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Old 09-17-2010, 10:49 AM   #1301
TakeHerOnACruise
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by theBruiser500 View Post
i have seen 3 AC milan games. i am going to make so much money betting against them this year
are you a pro footballer yet
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Old 09-17-2010, 01:55 PM   #1302
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by luegofuego View Post
Team Handicap @ decimal odds (bookie) # of units

so Stoke will start with half a goal down, which means the same as betting them on the moneyline. Everton will start three quarters of a goal down - which means effectively having half your bet at Everton -0.5 and the other half at -1.0.
sorry another question but i cant understand the difference between a -0.5 TH and a -0.75 TH. so both teams start the game -1/2 and -3/4 goals down respectively but if they both dont win the match by 1 goal you lose your bet right? what am i missing? just moved to ireland from paris would love to start placing more bets on the footy matches. Cheers for the help.
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Old 09-17-2010, 01:59 PM   #1303
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

-0.5 means your team must win by at least one goal (i.e win the match)

-0.75 means that if your team wins by just one goal you will win HALF THE BET and the other half will be refunded (as it drew -1.0). If your team wins by two or more goals you will win all the bet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap
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Old 09-17-2010, 02:00 PM   #1304
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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sorry another question but i cant understand the difference between a -0.5 TH and a -0.75 TH. so both teams start the game -1/2 and -3/4 goals down respectively but if they both dont win the match by 1 goal you lose your bet right? what am i missing? just moved to ireland from paris would love to start placing more bets on the footy matches. Cheers for the help.
Ok, -0.5 means the team has a -0.5 goal deficit from the beginning of the match.

-0.75 means the bet is split in two equal amounts, at -0.5 and -1 goals.

So, say Man Utd, have -0.75, then a final score of 1-0 to Man Utd means, you win half the bet, and other half is refunded. Winning by a margin of 2 or more, means you win both halves of the bet
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Old 09-17-2010, 02:17 PM   #1305
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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are you a pro footballer yet
no it is taking longer than expected
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Old 09-17-2010, 06:08 PM   #1306
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

So yeah took Stoke at 1.90 in the end.

Gudjohnsen and Jones up front with shakey Upson and Green at the other end looks to to set the game up in Stoke's favour. My only question now is whether to go for the over 2.5 goals.

Without Avram Grant and the afore mentioned shakey Englishmen i think there could be an onslaught but at the very least a comfortable Stoke win.
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Old 09-18-2010, 01:16 PM   #1307
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

**** you Aston Villa. This is the second time you have cost me in the final stages of a last man standing competition. Last time it was last 9 of a 10k one, this time it was the last 4 of a 20k one, I am a little worried that Houllier is going to come to my house and skull rape me since I have to pick Villa next week in another 10k one.

In related news, I run good at last man standing competitions except for Aston Villa.
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Old 09-18-2010, 07:01 PM   #1308
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

The rest of my weekend's Spanish La Liga AH & GL lines for tomorrow :-

Villarreal -0.5 @ 2.06 (Pinny) 3u
Racing Santander -0.25 @ 2.00 (Pinny) 3u

2 great spots
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Old 09-18-2010, 10:37 PM   #1309
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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(Pinny)
LOL

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(Pinny)
LOL
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Old 09-18-2010, 10:42 PM   #1310
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Again with your handicaps example jeez lol. The fact you instantly think of asian handicap markets when soccer betting is mentioned PC, is simply degen, at best ffs!
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-0.25
.
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Old 09-19-2010, 01:24 AM   #1311
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yes PC, I am indeed betting asian handicap and goal line markets, and yes I using Pinnacle as one of my books for these markets......... as I always have done! This does not mean they are my main markets when it comes to football betting, nor Pinny my main book, but you (should) know this and still decided to troll anyway like the pathetic nobody that you truly are.

