only 1 of the 6 today was o2.5 ... the rest were o3... juice was still a bit against me tho... ajax was o3.5! ahha

Fairy muff! Just imagine you'd bought the goals on the spreads in the P.S.V - Feyernoord game! Now that game was incredible!

asty,

bet365 actually has stale PL odds fairly often, especially on the AH markets. i've mostly been noticing it when looking a few days in advance though. and it's never ever by much, but enough for slight +EV anyways.

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football...n/draw-no-bet/

Hello all. I think we can see the 1.8 is clear value. It is much shorter in Asia (there hasn't been a huge move, it is just a pricing error). In fact, if you take out the draw from their 1X2 betting, the dnb is bigger here meaning they are just muppets. Enjoy.

Currently I use an average of SBO and 188 as my "most accurate bookie line" in my model for all football. Is this good enough or do I need to be league specific?

I use it to check I am not wildly out - basically I only have a bet if I am within 10% of the most accurate bookie line AND can find a better line than my expected fair odds. This was put in to save me from having to pay attention the news too much because there came a point where getting a "better" price was actually a tarp.

By this I mean (for example) bets at 3% better than my fair price were breaking even, at 6% were profitable, at 12% were epic win, but then 15% were slightly above breakeven and 20% were getting killed. I manually investigated and it was stuff like key injuries, motivation problem games etc so these are not games I should play straight from the model.

Is the model only accurate if it is near the sharpest odds available (I think this might be a big problem)?

If you've had to manually alter your picks, then you've altered the model and will need to test it by eliminating games before you know the result.

some ideas for the weekend:

Blackpool v West Brom

Over 2.5 goals

Explained this one previously.

Fulham v Wigan

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.7 bet365

Yeah so both Wigan and Fulham are lacking goals.

Wigan rested Rodallega and have Boselli returning who are both legitimate goal threats on their day. As well as the in form N'zogbia who should start after being rested for the Carling Cup as well. That said as a team Wigan are goal shy and don't attack well. Fulham aren't much better and don't have even a 10 goal a season striker imo. With Bobby Zamora injured they are looking pretty desperate for goals.

The games that Fulham have been involved in that have breached the 2.5 goal line have mostly been when they've lost to good teams like Spurs and Man utd rather than scoring plenty of goals themselves.

The last 13 meetings between these two has gone under 2.5 goals as well. So with both teams looking pretty incapbable of scoring i'd back the under here.


gl

Arsenal v West Ham

Over 11 corners @ 1.8 Bet365

Alright, so i can never resist Arsenal for their high corner frequencies and this game is no exception imo. They pretty much win the corners match in every game but there is definitely no value for me in a -6 handicap or the odds offered on them winning the corners match.

So my attention turns to the total number of corners.

With Arsenal playing their attacking brand of football at home against a tired and very poor West Ham side, i think Arsenal will basically run the hammers over. With the return of the likes of Chamakh, Arshavin and Nasri i can see Arsenal going over 9 corners themselves. Lots of play in behind the wing backs,as well as blocked crosses and shots saved forcing the corners. With West Ham being forced to open their play they might grab a few themselves to help us out.

If we look back over the last 6 meetings between these two sides they're averaging 13 corners in total each game. Worringly the last encounter produced just 6 corners in total but this is pretty much an anomaly in light of the other totals they've racked up.

Blackburn v Chelsea

Chelsea to win to nil @ 2.25 bet365

Ok so i'm going a bit nuts with tons of bets on this weekend but i keep seeing good spots.

This one sticks out for me as excellent value. Chelsea are argueably the best team in the premiership this season and they can do the business away from home as well. Blackburn have absolutely no character this season at all. They used to be able to bash teams about with their physicality but they can't even do that anymore and are just poor. They don't create chances, they have a poor defence and are overall a very bad side in terms of quality with the ball. They just have nothing for me.

Chelsea have it all on the other hand and are looking like they could run away with the title. They're solid defensively with Alex/Terry and Cole at wingback, with Bosingwa also back now.They create tons of chances for their host of capable strikers/midfielders and Cole/Bosingwa act like wing forwards with their forward runs for the full 90mins. Even without Lampard tomorrow they should have too much quality for a pathetic Rovers.

