^^Everything has a price as you well know. 7/2 (+350) for Arsenal to qualify (in 99% book) = 22.22%. If you think there is a 0% chance I believe you will be emptying the bank on it. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the true price is somewhere between 16% and 24% (what a statement!). Although we cannot envision it and I certainly see your point there are scenarios which could technically arise. If Walcott starts, he might give Abidal some problems - yellow/red/penalty and Arsenal hit them on the counter attack like Hercules as I mentioned earlier. Possession predictions might be wrong as well if Arshavin is not as wasteful as he's been. Also Nasri might be back in time which could well make a difference (0.15 shift increase in Arsenal's GE).

I'll post something more technical nearer the time but as Luego alluded to, clearly the bigger the game, the harder the get the jump (unless public money has weighted the line and is uncorrectable by sharp money). Even the certain bias for Barcelona or Mourinho as a coach is nice in theory but hard to quantify. Player to player match ups will add something extra to the price though.

i feel pretty sure that arsenal advances less than 1/5 times here

you mean "do not bet on RUSSIA in friendlies!" that nation is so corrupt, this game was more than likely over before it started.

Do you realize Real Madrid just got beaten by Osasuna?

Looking ahead to this weekend's Bundesliga action Schalke seem awfully short again. They have been absolutely atrocious lately and Magath still doesn't really know what his first XI is and what formation he should use. They have found the net only once in 2011 and face a Freiburg side that is unbeaten in 7. You can get Freiburg with a 3/4 ball head start atm.

So what price will you give me?

I'm an Arsenal fan but I'm waiting for the punters like Sayid who think Arsenal have literally no chance force the price up.

Barca are an excellent team, even I'll admit they are better than Arsenal and Arsenal's style is a poor matchup for Barca's... although a secret source inside Arsenal has released this record of a recent team meeting:



However, football really is a funny old game. Every year we see some random village team make it surprisingly deep in the FA Cup, in the world cup New Zealand nick a draw from Italy, Switzerland beat Spain, etc). I'd argue the disparity in skill between Barca and Arsenal is far less than in the examples above.

Besides, Arsenal have the most confident player in the history of football playing for them. The Danish Pele will not be afraid of Barca.

Most bookies have Arsenal at around 3/1 to advance, Betfair has 7/2.

I'll do someone's $15 to my $45 if they want a wee bet. Quote if interested.

Why would anyone bet with you if they can get +370 on betfair and certainly get paid?

4.85 @ Bet24 is the best I could find.

Americans can't bet on Betfair can they?

Plus its only a bit of a laugh, Ive laid a few Gooner mates 3/1 on this already. Arsenal have drifted since I took those bets because of injuries.

If you have access to Bet365: Kuala Lumpur +1.5 @ 1.725. SBO/12bet no-vig lines are ~1.40. Huge value. Starts in 15min.

If any of you guys fancy throwing $20 into a Champions League pool then let us know over at SE Champions League thread.

Details are in this post:

6 spots left.

well the line was at 1.28 or 1.29 to advance when i fell in love with it. i guess it is still okay at 1.225. i'd say like 1.19 is about right.

i hate arsenal. they are just too small, not physical enough, they are babies. just like man city are babies. i should have bet against them today. man city outplayed man u. for entire half but they can't win just because they are man city and man u. is man u. then when man city fell behind they looked a lot worse. they have no fighting spirit. i saw the same thing happen to arsenal.

yeah, it is one thing to lose in the liga. and another for mourinho to lose a 2 game series in UEFA. mourinho's record is too good. he is too solid to be surprise dby some goofy upstart french team.

this whole ridiculous mourinho persona cult pushed by every single wannabe sharp that doesn't understand sample size just makes me even more convinced. if anyone wants barca -119 or real -106, let me know.

Lyon who knocked out Real Madrid last year =/= some goofy upstart french team

luego, last year he took inter, which was clearly an inferior team to barca, and won the UEFA, all cause of his coaching

Damn dude, what happened with R Madrid? lost his coaching skills?

Your opinions are often way too emotionally based.

Whilst I appreciate Mourinho as a manager, Inter may not be as good as as Barca, I would hardly say "inferior" is correct. The reason they beat Barca over 2 legs was tactical prowess, one could argue a strong case, if the Champions League was single game knockouts after the group stages, Inter wouldn't have got there, but alas the money in the game is far more important than exciting football. Inter went to Nou Camp that year with one plan only, not to play football.

Mourinho brought the most expensive team in the world, the most expensive player in the world, and got the beating of his career!

Lyon, have knocked them out more than once in the last 10 years of the knockout stages, so I wouldn't rule them out.

mourinho also got schooled 5-0, with a far stronger team quality wise, in the last el classico. oops. he has also made it clear he doesn't like it in madrid, starting fights with the board and bitching about the squad all the time. that's some weird ****ing football math that tells you "if inter + mourinho = win champions league, then better team + mourinho = lock of the century!!1111111111"

ooh quick brag: 6-0 in german football this week, 2-3 the week before and 12-1 the two weeks before that!

