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Old 09-13-2010, 07:30 PM   #1276
Gazo
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Just..........wow!

Like i said, not going to go into this in detail, nor will I bother posting any future picks I guess.

I said I had only 1 goal line bet between the full Bundesliga and Ligue 1 schedules, all the other goal lines were just too close to find enough value to bet. I feel I'm too nitty nowadays when it comes to the goal lines, so it was a nice surprise to find the Bayern vs Bremen line worth 2u.

I have gone back over and checked everything to see how I arrived at that number and I don't see any mistake I've made. Admittedly it did, and still does look a bit too random. However, I'd hate to think I'd suddenly have to start changing things after almost the full 08/09 season testing and optimising this, and then the full 09/10 season making a lot of money out of it!

I'm not saying it's perfect by any means, but like I said a few days ago, it is what it is and I've placed hundreds upon hundreds of bets with it thus far. I only use it for the elite european leagues (EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1) AH and GL lines. Beating SPL and lower Scottish divisions (my niche ) and English league football lines takes a fraction of the effort that did, thank f**k! Champions League and Europa League are also going very well. Oh yeh, and then there was the World Cup I undoubtedly raped with the same approach as the elite euro leagues! Euro 2012 qualifiers are still on the "things to do list" sitting next to me.

I you don't mind, I'll just happily carry on with the same approach as normal for now.
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Old 09-13-2010, 08:00 PM   #1277
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

^^^nah don't be silly, carry on posting. It's just people thought you were exaggerating with your 1.21 goal line (surely you see it is impossible that the true expectancy is less than two goals since similar/identical matchups have not only been priced up and not take advantage of for years but you have not actually statistically shown how it can be 1.21). By the way, I wouldn't do this, it would get ripped apart. You're winning monies who cares.

Last edited by Astyanax; 09-13-2010 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 09-13-2010, 10:40 PM   #1278
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Whats everyones thoughts on tomorows champions league?
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Old 09-14-2010, 05:40 AM   #1279
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Bursaspor v Valencia - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE, 14/09, 19.45 GMT

Finally the new Champions League season gets under way and there are a couple of interesting fixtures I'd like to watch. Especially Bremen v Tottenham promises to be a cracking game. Betting-wise I will concentrate on another debutant, though.

After winning the Turkish league Bursaspor made a flying start to the new season winning 4 out of 4. Their home record is really impressive and the atmosphere tonight in Turkey is something to look forward too. This will be a real test for all teams coming to the Bursa Atatürk Stadium as they probably haven't seen anything like this before. Valencia have started their campaign equally well with 2 wins in 2 games. But they haven't played any tough opponents yet so it's hard to tell how they will cope after the departure of their two most important players (Villa and Silva) .

> Bursaspor 0 @ 2.19/+119 (******)
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Old 09-14-2010, 06:05 AM   #1280
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

btw: Malaysian Cup - Kuala Lumpur v Sabah

Under 3.0: 1.40 SBO; 1.925 Bet365
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Old 09-14-2010, 12:13 PM   #1281
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Date placed:
Sep 14, 2010 12:01p Single #185300191 (Placed by Web)
UEFA Champions League (Game) Total
UEFA Club Competitions - UEFA Champions League
90 Minutes plus injury time.
FC Twente vs. Internazionale Under 2½ (-165)

even at -165 i think its +ev.
find out soon. its on fox soccer channel.
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Old 09-14-2010, 12:43 PM   #1282
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Well gazo you're either full of **** or delusional. As you're scottish I think we can assume it's the latter.
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Old 09-14-2010, 01:59 PM   #1283
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by OreosAndMilk View Post
Well gazo you're either full of **** or delusional. As you're scottish I think we can assume it's the latter.
...........and by doing so you have confirmed you're nothing more than a moronic bigot?

Please explain what's delusional here. I'm in desperate need of a real good laugh today so fire away.

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Old 09-14-2010, 02:01 PM   #1284
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
...........and by doing so you have confirmed you're nothing more than a moronic bigot?

Please explain what's delusional here. I'm in desperate need of a real good laugh today so fire away.