Thanks for reconfirming why I pity you so much.
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Old 09-19-2010, 11:22 AM   #1312
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

15mins played. Chelsea even money o/u5.5gls on BF
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Old 09-19-2010, 03:21 PM   #1313
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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So, regardless of the commission, shoving it all on BF will still 9/10 give him the best price for whatever market he is betting on
Looking forward to seeing your next 18 bets.
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Old 09-19-2010, 05:19 PM   #1314
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
The rest of my weekend's Spanish La Liga AH & GL lines for tomorrow :-

Villarreal -0.5 @ 2.06 (Pinny) 3u
Racing Santander -0.25 @ 2.00 (Pinny) 3u

2 great spots
Cheers Gazo, followed you on a few and went 4/4.
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Old 09-19-2010, 07:15 PM   #1315
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Thanks Tablefox. Yes there's been a few bad lines so far this season, long may it continue. Good luck to you too

Still working on the Spanish La Liga fixtures and probably won't get enough time to post them before the weekend, but since I have a bit of spare time just now, here are my EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Serie A AH & GL lines for this coming weekend :-

English Premier
Stoke -0.5 @ 2.00 (******) 2u Lose
Everton -0.75 @ 1.83 (******) 3u Lose (left a real sour taste this one )
Tottenham -1 @ 1.80 (******) 1u WIN
Birmingham +0.25 @ 1.98 (******) 1u Lose

German Bundesliga
Cologne +1.75 @ 1.97 (******) 3u WIN
Cologne GL Under 3.25 @ 1.901 (Pinny) 2u WIN
Hannover +1 @ 1.97 (******) 3u Lose
Hannover GL Under 3.25 @ 2.00 (Pinny) 2u WIN
Mainz +1.25 @ 1.820 (Pinny) 1u WIN
Mainz GL Under 3.25 @ 2.00 (******) 2u WIN
Nurnberg +1.25 @ 1.99 (******) 2u WIN
St.Pauli +0.5 @ 1.87 (******) 1u WIN
St. Pauli GL Under 2.5 @ 2.06 (Pinny) 2u WIN
Schalke GL Under 2.5 @ 1.99 (Pinny) 1u Lose

French Ligue 1
Lorient -0.25 @ 1.85 (******) 1u Lose
Montpellier +0.5 @ 1.826 (Pinny) 1u Lose
Bordeaux GL Under 2.25 @ 1.86 (******) 1u Push/WIN

Italian Serie A
Fiorentina GL Under 2.25 @ 1.93 (******) 1u Lose
Catania +1.5 @ 1.909 (Pinny) 3u WIN
Bologna +1.25 @ 1.84 (******) 1u WIN
Parma -0.25 @ 2.09 (******) 1u Push/Lose
Udinese GL Under 2.5 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 1u Lose
Sampdoria -0.25 @ 1.943 (Pinny) 1u Lose
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
The rest of my weekend's Spanish La Liga AH & GL lines for tomorrow :-

Villarreal -0.5 @ 2.06 (Pinny) 3u WIN
Racing Santander -0.25 @ 2.00 (Pinny) 3u WIN

2 great spots
Total Stake: 43u
Total Profit: +8.979u
Yield: 20.88%


Still absolutely raping the easy early season Bundesliga lines which is great, and still (only just) hit my personal 20% yield marker, but there were a lot of disappointments. Ligue 1 still seems to elude me, and the Everton result in the premiership was just shockingly bad! . Very annoying when a 3u bet doesn't even come close. Can't take these things personally for future Everton games though.

Full German, Spanish, and Italian midweek schedules to now look over. Will try and get the bets up on here before Tuesday night.
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Old 09-20-2010, 07:04 PM   #1316
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

ran across this thread the other day and tailed most of the picks that were available on 5dimes for fun and made some money.
Cheers Gazo
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Old 09-20-2010, 07:06 PM   #1317
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
Yes PC, I am indeed betting asian handicap and goal line markets, and yes I using Pinnacle as one of my books for these markets......... as I always have done! This does not mean they are my main markets when it comes to football betting, nor Pinny my main book, but you (should) know this and still decided to troll anyway like the pathetic nobody that you truly are.

