Quote:
Originally Posted by luegofuego
maybe you should stop taking ******** payouts at shady derivative markets when the main markets, who are based on the same thing, offer better odds?
This. Your handicapping seems fine although I believe you will struggle to beat major markets with publicly available information, especially betting in the favourite-over direction.
However when you don't take the best price available for the result you're seeking (or the best result for the same price) you are setting fire to money.
An obvious example is that DNB = AH0, but off the top of my head - European handicap draw is the same as favourite to win by exactly X, 0-0 draw is the same as under 0.5, dutching the 1-0s is the same as under 1.5.
For luego's example - use the correct score market to work out the probability you are giving up on Chelsea 1-0 (the only win to nil result you are turning in to a loss) vs the value you are getting on 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 (may as well stop there). If those three combined has higher implied probability than 1-0 then Chelsea -1.5 is a better bet.