Blackburn have only managed to score once in the last 6 premiership meetings vs Chelsea and don't look like they'll score tomorrow either.

Price has moved against you on the Chelsea to win to nil bet, can get 2.5 at paddy power now.

Wolves vs Man City under 2.5 Goals @ 1.86

Manc like to have his team play 4-3-3 with more influence on the midfield 3 being industrial players, this leed to a lot of city goals coming from moments of individual brilliance as there is no solidity between attack and M.F.Tevez has got over 70% of citys goals this season and im not sure this system can work without him (im hoping balotelli doesn't fill the role well)
It will be interesting to hear the team news esp after the last away game when Manc tryed a more adventuress 4-4-2 against blackpool but got no success until he moved back to a 4-3-3 with Silva coming on. Wolves are the only team who havent kept a clean sheet this season but having looked at them they play a very deep pressing games, McCarthy has his team well organized and have Henry back to help keep things tight.

Dutching 0:1, 0:2, 0:3 and 0:4 would be 2.68 on betfair.

I like this bet, blackburns style should be lees effective against terry and Alex, it aslo helps that Chelsea always play at least one D.M. This should help with breaking balls and covering.

This sounds better

With the 5% commision you are only giving up 0.046 which I'd take to cover 5-0+

Calculated after commission but only with prices between the back and the lay which could get matched. Not saying it is a value pick.

Ok so this one came in with Fulham winning 2-0. I think i underestimated the effects of playing in the Carling Cup on Tuesday night and Wigan were the weaker side throughout. Fulham dominated with plenty of possesion and could have easily scored more than the 2. I don't think that's because they are particularly good but mainly because of the lag Wigan experienced from the CC.

So although this one came in, it wasn't in the fashion i expected but did continue the stats trend. In the stats we trust i guess.

Ok disappointing with the game totalling exactly 11 corners. Arsenal weren't as comfortable as many expected them to be but they did enough to dominate the corners as always.

If Rob Green wasn't in such fine form and Arsenal were a bit luckier, then a goal could've been scored much earlier and the game could've opened up enough to get us the extra corner. But it wasn't to be.


Yeah so similar to the Arsenal game in that nobody really expected the bigger team to have any trouble here but Rovers weren't having any of that.

They had the better of the first half with plenty of chances. Both Dioufs were looking in good form and they really could've scored 2 or 3 goals before Chelsea equalised.

Eventually Chelsea's quality and championship winning determination told though. Anelka finishing well on the counter to equalise.

Rovers would've felt like they deserved at least one point here today but it wasn't to be. Ivanovic popped up with a late header to break the hearts of Rovers fans and to confirm Chelsea's title quality, winning when you could argue they were only worthy of a point.


Hopefully Blackpool and West Brom don't party too hard this weekend and are fit and well enough to score plenty of goals on Monday night

Yeah so this one came in tonight. Blackpool 2 - 1 West Brom.

Pretty much as expected there were tons of chances but Blackpool just didn't put away any of their chances and were guilty of 21 missed attempts tonight. West Brom were reduced to 9 men going in at half time with Blackpool leading 1-0. Many expected the second half to be a route but it in fact made it harder for 'pool.

Di matteo is no mug and hauled off striker Fortune in place of Dorrans who is harder working and more defensive. They set up to compact the play in their half and spoil the game essentially and they did a good job of it.

Not a great footballing spectacle overall. Mulumbu's goal was pretty good on the counter attack, showing some stepovers to the defender and finishing nicely to make it 2-1.

Will post some more if ppl like the bets/analysis. Might make my own thread coz i'm kinda hijacking this one :P

Yeh keep posting.

I ended up arbing out of the bet at half time, knew it wouldn't be a total route vs 9 men. Good pick, cheers.

Tottenham v Inter

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.910 with 1*****

Alright quick one for tomorrow. I'm absolutely stunned at this price and i would get on it ASAP because it will surely come down fast. It just represents such great value imo.

The last meeting between these two produced 7 goals and both teams are high scoring generally.

