Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 64 - Sports Betting

And he has a terrible relationship with the Director of Football at Real, often going over his head to the President.

The president has publically sided with the DoF a few times too which could cause a strain.

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02-14-2011 , 03:18 PM

#1577

Onitsuka

adept

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 742

And great write up Asty, good stuff.

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02-14-2011 , 08:36 PM

#1578

A234

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 497

Long time no see, just pop in to say thanks to Astyanax!

Ill consider those notes if I bet any... Since I like both sides (not from a betting standpoint).

I currently have no time to handycap any foreign league or CL/EL matchups

Regards
A234

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02-14-2011 , 08:46 PM

#1579

Astyanax

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,877

No problem, it was fun! There are some problems with it which Luego pointed out to me regarding Arsenal's tactics if they go one behind and how Busquet's figures are naturally skewed. I was expecting some debate on how Arsenal will break down Barca or how Wenger will approach the game. Let's face it - he got it wrong in the groups - they should never be playing Barca at this stage..

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02-15-2011 , 07:05 AM

#1580

That Foreign Guy

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,985

According to "bloke at the pub whose brother is the physio assistant" rumours I've been reading on Arsenal blogs the players are actually glad they got Barcelona. Allegedly they feel embarrassed by last year's performance and are looking forward to the chance to prove themselves. Probably just standard fan hype.

If they go out to Barca it will improve the chances of winning the league which is more important IMO. Maybe I'll do an accumulator Man Utd to go through, Barca to go through, Arsenal to win the league, doubt the correlation is enough for it to be actually +EV though.

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02-15-2011 , 09:35 AM

#1581

Astyanax

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,877

Interesting theory TFG - I don't buy it though!

In addition, strictly according to GE derived from the current AHC and Asian Totals, the correct price for Barcelona to win to nil was hovering around 3.9. On Betfair it is between 4 and 4.4 which seems reasonable now the market is liquid. My 11/4 quote was found in a rush to 'tip' something even though I was reluctant to suggest anything. 1.33 on 'no sending off' seems OK as well but as already stated, the market is just so bad-ass correct. Whatever value there may have been on Arsenal +0.5 at 2.13 has now gone at 2.01.

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02-15-2011 , 11:39 AM

#1582

bellini

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 49

milan tottenham over 2.5 at betfair 1.9

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02-15-2011 , 12:18 PM

#1583

steve555

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 135

î just bet a lil bit on tottenham

am i a big ****** for doing this?

just need little gamble

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02-15-2011 , 12:56 PM

#1584

That Foreign Guy

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,985

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve555

î just bet a lil bit on tottenham

am i a big ****** for doing this?

just need little gamble

Yes. Spurs suck. /troll.

I believe that any randomly selected bet will be -EV by about the bookie overround in that market. Line shopping reduces this, so I'd guess you're paying 3-8% of your wager for the fun of having action on the bet depending if you took the best price or just what 365 were offering.

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02-15-2011 , 01:07 PM

#1585

gaffon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 12,194

Milan (-0.75) fwiw, this can't be -EV... as betting against tottenham can't be -EV ... biased view obv

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02-15-2011 , 01:52 PM

#1586

OreosAndMilk

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,136

It has nothing to do with a biased view. If you're betting into a relatively efficient market which has vig/comission just because you wanted to gamble then that is -ev.

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02-15-2011 , 01:54 PM

#1587

steve555

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 135

i placed the bet on betfair i backed them @5,9

dont think spurs are that bad they will get their chances in the match.

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02-15-2011 , 02:34 PM

#1588

gaffon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 12,194

Quote:

Originally Posted by OreosAndMilk

If you're betting into a relatively efficient market which has vig/comission just because you wanted to gamble then that is -ev.

relatively efficient market which has vig/comission - agree, but I am betting vig free.
gamble for me is to put 10 times on number 17.

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02-16-2011 , 04:30 AM

#1589

SnotBoogy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 7,694

can/does anyone take soccer action via full tilt ITT? is that kosher for this thread?

looking to get action on the barca-arsenal over tomorrow. around 200. i'll escrow it to you.

pm if interested, will respond in the AM

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02-16-2011 , 08:59 AM

#1590

mjtaylor12

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 7

I'm a newbie on here, so a big hello to everyone.

After last night seeing Spurs dominate in the San Siro does it not make sense that English football is being under-rated ahead of the Arsenal-Barca game? I've backed Arsenal at 3.0 (draw no bet).

Guardiola has never won an away game in the knockout stages of the Champions League - surely Arsenal are a steal here??

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02-16-2011 , 09:48 AM

#1591

OreosAndMilk

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,136

posts like this tilt me so much

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02-16-2011 , 09:53 AM

#1592

SnotBoogy

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I think Arsenal does have a decent chance of winning, but it has nothing to do with Spurs "dominating" anything

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02-16-2011 , 10:01 AM

#1593

55offsuit

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 235

6.5 at Arsenal keeping a clean sheet. Seems really interesting.

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02-16-2011 , 10:19 AM

#1594

cefis21

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 472

I think you Arsenal backers are reaching. At best they get a draw. Barca is the best team in the world. 2u Barca -110.

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02-16-2011 , 10:21 AM

#1595

mjtaylor12

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 7

I'm not sure about the 6.5 Arsenal clean sheet, I think there will be a few goals - I think if you can 5.0 about Arsenal scoring in both halves then you're getting good value

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02-16-2011 , 10:26 AM

#1596

SnotBoogy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cefis21

I think you Arsenal backers are reaching. At best they get a draw. Barca is the best team in the world. 2u Barca -110.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMAiu7xmNQY

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02-16-2011 , 10:37 AM

#1597

cefis21

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 472

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnotBoogy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMAiu7xmNQY

That was last year's semi's. Inter's defense was a brick wall a year ago. BTW Inter is better than Arsenal. Why dont you show Liverpool raising their cups from the past if your going to bring up previous years' BS.

Maybe a draw.

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02-16-2011 , 10:38 AM

#1598

blackf1re

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 507

I don't think Arsenal will be humilated again tonight. Even Wenger is capable of learning from mistakes and the Arsenal players have already said they will press them better in midfield. Also Walcott will play who caused Barca quite a few problems last year. Betting-wise I think Astyanax summed it up perfectly in his post. Although the gambler in me might just put on a few quid on Arse +0.5 at odds against given that Barca will be confident of raping them in the return leg.

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02-16-2011 , 10:50 AM

#1599

SnotBoogy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cefis21

Eh, I just don't think automatically assuming a road win (or draw at worst) in a first leg against a top EPL team is so strong a move.

I could see first leg going 2-1 or 3-2 to arsenal and barcelona not really sweating it too bad on the return leg.

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02-16-2011 , 11:06 AM

#1600

mjtaylor12

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 7

Last season Barca were so much better than Arsenal in both legs but this Arsenal side will have learned from that plus they've improved a lot. Robin van Persie is fully fit, Fabregas and Nasri are capable of ripping open any defence - I'm not saying Arsenal can knock Barcelona out but in front of their own fans they have a chance of grabbing a first leg lead - and they're a huge price to boot.

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