I disagree with you that they knocked them out because of tactical prowess.

In the first leg one of Inters goals was offside and the second leg Bojans goal was legit that got chopped off, that would have seen them equal the tie and go through.

My thoughts on the Barca game from a betting perspective. Tl;dr etc and I wrote it in a semi-rush. I hope there is something useful in amongst the bllsht. I am aware I sometimes take Barca's side and don't expand on some of the pros for Arsenal but overall I think it balanced with the information provided.


Below are three recent Barcelona matches, two Arsenal matches and the two legs of last year’s Quarter Final.

From these and other research it is possible to make a number of assumptions.


Barcelona’s most likely back four will be Alves, Pique, Milito/Abidal and Maxwell with Puyol injured. Home and away Barca’s wing backs play as just that leaving the central defenders back with ordinarily Busquets filling in when defending.

[IMG][/IMG]


Busquets will have Xavi to his right and Iniesta to his left. Messi will play through the middle flanked by Pedro/Affelay with Villa on the left but roaming the centre interchanging with Messi. In reality Barca players will shift positions with often plenty of time to recover due to their amazing ability to recover the ball, helped by oppositions simply clearing it.

Arsenal have finally worked out the Djourou and Koscielny is the safest central pairing along whilst Clichy and Sagna pick themselves.

[IMG] [/IMG]

When fit, Wilshere and Song play centrally behind Fabregas. Walcott plays RW and Arshavin plays left but wanders in centrally. Even at home, Arsenal rarely play Chamakh and RVP together not forgetting Bendtner. Considering how outstanding Arsenal were against Wolves, he will likely pick the same lineup with only Nasri replacing Arshavin if fit (still tbc).

The Stats

I want to briefly go over the goal expectancy stats as they are for the most part incorporated into the price.


Premier League:

Arsenal score 2.15 gpg and concede 1.03 gpg. At home Arsenal score 2.23 gpg and concede 1.30 gpg

La Liga:

Barca score 3.09 gpg and concede 0.5 gpg. At home Barca score 2.83 gpg and concede 0.58 gpg.

Champions League

Arsenal score 3 gpg and concede 1.16 gpg. At home Arsenal score 4.66 gpg and concede 0.66 gpg.

Barcelona score 2.33 gpg and concede 0.5 gpg. At home Barca score 3 gpg and concede 0.33 gpg

What do these stats tell us?

Due to the limited sample of Champions League games and my unwillingness to trawl through previous seasons, as there have been a number of player changes, it can be clearly seen that whilst both teams score, Barca have the better defence. In addition, Barca are not inconvenienced in the slightest playing away from home in La Liga whilst in the Champs league their goals dip. However, this can be excused since they played Rubin, Copenhagen and Panathanaikos. Anyone who has watched any of these teams play will understand how defensive they play. Rubin’s match against Copenhagen at times was appalling.

Arsenal only score marginally better at home and in fact concede more goals at home than away. I believe this is because teams have started to adapt to an ‘all or nothing’ attitude when playing Arsenal away from home whilst this is not the case with teams against Barca although there have been exceptions. Teams will defend for 0:0s with Barca slowly (and sometimes devastatingly quickly) breaking them down. You may be interested to know that home advantage in La Liga is historically higher (5%+) than the EPL meaning that Barca’s away stats are all the more impressive notwithstanding the possibly poorer quality of the league. Some might blame this on the quality of opposition but it is Barca’s mindset I am interested in. To clear this first point up of La Liga being hugely inferior, Villareal and Sevilla’s Europa League performance this year and Atletico’s victory last year may go some way to dispel this myth.

Some potential matchups

Fabregas vs Busquets

These two will be meeting at some point during the match. Fabregas is the key through the centre and Busquets is the key buffer. The following image shows how many successful passes Busquets completed. If he completes this many again, he is winning the battle with Fabregas. Please compare his number with Arsenal’s DMCs. This leg was with Arsenal at home. In the second leg Fabregas was missing and we know what happened there.



Whilst this graphic proves little besides how incredible Xavi is (he thoroughly dominates this category in every match), Busquets league stats show something interesting.

In 16 matches in La Liga, he has committed just 19 fouls and drawn 48 fouls. As a DMC, no one comes close to this statistic (for instance Alex song has committed 52 fouls compared to drawing 26 fouls). Fabregas has similar stats but he is of course more attacking minded. This shows that Busquets is able to break up the play fairly and has more opportunities to make passes and is fouled in the process leading to more attacking situations. His stats in the champs league are similar.