Thanks for reconfirming why I pity you so much.
pawned. don't f with gazo
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Old 09-20-2010, 07:33 PM   #1318
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Full German, Spanish, and Italian midweek schedules to now look over. Will try and get the bets up on here before Tuesday night.
Bundesliga
Mainz GL Under 2.5 @ 1.935 (Pinny) 1u
Hannover GL Under 3.0 @ 1.94 (******) 1u
Hoffenheim +0.5 @ 1.833 (Pinny) 1u
Hoffenheim GL Under 2.75 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 1u
Frankfurt +1 @ 1.813 (Pinny) 2u
Frankfurt GL Under 3.0 @ 1.88 (******) 2u
St. Pauli +0.5 @ 1.89 (******) 1u
Freiburg GL Under 2.5 @ 1.901 (Pinny) 2u
Nurnberg +0.25 @ 1.95 (******) 1u

Serie A
Bologna GL Under 2.5 @ 1.901 (Pinny) 1u
Brescia GL Under 2.5 @ 2.11 (******) 1u
Bari +1.25 @ 1.83 (******) 1u
Bari GL Under 2.75 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 1u
Lazio +0.25 @ 1.98 (Pinny) 3u
Lecce -0.25 @ 2.21 (******) 1u
Chievo +0.75 @ 2.03 (******) 1u
Palermo +0.75 @ 1.86 (******) 1u
Palermo GL Under 2.5 @ 2.08 (******) 2u

La Liga
Sporting Gijon +2 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 3u
Hercules +0.5 @ 1.93 (******) 3u
Hercules GL Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (Pinny) 1u
Almeria -0.5 @ 1.840 (Pinny) 3u
Almeria GL Over 2.5 @ 1.98 (Pinny) 2u
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Old 09-21-2010, 04:35 AM   #1319
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

gl, I agree with Hercules. Out of interest (I am not hating), how many of these teams have you seen play this season?
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Old 09-21-2010, 06:35 AM   #1320
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Sporting Gijon +2 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 3u
Gijon +2 & 2.5 is 1.79 on betfair. Just curious if your model says this is a roughly equivalent winning bet, I don't have a pinnacle account
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Old 09-21-2010, 09:29 AM   #1321
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Peterborough @ home to Swansea in the LC tonight. 19/10 seems like decent value, Swansea not great on the road and Peterborough tough to beat @ home.

Also looking at Mainz who are going strong early in the Bundesliga. They are @ home to FC Koln. 11/10 there which also seems decent value.

Going to stay clear of the NL derby tonight.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:22 PM   #1322
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Gijon are going to rest 8 players.
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Old 09-21-2010, 02:22 PM   #1323
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Peterborough @ home to Swansea in the LC tonight. 19/10 seems like decent value, Swansea not great on the road and Peterborough tough to beat @ home.
Yeah i saw this one as well. Swansea are apparently giving their fringe players a chance as well so i like it a lot.

What about over 1.5 goals in the first half of the NL Derby @ 2.50. That's what i've got on, thinking it should be good. No value in over 2.5 but they usually get off to a fast start. Feel pretty degen putting it on but hopefully it's as exciting as the last few have been.
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Old 09-22-2010, 10:39 AM   #1324
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Sporting Gijon +2 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 3u
No idea what the 'team news' is in this match as don't follow La Liga at all, but Gijon +2.5 is now up to 1.96 on betfair.
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Old 09-22-2010, 04:09 PM   #1325
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

A couple of random Greek bets. I'm sharing because they're longshots and therefore nobody can hate me if they fail (but I reckon there's some value in both). The system that found these bets is +10% over 114 bets at average odds 13.5 so it's far from a proven winner but I am happy with it so far (this has included a 45 bet losing streak that sucked donkey dick so I don't think it's just positive variance)

25/09/2010 Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis - Asteras Bwin @ 19

25/09/2010 Panathinaikos vs Panionios - Panionios Betclic @ 15

Also:

26/09/10 Sol de America vs Sportivo Luqueno- Sportivo Luqueno Bwin 3.85 (this may vanish fast as it's an arbable line but I have sworn off arbing after one too many lines escaping on me).

Last edited by That Foreign Guy; 09-22-2010 at 04:15 PM. Reason: LOL Paraguay
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