Quote:
Originally Posted by bw89
Out of interest what did you think the supremacy should've been in the Spain game?
Was talking to people at the time and we all thought it was basically the most 'difficult game to call' of the entire World Cup taking into account Spain's potential quality + their up till then poor performances and Germany's great start + possible overachievements against poor sides.
In the end I think we settled on about 0.
Seriously, this is a bit of whacky answer but I believe it to be true. Usually when capping, you'd need a solid grasp of odds and good analysis of the factors that go into pricing up the matches as well as knowledge about the teams. However, when it comes to a match with this much information and so much analysis I'd personally take the advice of someone who just knows sht loads about football - sometimes this is just a nutty fan who speaks rationally if that makes sense. The price was about correct for the Germany match (although it was clearly too big with respect to spain when the line first came out as it was subsequently backed in). It was that close but if they had a truly informed opinion due to experience of watching x amount of matches with a good track record their opinion would be worth more than an odds compilation from scratch using stats + subjectivity.
A detailed comparison of the respected lineups and battles between each of the players would have yielded some interesting results. Here we had half the barcelona + real team playing against Bayern Munich who had reached the champs league final. From there we could then compare the spanish and german leagues etc etc. However, when it really came down to it, the spaniards are just a clutch team with players who were not necessarily improving as the tournament went on but just 'getting the job done'. Using previous matches for spain including their poor performances against Switzerland was misleading. I mean, they had villa, casillas, iniesta and xavi who regularly turn it on etc. Stats such as not scoring, or lack of assists are more random when taken in the context of four/five games. In fact Villa was creating a huge number of chances but failing to convert as many as he could have. As a general rule, the more shots the player has or is having in previous matches, the more likely he is to score WHEN he is at an elite level. In amongst all that we had players for germany who were being overrated (ozil) and underrated (in part) Mueller (who was suspended affecting the price - or not affecting it as much initially).
I'm not sure what I'm trying to say other than the price was correct at kick-off. Spain slight favourites.
As for the betfair question..A friend and I ran the closing betfair prices for the prem and they are 99%+ accurate..i.e a £1 of every selection would lose to comission over time, they are that good. Although my friend reliably informs me he has a system for prem betting - 'lay the underdog at home if they score'..it is working a treat