Because you believe your theory to be correct about the expected goal total because the rest of your bets are winning. Read the theory we posted above and maybe you might agree, I'm pretty sure it's correct. Good luck though obv..I just find the topic of totals interesting, carry on.
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Old 09-14-2010, 02:17 PM   #1285
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

No I am sorry you must be right. 1***** and pinnacle are wrong and you calculate totals better than everyone.
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Old 09-14-2010, 03:18 PM   #1286
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

3 goals in 30 minutes including an own goal.
thats why they call it gambling.
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Old 09-14-2010, 03:49 PM   #1287
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

got a 4 folds on tonight

Bursapor vs Valencia
FC twente vs inter milan
Doncaster vs Norwich
middelsborogh vs Burnley

£5 to win 84.66
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Old 09-14-2010, 04:49 PM   #1288
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Just had a thought, we could have a prop bet. I will use pinnacles goal lines 30 mins before a match and you can use your own goal lines. Surely you will accept as your lines are so much better.
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Old 09-14-2010, 05:10 PM   #1289
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by inthepub5 View Post
got a 4 folds on tonight

Bursapor vs Valencia
FC twente vs inter milan
Doncaster vs Norwich
middelsborogh vs Burnley

£5 to win 84.66
Everything is awesome in this post - your pic, your location, the result and your spelling of Middlesbrough! Nice one!
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Old 09-14-2010, 05:47 PM   #1290
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Absolutely raping the closing line and then losing 0-4 is not what I had in mind!
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Old 09-15-2010, 05:57 AM   #1291
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Gazo,

Thing is, if you actually SAW the bayern - bremen game and still thought "man, i've set a perfect goal line here at 1.21", then I gotta question your sanity. Or maybe you correctly predicted that fifty shots on target would ALL miss, somehow. If I had bet the unders on that game, I'd thank my lucky star that I somehow managed to squeeze out a win. Thing is, you never come in here saying "I set the goal line at 1.1" after Werder Bremen - Tottenham, or Twente - Inter, or Newcastle - Aston Villa (congrats on the O5.5!), only after the flukey 0-0 games. I'm not trying to be hostile and I'm sure you're a good tipster but you have to understand how this is damaging your credibility.
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Old 09-15-2010, 03:11 PM   #1292
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Sharps getting crushed on UEFA.
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:00 PM   #1293
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
I had the goal line estimated at 1.21, but decided to be a nit and not f**k about, so just lmao and took a very big chunk of the UNDER 3.0/3.5 line available on Pinny for some straight raping.

Also had an even bigger chunk on Bremen +0.75 on the h'caps as this easily qualified for a "very high" edge in this spot (imo of course). Was a bit annoyed with myself to miss the line drift out to Bremen +1 for the same price, but meh.................still easy monies!!
Great to see your still at it since the World Cup, haven't been posting much lately but I did notice before the Bayern/Bremen game that Bremen +1 was 2.15 lol, don't remember a line that far off since the WC

Been making more fewer bigger more knowledgeable bets recently and it's been paying off nicely, gl
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:22 PM   #1294
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Did a wee bet earlier

City (currently ahead)
A Madrid (drawing)
D Kiev (behind )
Leverkusen -1 (1 goal up)

Heart ruled head so took Samp to beat PSV in a double with Dortmund
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:09 PM   #1295
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Stoke v West ham

Stoke to win @ 2.00 EDIT: they're down to 1.90 now :/

I'm not sure if this is just a mug bet and i know a lot of you guys wouldn't take the standard prices and stuff.

But this just looks too good for me. Stoke are pretty solid at home, they outclass/bully/outstrength the smaller sides in a lot of areas and they attack well with some good striking talent. West ham are looking desperate already and are just poor defensively and look like they have no striking edge.

They haven't made a good start, granted they have had to play Chelsea and Man U already. As well as Aston Villa. But they didn't put up any resistance in those games and barely scraped past Oxford in the league cup early in the season.

I guess you could argue that Stoke have had a poor/slow start too, but they've had to play Chelsea and Spurs. They managed to beat Villa on the opening game and were unlucky away to Wolves who are a good side imo and much underrated. I think the bookies are giving too much weight to their slow start possibly here.

