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Old 11-13-2010, 12:06 PM   #1426
Tract0rDan
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yes come on chesterfield!
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Old 11-13-2010, 12:40 PM   #1427
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Haha so rigged. Burton back in the lead.
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Old 11-17-2010, 01:22 PM   #1428
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

anyone know why Argentina are the favorites in todays friendly vs Brazil? It's on neutral pitch...
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Old 11-17-2010, 01:42 PM   #1429
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

also if anyone knows if good sites with soccer props with yes/no options, please let me know! expekt has them but i'm banned there.
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Old 11-17-2010, 02:53 PM   #1430
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by luegofuego View Post
anyone know why Argentina are the favorites in todays friendly vs Brazil? It's on neutral pitch...
because Brazil lacks Messi duh
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Old 11-18-2010, 09:33 AM   #1431
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by luegofuego View Post
also if anyone knows if good sites with soccer props with yes/no options, please let me know! expekt has them but i'm banned there.
What props are you talking about exactly? Player props as in not scoring and stuff?
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Old 11-18-2010, 10:29 AM   #1432
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yeah for example "Will D. Drogba score a goal? Yes 2.20/No 1.60" etc. Other props would be cool too.
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Old 11-18-2010, 11:17 AM   #1433
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by luegofuego View Post
Yeah for example "Will D. Drogba score a goal? Yes 2.20/No 1.60" etc. Other props would be cool too.
William Hill?
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Old 11-18-2010, 01:14 PM   #1434
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

seems like the only places that has them have banned me already
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Old 11-18-2010, 02:38 PM   #1435
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Well quit crushing their prop lines :P
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Old 11-18-2010, 02:44 PM   #1436
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

or go on spreads like I told ya
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Old 11-18-2010, 03:20 PM   #1437
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Spread firms prices on Player Goals tend to be pretty solid imo, at least on the buy side.

Supposedly you get shut down very quickly if you start Selling players in any decent size.
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Old 11-18-2010, 03:59 PM   #1438
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Last time I checked the spread firms(SI,SE) only accepts customers from the UK, although this was about 2005 so not sure if this has changed?

Player not to score is pretty much only offered by expekt and UB afaik, although I guess you could lay anytime gs on bf.

Bluesq offers some props such as player to score and team win game, although the margin is super high so not sure if this is beatable.
Think they offer player to be booked and stuff as well but only the yes side, if you do pick them off on these you'll be limited fairly quickly.

Even if there's some good value on props I think you're better off not betting props what so ever as you'll just get your accounts cut too quickly.
That's pretty much how I killed most of my accs instead of betting something else with bigger limits and turnover.
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Old 11-18-2010, 04:48 PM   #1439
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Are you counting First Goalscorer and the like as props? If so, every firm under the sun offers those.

edit: nm, see luego was asking for lay-type options.

Quote:

Bluesq offers some props such as player to score and team win game, although the margin is super high so not sure if this is beatable.
Haven't really looked into those but scorecasts ARE beatable if you look around [although tends to be only in high liquidity Betfair games - Premiership/UCL]. Your $EV there is so small though unless you have a HUGE bankroll/massively overstake.
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:01 PM   #1440
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

skybet offered them on the WC. got booted pretty quickly after i bet the under on 75% of their goalscorer totals and went 12-1 or something.

asty is right about spread betting though, only annoying thing is that they don't take neteller...
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:03 PM   #1441
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

or laying the any time goalscorers at betfair. i have no idea how i missed that option, lol.
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Old 11-18-2010, 06:46 PM   #1442
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I've got all I can stomach on this one so I'll share:

Kick off in a couple hours.

Argentina Primera B - Almirante Brown vs Defensa y Justica. @ 4.1 Bwin

It's 100% a steam play. I claim no handicapping skillz. I got my bet on at 4.6 elsewhere but I still think there's a little value at this price.

Last edited by That Foreign Guy; 11-18-2010 at 06:49 PM. Reason: Looks like I got the bet in on time but the post too late.
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:14 PM   #1443
Decimal
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bw89 View Post
Haven't really looked into those but scorecasts ARE beatable if you look around [although tends to be only in high liquidity Betfair games - Premiership/UCL]. Your $EV there is so small though unless you have a HUGE bankroll/massively overstake.
What I described is actually called a wincast, although I seriously doubt SCs are beatable.

Luego : Aren't you in Sweden? Pretty sure spreads will only accept UK residents as customers due to different licensing laws.
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Old 11-18-2010, 11:22 PM   #1444
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Can assure you they are.

There's nothing fundamentally about that that makes them unbeatable.

Quote:
or laying the any time goalscorers at betfair. i have no idea how i missed that option, lol.
It's possible to win but difficult, depends a lot on your stakes mind. Are you planning on laying the money up there or putting up your own offers?

Quote:
skybet offered them on the WC. got booted pretty quickly after i bet the under on 75% of their goalscorer totals and went 12-1 or something.
That was brilliant, won 27% from them...unders on players who were known to be reserves...easy money.
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Old 11-19-2010, 04:07 AM   #1445
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Decimal View Post
What I described is actually called a wincast, although I seriously doubt SCs are beatable.

Luego : Aren't you in Sweden? Pretty sure spreads will only accept UK residents as customers due to different licensing laws.
It seemed like they had no problems with EU residents from what I could gather from the e-mails etc. I haven't tried it yet because of the fees and hassles of using moneybookers or a credit card. Some people have given me the impression that the firms don't give you a very long leash before limiting, making the worth of spread betting questionable at all. We'll see...

And agreed on the SC. You could probably find one or two ONCE IN A WHILE that has some miniscule amount of EV, but I would never waste any time analyzing the market. Just not worthwhile. Unless you have some kind of automatization.
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Old 11-19-2010, 07:22 AM   #1446
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

From my limited experience with betfair I have seen on those scorer markets you can only get down about $50 or something ridiculously small.
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Old 11-19-2010, 08:37 AM   #1447
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Depends in what game it is. The liquidity in say, Bundesliga Saturday afternoon games tends to be non-existent, you can probably back about 100 worth of a player. No such problem in the Premiership, Barca/Real madrid games though.

Quote:
And agreed on the SC. You could probably find one or two ONCE IN A WHILE that has some miniscule amount of EV, but I would never waste any time analyzing the market. Just not worthwhile. Unless you have some kind of automatization.
I have a model yea. It's essentially a derivative of the FGS/AGS markets anyway so it's not loads extra work if you're looking into FGS/AGS already.

Quote:
Some people have given me the impression that the firms don't give you a very long leash before limiting, making the worth of spread betting questionable at all. We'll see...
I got limited from Spin despite not really betting in that much size or volume. Only took 10 or so bets iirc. Spreadex I'm ok with I think but I think the last bet I had with them was about half a year ago, although tbf I haven't really looked closely at their prices for a while now. Just not time efficient.
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Old 11-19-2010, 09:07 AM   #1448
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yeah that's what I figured (the model). Should be easy enough to build a spreadsheet for it.

I built one for other derivatives that hardly ever managed to find value in anything unless the main markets was off to start with. I guess that's a good thing since it nailed the bookies simplistic derivative pricing method pretty spot on, and with some extra variables included for accuracy, it would probably be a piece of cake to find value.
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Old 11-19-2010, 10:35 AM   #1449
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

How quickly would expekt limit you if you bet say 200-300 on the under on props only?
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Old 11-19-2010, 10:57 AM   #1450
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I think expekt might be dumb enough to only ban you if you win so it's one giant freeroll in either case
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