Hey guys, just wanted to mention my own blog where I'll be posting my bets. Maybe you like it: http://plusevbetting.blogspot.com/

thoughts on the europa league games tonight villa to win @1.5 looks good to me

Where are you getting those odds?
Can't find more than 1.47 anywhere and thats at 5Dimes where I'm not a member! Ive taken them at 1.45 at 1*****.

Villa look set to win this if the team selected is the strongest available. However, after the poor selections in the past 2 out of 3 games who knows!
Cuellar and Agbonlahor should both return which makes it a stronger pick. Will be going to the game myself hoping for the win but am staying away on the betting!

Am personally on over 2.5 goals in the Man City game and in the Carling Cup have Birmingham -1.5 against Rochdale.

Nice stuff, keep it up!

for anyone interested, the champions league draw is live here
http://www.skysports.com/live-chat

odds on betfair. villa to win @1.56 now
got villa -1.5@2.25
fading man city game and birmingham game

Just got back from the game. I dont understand how we lost that. We were awful. They had 3 chances and scored them all! We had loads, missed a penalty and just played terribly in general. Once agbonlahor got injured we had no goal threat and just didnt look like winning.

As for birmingham and man city; from what ive heard briefly city took their foot off the gas and didnt finish the over off and birmingham had a shocker (motivation due to a low crowd and poor team selection).

Villa need a new manager asap. KM is clearly a poor choice.

two cheeky tips:

For those of you not banned with Expekt..

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football.../match-result/

home team are 1.90 and worth a dabble. Shamrock -1.25 against Longford is still Ok even though it has been gambled.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLjwRuOoakI

^^^this is seven minutes long but I liked it. Gl for the weekend.

$100 Champs league competition here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56.../#post21179079

Come gamble!

I think I have found some a good combination of bets, although the numbers are pretty small so I can't be sure.

Basically put doubles on each of the big 4 sides (Chelsea ManU ManC Arse) to win the Premier League and FA Cup. This will pay out @ 6.5 (about what any one of those teams is at to win the FA Cup alone). The reasons I like this bet are:

There have 6 doubles in the last 21 years. LOL Sample size but winning 6/21 at 6.5 is jackpot city IMO.

You are effectively betting on whichever of these teams does best throughout the year to win the FA Cup at the odds available now. That seems like value to me as I believe doing well through the year (winning the league) is positively correlated with winning the FA Cup - if you knew now that Chelsea would win the league but couldn't bet on any league matches or related markets, the FA Cup is surely where you'd try to get some action down, right?

Someone correct me if I am wrong please before I get any more action down on this.

Tell me about it! Our season is in freefall until we get a new manager in!

I'm not sure I agree that the chances are anything more than titlewin% x cupwin% and that a team performing well in the league will play well in the FA cup is already factored in to the price.
Also Bookies tend to rape you on the doubles(ie. they trim the price down) plus you won't have use of the stake money for the entire season(think how many times you can roll that money over). Make's this at best a tiny (<0.5%) wager and at worst a -ev bet imo.

Anyone else think Fulham are worth a lay today?

2.46 away from home. Not won in 19 away Premier League games. Blackpool unbeaten in their last 9 home games, first game at their home stadium in the Premier League, they're not going to bend over for a team who hasn't won for 19 away games.

Also really impressed with Blackpool in the play offs.

Think i'll go with Blackpool draw no bet on Paddy Power at 5/4

German Bundesliga: St Pauli - Hoffenheim, OVER @ 1.65 (bet365)

Game starts in thirty minutes. Pauli's first Bundesliga match at home since tree fiddy years, I expect them to be very euphoric and offensive. Hoffenheim is always good for a few goals. Plus: Pauli scored three times in their away game last week. Clear OVER for me.

ouch...

The locking money up is less of a concern for me than more active bettors. I'm rarely close to being fully committed and actually run in to bookie limits sometimes. This does not mean I am super balla - I just play somewhat obscure markets like 1st half Macedonian football.

I looked at some other leagues data too and the double seems to happen more often than it would by chance (although I admit I don't really know how many teams in Italy really had a chance of winning in 1995 etc).

I agree it's not a "raid the pension" fund kind of investment, but I've chucked 1% down.

I very rarely play multiples unless I can find correlated ones (like I think thos one is) or am making a chumpy bet to make Soccer Saturday interesting so I don't pay attention to the odds - going to have to fill some out this week and see if your accusation is true.

Sorry to change the subject and all that but does anyone know if you can bet on which side will get the first corner in regular league games?

Bwin has it, but pre-game ony for the big matches I guess. Otherwise they usually have it as a live bet. I think bet365 offers it as well.

Loce,good tip that St.Pauli-Hoffenheim game. 0-1 and only goal scored in 87th minute...

Wish I saw this earlier. I had the goal line estimated at ~0.75 (if I remember correctly) going into this game.

The UNDER 2.5,3.0 (2.75) GL available on ****** at 2.01 was full of value, and a pretty simple win imo!

u guys don't hate rubbing it in lol

Never bet on Villa. The gods conspire against us

Hiya guys, I havnt used this thread in a while but hopefuly I can return in a blaze of glory. Here are my picks for the upcoming internationals, please tell me what u think, all prices are in fractions from betfred as I work there and am at work:

Germany away to belgium 4-7
Croatia away to latvia 4-6
Montenegro at home to wales 5-6
Mexico at home to ecuador 4-7
Poland at home to ukraine 11-8
Lithuania at home to scotland 6-4
Norway away to iceland 5-6

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A present for all those allowed to bet at bet365!