i ended up laying off and losing 1unit on Nova ML (NCAA BB). a h well back to the drawing board.

damn.... the scouses.....bad wkend for me...time to fight again soon...

We might suppose that shots on target make corners but........
Premier League Average last 3 seasons:
Home
Corners per game - Shots on targ per game
6.0094786729857819 - 5.6729857819905213
6.2157894736842105 - 5.9289473684210526
6.2473684210526315 - 5.6763157894736842

Away
4.8341232227488151 - 7.6113744075829383
4.9763157894736842 - 7.7236842105263157
4.8552631578947368 - 7.4789473684210526

...........Notice how Home has less shots on target but more corners

I think it makes sense. Teams away from home relax and invite pressure leaving space down the wings leading to corners for home teams. Using that same logic, since it is the away team with lack of time on the ball they resort to (often speculative) shots which may or may not lead to corners..That was slightly confusing in my head.

I suppose any generalisation is bad though - it is clearly team dependent.

Just been going through a database of matches, I was surprised to find that Away teams take more shots and get more shots on target(though the conversion shots/shotsontarget rate is similar for both home/away at around %50).

What stands out though is the conversion of shotsontarget/goals which, for home, is far superior. I'm at my other PC but I think it was something like %25 home and %15 away.
It looks (to me) the home side is getting higher quality shots on target, which in turn lead to more goals or corners. As opposed to away's lower quality shots on target which presumable are more likely to be saved and kept in play.

uh... how big is your database? i doubt this is true at all

You doubt what's true?
The database goes back 3 seasons. It's not just Premier League, other leagues have shown supremacy in conversion of shotsontarget/goals by the home side.

i'm checking right now and the home team definitely undoubtedly takes more shots AND gets more shots on goal than the away team in EVERY league.

can someone explain soccer live pinny to me

i took these bets before the game

Bari (Italy Cup)/AC Milan (Italy Cup) Over 3 -110
AC Milan (Italy Cup) -1½,-2 -119 vs Bari (Italy Cup)
AC Milan (Ita Cup) -1½ -146 vs Bari (Italy Cup)

it is 2-0 Milan at HT. Pinny live soccer has -0.5 & -1 only at -110

I thought that price was only for the 2H but the o/u is 3.5 which seems like the o/u for the full game.

edit: nevermind i'm an idiot Unless otherwise specified, all Live Soccer Asian Handicap wagers will be settled based on the goals scored in the remainder of the match during Regulation Time. When scoring Live Soccer Asian Handicap wagers, goals scored before the wager is accepted are not included.

I just checked the pre-parsed data for one season and you're right.......so this means an error in my SQL query or in parsing the data..Thanks

is this asian cup fixed? i've been crushing closing lines and i'm 1-8

heavy on o2 and uzbekistan -0.5 if you want to fade

i think that since you are 1 and 8 you are a good better and definitly due for a win. i'm going to make your bets my pick of the day.

already over both bets won

Not fixed - you were probs joking but in my line of work I take that accusation seriously! Market certainly not efficient for Asian Cup. Hard to gauge quality of players who play in leagues like Uzbekistan with virtually no coverage, especially since Uzbeks changed their team significantly. I would say beating the closing line is less meaningful than the lines on other competitions/leagues.

@thornton: Although your shots database was inaccurate, was your corners/shots statement correct? I don't keep corner data but shots on target are interesting esp for IR goal minutes on the right person.

good job on uzbek and the over today boys

I'd parsed the data incorrectly, looked at it briefly last night and I must've parsed away shots as home shots and vice versa.
I'll correct it and post the stats as you've asked about it.

It's kinda a weird one since you'd think that shots on target make corners and corners make shots(which make more shots on target and then more corners).

Maybe goals/(Shots on target + corners) would be of interest.

Any tips for Prem League tomorrow?

gazo still not here?

Regards
A234

****, that reminds me I need to do my fantasy football.

Any one offering Andy Carroll goal lines for the rest of the season?

Sunderland look decent value @ 4.2 on betfair

so, i don't know much about soccer, but is a 4-0 lead at the 68 minute mark usually a done deal?

nothing like losing a big bet after thinking you won.

what the hell happened?

It's the first time in Premier league history (20 years?) that a side has not won after being up 4-0. So yeah it's usually a done deal. I had a draw bet but am an Arsenal fan so not too happy about winning it.

Hello.
Apologies if this does not go here but I have got no money on any betting site's and would like to bet a little on Liverpool tomorrow for a sweat.

Im looking to bet about $10-$20 with a draw being a wash, I will give whoever takes the bet bookies odds (William Hill) who have Liverpool at 10/3, so $10 returns $43.

PM if interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zAIRe7j5Go - not fixed btw. 4-0 to 4-4 with only 12 left. Newcastle had a man advantage! Great game and week for the Prem as Barcelona and Real have been nicking all the headlines recently.

I totally disagree. Fixed is a strong statement. But the ref certainly game Newcastle the chance to come back. I've seen worse actions then Diaby's push and no card given. Diaby gets the red. Plus the second penalty also should not of been rewarded. Thank God I'm not a Arsenal backer. Go Blues and Torres!!!!