Urgh, I decide not to lay England because I second guess myself based on how negative people are.

Instead I bet on Spain to win to nil and the Under. Epic Fail.

Tip inside: kick off in 11 mins

just decided to get into sports betting, will be mostly betting on the footy (occasionally boxing) I read the FAQ at the top but most of the sportsbooks recomended there are really for american "sports". So i was wondering what sports book you guys mostly use? I have a betfair account.

Also what is the general type of bet you guys are making?

doubles, trebles? or is it asian handycap type bets?

(sorry for the stupuid questions any answers are greatly appreciated)

Betfair is obv great as you can lay certain bets, so this is one exchange I think you should definitely have, bet365 is good, you can get some good prices on certain matches, sometimes slower to move lines and they have a €200 bonus, juice is relatively high( you need to make about 1200 in bets though before you can withdraw that).
Ideally you want quite a few, pinnacle has the least juice (vig) but possibly the sharpest odds, 1*****, ****** have low juice too.
All the top Irish bookies and all the top U.K bookies are good too, here you can take advantage of free bets etc and also use them to line shop, ideally you want access to a number of reputable bookies to find the best price on whichever line you go with.

I used to used oddschecker to find the best value, but it's only really the major reputable U.K. and Irish bookies listed, oddsportal I find is much better, although it does list a number of less reputable books, if your unsure of a book, look it up on sbrforums as they rate most of the online sports books.

hi football people

any1 like fulham V tottenham PK -117 pinny?

i a on it anyway
BOL

bolton vs stoke appears to be excellent value

Gremio v Cruzeiro +118 (5d)

Chelsea v Spartak Moscow @ 2.10

Edit: Whoop good start as teh russian scores on the russians. gogogo Chelsea 1 - Moscow 0 after 24 mins.

Ok i know it's super early and this game is a week away but i like this bet a lot. Both free scoring teams with pretty weak defenses and very attacking styles.
Last season they managed 5 goals in each of their fixtures against each other. (10 in total)

Blackpool v West Brom

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72

What number wouldn't you take?

nice, i'll get some

on bremen-bayern o3 today

1 goal about 5 min in

Wolves +2 earlier was Evs, after the team news its now 4/7.

You can get 1.83 on that over btw.

Newcastle v Arsenal

Over 3 goals @ 1.90 with bet365

Arsenal -1 corner handicap @ 1.95 with bet365

Yeah so i think Arsenal will basically run Newcastle over tonight. Newcastle are playing a weakened side and Arsenal's reserves are much much stronger with the likes of Bendtner, Walcott, Rosicky, Denilson etc as well as Fabregas and other big names coming along for the ride.

Arsenal's style of play yields a lot of corners and i think they'll keep a lot of possession tonight and press Newcastle from the first minute.

They are however slightly weak defensively and i do see them conceding maybe one despite being capable of scoring 2-3+ themselves.

So yeah expecting plenty of action with Arsenal's reserves being too good for Newcastle's.

West Ham v Stoke

Stoke to qualify @ 2.10 with bet365

West ham have been really awful this season and absolutely shocking defensively. They have no real attacking threat and with Piquionne and Upson both out tonight, i think they'll really suffer in those areas.

Stoke on the other hand have strength in depth. A very good squad overall and are doing well. They granted West Ham their first point last month with a 1-1 draw but i think Stoke were unlucky that day and will be seeking some revenge for that.

Overall Stoke will have too much quality and physicality for the failing Hammers and should qualify tonight by whatever means IMO.

Where is that one?

Stan James

I tried to put 600 @ 2.87 (was a bit late to the party) on Sneider to win the ballon d'or but bet365 only accepted 160 bet, is this normal, I thought it was relatively easy make largish bets with bookies.

Is it square or logical to bet every over in the eredivisie? i mean, 3 goals is like the minimum usually.

i hit them all today

3-0 and free rolling on one at ht

No. But you knew that. This year we are averaging 3.24 goals per game but it is running hot. As you can see last year the figure was not as great as one would think. Also, as you know the bookmakers adjust since they use these stats + Goal expectancy within each fixture.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Goals this season last season
Over 2.5 Goals 64 (67%) 163 (53%)
Under 2.5 Goals 31 (33%) 143 (47%)

Nice calls TakeHerOnACruise but taking prem/carling cup at bet365 will not yield profits long term unless you are privy to team news well in advance! I am almost certain you could have gained much better value by placing on a line similar to the 3 line (top price on the over 2.5 line for instance) Just screw them with Asia changes and lower league european football when they first put the lines up. Love the analysis though and I would like to read more.

Analysis.

Thanks for the compliment. Could you expand a bit more on this point? If i'm honest maybe i don't understand the theory side of sports betting as well as some of the guys in here,i'm not a maths inclined person at all. I just feel like they get the prices wrong consistently on some of the less popular markets and there is value in just betting the given prices no?

Don't understand this bit sorry? And yeah i'll post some more if you like 'em

I haven't looked up the prices available on the Overs lines for the arsenal match but Bet365 will not have been top price. At best they may have been a top price amongst the European bookmakers priced up to a 100-102% market which will yield little value in the long term.

People have said it many times on here but..bet365 cannot be offering good prices on matches such as these as they would not be banning people who consistently beat them. As for the alternative lines, there is a spreadsheet available for converting odds on a 3 line to odds on every other line (2, 2.25, 2.5, 2.75----> even 4.5). One of these prices is often out of line BUT NOT on these types of games. Not only is the market spot on in most cases, but bet365's vig more than makes up for their inaccuracies. However, where they do mess up is reacting to line changes in Asia (as others have mentioned). Team news is released for a 2nd division croatian game or a German Oberliga match and their odds to not react to the move. Here, even in a 106% market their prices are often out of line.

However, for all the talk that Asia is 100% accurate on the Premiership, Carling cup etc there are of course anomalies. Using good handicapping and your obvious knowledge of these teams, it may be possible to gain an edge. Personally, I would focus on a lower profile league. Seriously - just become an expert on the Belgian EXQI league or the Druga Liga in Czech. When team news is released (even through normal sources available to everyone) you will be in the best place to take advantage of such news. You will know that a striker is not just providing goals but key assistance to the midfield and therefore his absence will affect their goal expectancy even greater. Watch the games - was a team unlucky and the odds for their next week's match skewed by their undeserved goals conceded the week before? Everyone is watching stoke, arsenal. It is almost arrogant to believe that your analysis of Arsenal's corner expectancy is better than people paying tens of thousands for analysts and data affecting the line.

That said, you will know when you are beating bet365. They will cut you.

i went 4-2 today. gd psv couldn't get a 3rd to at least make me 4-1-1

I sat out the over on the vvv game

Obviously one week means nothing but as said, it is running slightly above expectation. Also, if you're taking the Over 2.5s the prices will average 1.6 meaning lower profit than meets the eye from a 4-2 record (to others, not to you as you struck the bet). I am just quoting the stats and you are making profit so who cares...good stuff