Anyone got an opinion on this or anything to add? I think at evens Stoke look great here but maybe this is just the mug punter in me speaking?

Last edited by TakeHerOnACruise; 09-16-2010 at 05:25 PM.
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Old 09-16-2010, 06:51 PM   #1296
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

In case you didn't know Avram Grant will miss the match due to Yom Kippur (holiest day of the Jewish year). I'm on the fence as to how this will affect West Ham (Ben Haim also misses the game). On the one hand, West Ham are screwed and therefore any management change (this a pretty big deal him missing the match) will actually help them as the players bond together..however in this case, Avram Grant is very well respected at West Ham. Many players speak highly of him and they may suffer a little.

Stoke have a full squad with Gudjohnsen likely to start and I agree should score with their striking talent. As I have said numerous times (as have others), the market is very often correct on Prem fixtures even this far in advance. This means there is no need for statistical analysis and price comparatives of previous fixtures. However, if pushed I agree that Stoke could be worth a dabble (ladbrokes are evens).
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Old 09-16-2010, 07:30 PM   #1297
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TableFox View Post
Great to see your still at it since the World Cup, haven't been posting much lately but I did notice before the Bayern/Bremen game that Bremen +1 was 2.15 lol, don't remember a line that far off since the WC

Been making more fewer bigger more knowledgeable bets recently and it's been paying off nicely, gl
Thanks Tablefox. Yes there's been a few bad lines so far this season, long may it continue. Good luck to you too

Still working on the Spanish La Liga fixtures and probably won't get enough time to post them before the weekend, but since I have a bit of spare time just now, here are my EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Serie A AH & GL lines for this coming weekend :-

English Premier
Stoke -0.5 @ 2.00 (******) 2u
Everton -0.75 @ 1.83 (******) 3u
Tottenham -1 @ 1.80 (******) 1u
Birmingham +0.25 @ 1.98 (******) 1u

German Bundesliga
Cologne +1.75 @ 1.97 (******) 3u
Cologne GL Under 3.25 @ 1.901 (Pinny) 2u
Hannover +1 @ 1.97 (******) 3u
Hannover GL Under 3.25 @ 2.00 (Pinny) 2u
Mainz +1.25 @ 1.820 (Pinny) 1u
Mainz GL Under 3.25 @ 2.00 (******) 2u
Nurnberg +1.25 @ 1.99 (******) 2u
St.Pauli +0.5 @ 1.87 (******) 1u
St. Pauli GL Under 2.5 @ 2.06 (Pinny) 2u
Schalke GL Under 2.5 @ 1.99 (Pinny) 1u

French Ligue 1
Lorient -0.25 @ 1.85 (******) 1u
Montpellier +0.5 @ 1.826 (Pinny) 1u
Bordeaux GL Under 2.25 @ 1.86 (******) 1u

Italian Serie A
Fiorentina GL Under 2.25 @ 1.93 (******) 1u
Catania +1.5 @ 1.909 (Pinny) 3u
Bologna +1.25 @ 1.84 (******) 1u
Parma -0.25 @ 2.09 (******) 1u
Udinese GL Under 2.5 @ 1.885 (Pinny) 1u
Sampdoria -0.25 @ 1.943 (Pinny) 1u
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Old 09-16-2010, 08:52 PM   #1298
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

i have seen 3 AC milan games. i am going to make so much money betting against them this year
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Old 09-16-2010, 09:21 PM   #1299
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Sorry for noob Q, but can someone translate into English what these kind of odds and numbers mean? Big football fan, sports betting idiot.

Stoke -0.5 @ 2.00 (******) 2u
Everton -0.75 @ 1.83 (******) 3u
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Old 09-17-2010, 05:00 AM   #1300
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Team Handicap @ decimal odds (bookie) # of units

so Stoke will start with half a goal down, which means the same as betting them on the moneyline. Everton will start three quarters of a goal down - which means effectively having half your bet at Everton -0.5 and the other half at -1.0.
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