[IMG] [/IMG]


[IMG] [/IMG]


Villa and Messi vs Koscielny/Djourou

These stats show many things. Villa gets the opportunity to shoot an extraordinary amount of times. Increased shots always lead to increased goals when examining statistics. I argue he can gets this many shots due to the accuracy of Xavi and Iniesta and Busquets passing, often well judged and into space. Who has had the most shots in Arsenal’s champs league games? Andrei Arshavin (who you do not want as your most potent attacking player) with 12. Messi has had 33, Villa 21. No longer can we ignore statistics blaming the league of the two teams. There is no question that Villa and Messi are given more opportunities to score than RVP and or any combination of Nasri/Arshavin/Fabregas. Arsenal as a team do take quite a few shots with people popping up from all places but let’s face it; You want your shots concentrated to your best players. In Barca’s case, Messi and Villa who have outstanding conversion rates from shots to shots on goal, to goals are given a disproportionate amount of chances.

OK, ok let’s not carried away with one particular statistic – Xavi’s passing stats. Xavi and co did this against Inter last year seen below.



How did Inter then manage to win? Well firstly, Inter well good enough defensively to be able to concede such incredible possession (72%) without conceding filed position. They pressed high up the pitch and Arsenal unfortunately do not have a player quite like Maicon. Watch his run for Inter’s second gola providing Inter with an extra outlet after Pandev and Milito linked up. Maicon committed two fouls and Zanetti just one, abnormal against Inter. Arsenal concede more proven by stats and their performances this year and are incapable of playing quite like Inter did even if Fab > Sneij.

I am not going to break down individual performances such as Barca’s 5:0 of Real or Arsenal’s capitulation against Newcastle. The stats do, for the most part tell all. For the rest of the match-ups I’m sure you’ll have your own opinions and you should draw from some of the stats and knowledge of some of the games played this season and last.

Let’s move on to some odds now.

On 31/03/2010 with Arsenal playing at home, Barcelona -0.5 were 2.39. I am quoting this as their odds even though I’m sure slightly better could be had. Today Barcelona -0.5 is 1.92. The massive question is do the odds take into account the growing disparity between the two teams? Well for the most part they do. Again, there is little point breaking down GE and supremacy. In the most basic of terms, Barca have no question improved with Villa and Arsenal’s defence has been suspect though offensively they have become more consistent. With Nasri not guaranteed as well, Barcelona must be shorter than last year. But could they be a little shorter?

Again, when we compare with Barca’s odds vs. Inter last year, the -0.5 2.46 quote doesn’t inspire much confidence in the odds today of 1.92. But when was the last time Barcelona were 1.92 away from home? I will tell you when! 19/01/2011 when they played Real Betis away in the Copa Del Rey. They had won the first leg 5:0 and were resting Villa and Iniesta and Busquets with Messi and Xavi not expected to complete the first half. Comparing Betis and Arsenal is slightly ridiculous but it’s just for a brief comparison. Against Rubin in the group stages (who enjoy incredible home adv) Barca were 1.70 -0.5. Against a new improved and defensively competent Copenhagen, Barca were 1.40 -0.5. This goes somewhere to show that the 1.92 is slightly generous but not by much when viewed alongside my match predictions. I have been very pro Barca in this write-up but it has been merely to justify their odds-on status against a team like Arsenal. If there is any value, it is extremely thin and even Nasri’s playing status might move the price either way between fair and unfair.


So where is the value?

Well, I’ve been leaning towards a Barcelona related market for some time now. There is one market that sticks out.


[IMG][/IMG]

Ordinarily this market carries a large vig but since 7 bookmakers are offering betting a good price crops up from time to time. This market is based on GE but there is some degree of opinion involved. Now, I have combed through every top price correct score and even if you were to dutch (back with different stakes to achieve the same profit) 0:1, 0:2, 0:3 and 0:4, you would still only get 2.78 which excludes Betfair’s commission. 2.75 there is at least reasonable and if you believe in the statistics I quoted and envisage a similar match to what I do 11/4 (3.75) + 275 looks better than most of the other markets offered. It also allows for such unlikely but possible results of 0:5, 0:6 and 0:7!

On a serious note, if Barca lead 0:1 at any point, Wenger will know two away goals will be impossible to overcome at the Nou Camp. Therefore some defensive strategy would need to be applied or at the very least he will not go all out attack. Although Barca could be defensively minded while the match is level, they will know too that an away goal would make a considerable difference. In any event, the possession they will no doubt enjoy and the shots they are likely to have combined with Arsenal’s poor defence and the match up talked about, they will be scoring. Will they concede? Who knows but if they can prevent Ronaldo, Ozil, Benzema and De Maria from scoring all the while banging in five goals, 11/4 seems reasonable.


Sit back, relax and wait for Barcelona to score. Then approach the television, hands clasped, and pray for no Arsenal goals.

lol. you find my points so poor you make these stupid logic jokes at me? chill bro

i am interested to read more about how mourinho doesn't like in real madrid. ithought he said it was his dream to be the coach of this team. link?

not gonna dig up the link, but it was right around after real got their ass handed to them by barca. he said he is considering leaving real in the summer because he wasn't satisfied with how the board treated him or something

He also wanted to sign a striker back in summer but the board wasn't interested. Then Higuain got injured and Mourinho was pissed off and eventually signed Adebayor in the January transfer window.