No problem, it was fun! There are some problems with it which Luego pointed out to me regarding Arsenal's tactics if they go one behind and how Busquet's figures are naturally skewed. I was expecting some debate on how Arsenal will break down Barca or how Wenger will approach the game. Let's face it - he got it wrong in the groups - they should never be playing Barca at this stage..
According to "bloke at the pub whose brother is the physio assistant" rumours I've been reading on Arsenal blogs the players are actually glad they got Barcelona. Allegedly they feel embarrassed by last year's performance and are looking forward to the chance to prove themselves. Probably just standard fan hype.
If they go out to Barca it will improve the chances of winning the league which is more important IMO. Maybe I'll do an accumulator Man Utd to go through, Barca to go through, Arsenal to win the league, doubt the correlation is enough for it to be actually +EV though.
In addition, strictly according to GE derived from the current AHC and Asian Totals, the correct price for Barcelona to win to nil was hovering around 3.9. On Betfair it is between 4 and 4.4 which seems reasonable now the market is liquid. My 11/4 quote was found in a rush to 'tip' something even though I was reluctant to suggest anything. 1.33 on 'no sending off' seems OK as well but as already stated, the market is just so bad-ass correct. Whatever value there may have been on Arsenal +0.5 at 2.13 has now gone at 2.01.
I believe that any randomly selected bet will be -EV by about the bookie overround in that market. Line shopping reduces this, so I'd guess you're paying 3-8% of your wager for the fun of having action on the bet depending if you took the best price or just what 365 were offering.
It has nothing to do with a biased view. If you're betting into a relatively efficient market which has vig/comission just because you wanted to gamble then that is -ev.
After last night seeing Spurs dominate in the San Siro does it not make sense that English football is being under-rated ahead of the Arsenal-Barca game? I've backed Arsenal at 3.0 (draw no bet).
Guardiola has never won an away game in the knockout stages of the Champions League - surely Arsenal are a steal here??
I'm not sure about the 6.5 Arsenal clean sheet, I think there will be a few goals - I think if you can 5.0 about Arsenal scoring in both halves then you're getting good value
That was last year's semi's. Inter's defense was a brick wall a year ago. BTW Inter is better than Arsenal. Why dont you show Liverpool raising their cups from the past if your going to bring up previous years' BS.
I don't think Arsenal will be humilated again tonight. Even Wenger is capable of learning from mistakes and the Arsenal players have already said they will press them better in midfield. Also Walcott will play who caused Barca quite a few problems last year. Betting-wise I think Astyanax summed it up perfectly in his post. Although the gambler in me might just put on a few quid on Arse +0.5 at odds against given that Barca will be confident of raping them in the return leg.
That was last year's semi's. Inter's defense was a brick wall a year ago. BTW Inter is better than Arsenal. Why dont you show Liverpool raising their cups from the past if your going to bring up previous years' BS.
Maybe a draw.
Eh, I just don't think automatically assuming a road win (or draw at worst) in a first leg against a top EPL team is so strong a move.
I could see first leg going 2-1 or 3-2 to arsenal and barcelona not really sweating it too bad on the return leg.
Last season Barca were so much better than Arsenal in both legs but this Arsenal side will have learned from that plus they've improved a lot. Robin van Persie is fully fit, Fabregas and Nasri are capable of ripping open any defence - I'm not saying Arsenal can knock Barcelona out but in front of their own fans they have a chance of grabbing a first leg lead - and they're a huge price to boot.