The reason people may be aggravated by this post is because it tells us absolutely nothing. We saw the games and know RVP, Fab, Nasri and Walcott are good. The point is they have a price and you are yet to quantify it at all. Even in terms of % how often do they progress/win? Do you know anything in the slightest that the whole betting public don't know or do you think they have overestimated/underestimated something? I don't want to be rude but saying they are playing in front of their own fans as a prelude to anything is a waste of words

But maybe the fans inside the Emirates Library might actually make themselves heard today? Surely that would be a surprise and is not incorporated into the line?

I'm not claiming to know anything the general betting public don't know my initial claim was that at 4.0 I think they've been seriously underestimated. All we have to go on is last year's games and if we go on that Barcelona have a 100% record of qualification and 0% chance of winning at the Emirates.

If you want to know why I think they are value tonight then I'll point towards the facets that were missing last year. They have better strike options with van Persie and Chamakh (compared to Bendtner); Nasri is twice the player of last season and I think Wenger has had enough time (and is smart enough) to have devised a game plan to press Barca better.

For a team with so much class and talent Barcelona have not shown it in big away games (Champions League). Give me a choice of backing or laying 1.90 to beat a top EPL side then I'd lay every time!

That's better (said in the least patronising way possible..) No one expects you have to insider knowledge on Nasri's fitness. I agree on most of your points but I'm going to stick with my original analysis from the stats on the previous page. 60%+ possession, > 7 shots on target, > 2 goals goals scored for Barca. Gl!

@ blackfire. I was at Arsenal vs AZ last year with work and I promise you the AZ fans could be heard more than the Arsenal fans. They were crammed in like sardines but sang their hearts out! AZ got creamed though

I switched off at half time believing that my write-up would prove me to be a prophet. Did anything happen?

On a serious note, I think the 'Harlem Globetrotters' tag they will be given is unfair. They were in parts excellent, failed to capitalise and in football, you know, sht happens. Wenger got it right but most importantly his players brought their A game. Possession + accuracy of passing does invariably lead to wins but in this case (like the Inter game) it was a game of two halves. I've run out of cliches now. Who knows for the second leg - thoughts?

Was there value here? - does the result change your opinion? I Doubt it!

To be honest the fact that Barca in my opinion are very content with a draw or even a 1-2 might have been a little underrepresented in the line.

I actually couldn't resist and put my money where my mouth is and made a tiny profit.


Btw: When was the last time Barcelona actually won an away leg in the CL?

is cefis going to show his face in this thread again. jk he wasn't so bad. we've seen a lot worse in this forum

I was going to bet on Arsenal and though I didn't in the end, I thought the game was amazing to watch

Arsenal to qualify - 3.75 at extrabet is unbelievable value/arb

Puyol and Pique out is massive. Plus I backed Arsenal at 26 when they drew Barcelona so whatever bad things people say I'm going to ignore.

Benfica x Stuttgart
Probabilidades
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1.52 free money

Wished i made a bet yesterday on Arsenal!, They played phenomanal.

6/1 special on Paddy power, plus some cheeky asian handicaps on Betfair. Beautiful!!!

Right here. Somehow I'll get over making a wrong pick. Of course I have the feeling that at the 75th miniute you thought you had a big "L" coming your way. But they play 90. Nice win.

I know you are being sarcastic/pissy, but "best arsenal can possibly do is draw here" was a terrible call. And we all told you so before hand. If you hadn't been so obnoxious about it before the game, I wouldn't say anything further.

A terrible call huh. I dont think saying "Arsenal's best possible result is draw" was being obnoxious. That was and is still my opinion. Seems like it was pretty good handicapping to me. Your only gloating cause Arsenal came back and won and I know for God Damn sure you were you weren't saying this at 75'. I didnt know someone with over 4000 posts can be such a dick. I congratulated you on your win and said I was wrong. You can go F*** yourself.

lol

Well, "Arsenal's best possible result is draw" is a pretty ******ed statement and there is no way of justifiying it. How come Arsenal were offered at odds around 4.0 (implying a 25% chance) if it was an impossible result?

"Pretty good handcapping". Lol

Well, I posted the Inter video because I believed it was relevant - that Barca is not untouchable and they might even be ok with losing on the road in the first leg. That was called BS by theguywhodeclareddrawwasthebestarsenalcoulddo. Who also discredits any handicapping that this might have occured.

A guy in the Champions League SE thread said it best at halftime. Arsenal was being offered at +1600 to win at the time, and it was great value. Go look there if you truly believe everyone is analyzing this in hindsight. Hell, look back in this thread as well.

I swear it almost looked like Barca was trying to lose in the 2nd half. The goalkeeping on the RVP shot was atrocious, and on the 2nd goal, you can see Messi give it away in the opposing box and literally walk toward the opposing player to "make a challenge".

Sport Lisboa e Benfica amen!!

Geez. The numb nuts on SBR are driving me crazy. Really should stop posting there.

Sometimes trying to explain to them why they are wrong helps me think of things that are worthwhile.

Yesterdays line movement in the Gladbach - Schalke game helped me realize that premier football leagues are highly inefficient and everyone betting on them and setting the lines is a moron.

Are you sure? They're taking 20k+ bets on those games usually. Based on my experiences and no data the German league has been the least efficient out of germany/italy/spain/england but this is most likely due to small sample size.

I'm only 50% serious, obviously it's a sharp market. Bundesliga is the only one of the big ones I'm intimate enough with to trust my +EV in, but my guess would definitely be that it's the softest. Obviously it's not loleasy money but imo the market sometimes reacts to stuff in a pretty goddamn dumb way (player injuries/suspensions being the biggest), presenting some pretty juicy value consistantly. It probably applies to the other leagues aswell though.