Spurs will have Bale on the left who is in great form and i'm sure the Italians will hate the sight of him again. Lennon on the right should also pose plenty of problems of his own. Also the magical Van Der Vaart is set to start overcoming a slight hamstring problem which is great news for every neutral. The guy is just a wonderful footballer and can unlock a defense with his brillance, he seems to have a great understanding with Crouch and i can't wait to see him play tomorrow night.

Defensively Spurs will be missing King and Dawson which can only spell defensive **** ups and at least one goal for the European champions Inter. Second choice Cudicini is in tomorrow night but i think that will work against us because he is a better keeper than Gomes imo.

Julio Cesar is out for this one which should aid Spurs' cause in scoring with Luca Castellazzi making only his 2nd Champions league appearance. But with Inter having their very own Dutch magician in Sneijder they are capable of scoring one themselves. Sneijder, like Van Der Vaart, is capable of unlocking the defense with his awesome technique and can fire powerful and accurate shots to score goals of his own. He should also supply the free scoring Eto'o who is always hungry for goals.

Pandev is also a very talented forward and he should be helped by the attacking power of Brazilian wing back Maicon down the right side.

Tottenham pretty much only know one way to play and that is to attack attack attack. Should be a really open game with both teams scoring and hopefully plenty of goals from two very talented sides.

Valencia v Rangers

Valenica to keep a clean sheet @ 1.83 bet365

Not much to say about this other than Rangers will set up defensive and park the bus. They're missing Weiss and one or two other key players. They can't score with lone Miller up front etc Can't see them scoring against Valencia, even though they have been poor recently.

Ty good sir ! Bale is a sicko.

Two winning bets nice one.

Had some of o2.5 in the spurs game at evens when the price moved today.

Keep them coming.

Yeah pretty happy to win those two. Spurs didn't let us down with their attacking joyful football and Rangers stayed true to form. Blunt, boring and predictable with their tactics.

Probably have some more for tomorrow nights games as well if i see something nice.

Chelsea v Spartak Moscow

Asian Total Corners - Under 10.5 @ 1.975

Ok so maybe this isn't as obvious as some of the other bets have been. Chelsea's corner stats are not always low, but they are when they play weaker teams who they dominate.

They've had some really high corner games vs teams like Arsenal, Blackpool and Wolves. Arsenal and Blackpool are both very open and attacking and very good teams in general. Most people wouldn't lump Wolves into that category but they're underrated and misunderstood imo. They play well and the 8-8 on corners vs Chelsea shows they know how to attack.

Anyway, the games that Chelsea have low corners stats in are usually against teams they control the game vs. Teams like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke. Granted i doubt they will beat Spartak in the same fashion they did with Wigan and West Brom (6-0 and 0-6 respectively). But they will definitely control the game at home IMO.

So i think as a result of them controlling the play they will keep the corners to a minimum. The reason being that when they dominate a team they play a lot through the centre of the park. Top quality teams keep good quality of possesion and less balls go loose in the corners. This is also true of International teams and basically Chelsea are an International standard team no doubt. You'll notice their wingers will beat the defender more often and control the ball better in the tight spaces, whereas other teams might fail to cross the ball well and only get a corner and so on.

Also when Chelsea run teams over it is their natural tendency to play a linear style. No doubt they use the width to good effect with the likes of Cole, Bosingwa, Anelka, Malouda and Zhirkov all find themselves wide and attack well. But i think they steamroller through the middle of the pitch a lot when they beat teams up. Using Drogba as a target man and building their strategy around him.

Obviously Spartak are no mugs and there were 14 corners between the two sides in the last game. But i think that has a lot to do with the home advantage. Chelsea had to open up more away from home and were in more need of 3 points than they are now. I think with the home advantage Chelsea will control the game much more than they did in Moscow.

I also think the astro turf pitch in Moscow could've inflated the corner rate. That might sound laughable, but to anyone who has played on a plastic pitch they'll understand it has a lot more bounce and run than a grass surface. It's actually pretty hard keeping the ball in play a lot of the time. Also with the wet weather in England the ball should hold up more than it would on the astro. I genuinely think those are the sort of factors a lot of ppl would laugh at and overlook but have to be taken into account imo.