Italy -4 @ 9/5. I know Italy are having it pretty rough atm but they should steamroll the Faroes

i have a win/draw bet for romania also

any idea why the france-bosnia line is moving so much?

Ship! Got them @ 11/5 in my local bookies! Along with Germany -4 and Turkey, 2/1 and 8/13

wheeeeee 4 goal bonanza

^^wp but -0.75 was better (results orientated ftw ) It is so great as a city fan to see johnson scoring! Good shooting Kevin..

Gillingham v Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury draw no bet @ 2.00 bet365

Views on this one?

^^it is 1.80 as far as I can see..there is much better than that on bet365..check out their u21 swedish leagues as they hardly ever change their prices. Same for czech cup and german amateur. Not to get into too much theory but betting off bet365's original lines on fairly efficient markets is a pretty bad idea mostly becuase they are usually not top price (when u use an equivalent to their level ball AHC line, say a -0.25 at a better comparative price).

edit: Although if they were 2.00 that is pretty tasty. I know more about the Jupiler League than League 2 though!

Na it's def 2.00 on the "draw no bet".

I was going to say i don't know much about the German Amatuer/Swedish U21/Czech cup. But i'd be lying because i know absolutely nothing about those competitions

Really tempted by the 2.00 on Shrewsbury here...hmmm

Well here is one for bet365. They should be 1.82 on the level ball but they are 3.75, enjoy.

[IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/IMG]

They are indeed 2.00 @ Bet365. But you can get 2.06 (SBO) and even 2.10 (BetPhoenix)

How do you calculate that by the way? I have created a spreadsheet that tells me all the small handicaps based on the 1X2 odds. But what if there is no 1X2 available?

it should never be derived from the 1X2 in the first place. it is based on the Asian Handicap and Asian Totals and I have a sheet.

If team are 2.00 on -1, they are one goal favourites. If the totals are 2.00 on a 3.0 line then there is total goals of 3. Therefore Team A has expected goal total of 2 and team B has expected total of 1 and you can work out all other handicaps and totals lines from there.

I use the 1X2 odds for creating ad hoc AHs in the European market that are otherwise not on offer. Often you get better odds than in Asia that way.

Looks like this (this is the Shrewsbury game btw):

You cannot estimate the likely handicap of a team without doing the total goals. The 1X2 does not take into account total goals (1.01 shots that only win 2:0 instead of 13:0) and therefore have -1.5 ahc. Below is a rough thing some people use. The spreadsheets I have are exact based on a million simulations - I did not do the maths.



Also, to pick up on a point. You will very very rarely get a better price on an Asian handicap alternative line on European bookmakers UNLESS there has been a move in Asia - as their orignal set lines are at least relatively in order. It is possible that your calcs leading you to think so are wrong. As stated numerous times, bookmakers betting to 108% will very rarely yield value unless there has been a big move compensated for the said margin. Also which 1X2 are you using and it says 97 pay out..is that actually 103% and does it include comission. I have never done it this way from 1X2 as I was always told it is wrong. The 1X2 is always derived from the supremacy and therefore you cannot create alternatives based on 1X2.

Someone else can explain it better than me as the premise is the same in money line/handicap line/totals line.

Finally, TakeHerOnACruise where are you..it is still up there..

You're somewhat missing the point. The whole point of that spreadsheet of mine IS to take advantage of a move in Asia.

Example: you want to bet a team giving up the 0.25 ball. That has dropped to 2.00 in Asia. The Europeans haven't adjusted yet, as usual, but are only offering the 1X2 market. Let's say you get 2.80 for the win at Interwetten and 3.30 for the Draw at Bet365 which are the best offers available. With my spreadsheat I can now create my own AH. If I want to stake €100 I'd have to put €84.85 on the win at Interwetten and €15.15 on the draw at Bet365. That equals to a AH -0.25 bet @ 2.376. Obviously this only works for -0.5, -0.25, 0, 0.25 and 0.5.


Edit: Thx for the link

Ok cool, I have a similar spreadsheet then if a little more totals dependent. bet365 have changed now after an hour.

thanks for this

Ty, I'l take what I can get at this point. Bout time I beat Mr French!

bah been away for a while playing live

any thoughts on the Shrewsbury draw no bet @ 2.00 btw? i think Gillingham are pretty strong at home actually, only lost 2 at home last season is that right?

spoke to some nice chaps in the know lately who told me the Swedish U21 league is majorly rigged/fixed. is that why you bet on it Astyanax?

so here it goes.
it's more of a psichology question but also a tip.
tomorow(9/11/2010) in the romanian first league urziceni-steaua.
steaua only has 1.4.but were is the tip?
unirea is almost bankrupt,they only have 12 players for the match tomorow,3 of wich are goalkeepers.steaua just bought half of the unirea team.unirea s owner just keeps the team alive to get the tv rights until the end of the championship.
so..i am thinking of beting 1000,but the problem is thats basicly all my savings right now.should i do this?
psnline websites might give more then 1.4.

Answer: NO

Reasoning: Goalkeepers can play outfield too

Answer: NO

Reason: It's not Kelly optimal.

Even if they're 90% to win (which I think is optimistic, even against a struggling club) you should only bet 65% of bankroll at odds of 1.4. It's probably still an interesting play but I'd make it more like 125 or 250 at most (maybe play the -1 or -1.5 Asian Handicap line if you still want to make a noticeable score and you think they will get crushed)

so i checked out the Unirea Urziceni v Steaua Bucharest game on bet365. if you think it's going to be such a landslide why don't you go for over 2.5 goals @ 2.15???

that seems like good value in such a supposedly one sided encounter, even if they are away from home. obv i don't know anything about this game or either team just throwing that out there based on your thinking Unirea will get crushed.

seriously though sounds bad if they have goalkeepers playing outfield and stuff, like that must be heartbreaking for the fans (if they have any)

gl if you decide to bet though pokerfish

Short Question on Bayern - Werder today:

Both Teams seem to have Problems in their defence lines at this point of the season, both have outstanding offensive lines.

The last games between these teams in spring ended 4-0 and 3-2, Werder had not a single game this season with less than 4 goals total.

On the other hand, esp. some Bayern players seem to be quite tired, also robben is obv missing

So bet over 2.5 at 1.44 (b365) big a and over 3.5 at 2.2 (bf) smallish?