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Originally Posted by Decimal
bw89 - never really had a proper look into it even though big odds props used to be my forte, kinda hard to calculate the interrelation for it.
Presumably you already had value on the first gs or the CS for it to be value on the SC?
I derive the CS simply from the market supremacy/total goals, work out the FGS myself though. Often it is indeed just the market underrating the player but sometimes the SC is just off for some reason or other, though this is rare.
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I've only ever made sucker bets on scorecasts, but aside from the obvious value on CS / first goal markets I wonder if there any possible correlation between certain scorers and certain scores (eg if Alex Song scores first it's more likely to be a low scoring Arsenal win because it means the legit scorers are having bad days). That's probably idiot punter talk and even the slight chance it isn't is beyond my current database skills to test.
Actually had thought about that but you could easily argue that Alex Song is just as likely to score first in a good performance than a bad as he could be getting more chances created for him. I imagine it's something that could be researched if you collected enough data - a lot of it mind. It's probably something I'll look into after the season's over.