Three bets for me tonight and I'm certain I will make some sort of profit.

Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.3 Vs Blackpool
Cardiff @ 1.6 vs Peterborough
Lay Bournemouth @ 3.35 Vs Notts County

You're not rubbing it in. If you read on you will see I layed off for no-loss in the 2nd half.
I could've written a paragraph or so about why I liked that bet rather than giving a summary-type reason. Some of my previous posts have more detailed reasoning behind the picks. I do the same analysis for every game and don't always explain it in my posts as I can't be bothered.

I presume that the 'markets are perfect' argument is based on the closing lines at K.O.. You will note that I placed this bet around 2 hours before K.O. at which point Birm were available to back at 1.96. The price subsequently drifted out to 2(and IIRC slightly over 2 and closing around 1.99) which would make my bet +EV in this case based on your criteria.

I'm happy to discuss this, this thread has been somewhat stale of late with people(myself inc.) just posting picks and no discussion around how to improve as bettors.

sidenote: I don't actually buy this whole 'market is %100 perfect' thing. Firstly because the market is made up of all the bets from all the people. Since most people are idiots how can a collective of these idiots(and occasionally smart people) create a perfect market. Secondly the Premier League is one of my most profitable markets(if not the most profitable) and if it's perfect I should be a net loser after commis.(though I could just be running good and have variance catch up with me eventually).
So unless BF come out and state that no-one has ever beaten the PL over a significant sample(and even then it might just be a case of 'yet') then I can't accept that it is perfect.

Crystal Palace vs Swansea @2.70

EDIT: that should be 'available to Lay at 1.96'

Newcastle look good value tonight @ 2.22

MC V Bolton >2.5gls 3u @ 1.8
MC HT 1u @ 1.93
Fulham V Burnley 4u @ 1.85

Betfair don't form the market, Asia do. They have their 1X2 and AHC lines up before Betfair even have the fixture day up with any matches. I don't doubt that you are in profit but to suggest that Birmingham play matches weighted towards Unders two hours before the match; when everyone has had the information not only when pricing it up but also days before the match to move the market is a little forced..Anyway,good stuff, I'll follow the thread - Bremen are winning although I probably just jinxed it

I also understand that even though Asia form the market, bettors move the prices and if bettors are moving the prices there could be value as they are muppets..But the lines created are close to perfect but beatable but closing prices with infomation, ratings, weather, injuries are proven perfect with the vig..They offer the biggest limits and make profit from these leagues; not so against the syndicates in other leagues.

Could you elaborate on this? Which Asian bookmaker are you referring to?

Also I wasn't suggesting that I moved the market with my bet. I was stating that if you were to judge my bet by the closing lines then it was a +ev bet as the line moved in my favour at some point between me placing the bet and K.O.

http://www.en.1*****.com/Sport/footb...emier%20League

1***** are already betting on 21st feb games..betfair bet to 140% on games a week in advance as the markets are immature..

yes that bet was +ev as the price moved in...but was it profitable when you placed it two hours before the match? I would argue no on this fixture..gl profit is profit whatever, I'm just being pedantic..

You guys should probably lay everything I say to back.

Profit roughly +2u

Astyanax i think you need to sit down, thorntoc is the master.

thorntoc could you please provide an opinion on Milan/ManUtd at San Siro?

Burned You're probably right though.

It's a bit early that games a week away

any picks for tonight?

Aston Villa vs Man Utd 1u @ 1.95 straight win.

Villa may have won at OT but it has to be remembered that they basically got dominated that game. Counter attacking football which they enjoy playing works more effectively away from home. Villa have only won 1 of their last 6 games and been entirely unconvincing in many of the draws. United meanwhile are on fire at the moment. Apart from the game this season United also have a very strong record vs Villa and at Villa park over the years. They have got a lot of clean sheets recently but United are a different prospect altogether than the sides they have shut out. Not much value in all probability but had to go for it anyway.

Arsenal vs Liverpool. 1u @ 2.2 over 2.5 goals.

Arsenal Liverpool ties are frequently high scoring. Also nearly every game at the Emrates this season has gone over 2.5. Both defenses are shaky. Despite Liverpool lacking the firepower up front they are on a decent run of form so could cause Arsenal problems. Given its at the Emirates and Arsenal have to bounce back I can see them finally getting some goals as well as Liverpool are a very different prospect than United and Chelsea which most of the Arsenal talk over the last few weeks has been about. See this as high scoring but don't see the value in straight win. If I had to guess a scoreline I can see it being 3-2 Arsenal or something.

Wolves vs Tottenham 1u @ 1.88 straight win

Wolves home form has been poor recently. They have really struggled to score goals. Tottenham have been threatening a big result for a while now with some quality attacking play. Modric being back with a run in the side is a major boost. Tottenham are one of the strongest away sides in the league, Wolves one of the weakest home sides.

Blackburn vs Hull 1u @ 1.92 straight win

Hull have picked up some good results vs Chelsea and Man City but they were both at the KC. Away from home they are a different prospect altogether, failing to win in any of 12 away games. Blackburn meanwhile have won their last 2 at home vs Fulham and Wigan and only lost twice at home all season.

Not anything too exciting. All a bit predictable and not much value either way in any of these but they are my bets so there you go.

10/02:

Arsenal vs Liverpool DRAW @3.20
Everton vs Chelsea DRAW @3.50
Aston Villa vs Manchester United @1.83

My picks for tonight:
Arsenal V Liverpool 2u @ 2.02
>2.5gls Arsenal V Liverpool 1u @ 2.2
AV+0.5 V MU 1u @ 2.12
Blackburn V Hull 3u @ 1.95
Blackburn HT V Hull 1u @ 2.6
<2.5gls Blackburn V Hull 1u @ 1.88
Blackburn Clean Sheet: YES 1u @ 2.6
>2.5gls Everton V Chelsea 1u @ 2.12
Everton HT V Chelsea 0.4u @ 5.9
>2.5gls W.Ham V Birm 1u @ 2.44
Tott V Wolves 4u @ 1.8
Tott HT V Wolves 1u @ 2.58

Have to say I'm shocked to see the odds on Arsenal (managed to grab 2.10) considering they were 1.50 against a similar side this year. A bigger then usual bet for me on the Gooners ...

Is Betfair down for anyone else?

not for me.
though it's been down a few times recently but not at peak times

despite the atrocious result in my 4u play(Tott) I still managed to pull in a nice profit of over 3u going 7 for 12.
Most of the profits coming from a clean sweep in the Blac/Hull game.....i'm starting to become a fan of the 'Keep a Clean Sheet' bet.

Turns out my stream of the Tottenham game was affecting my connection to Betfair ...

Loss roughly -2u

Referee horrible decision with the Nani sending off probably cost me.

Can't complain about the Spurs or Arsenal games. I definitely got it wrong there. Shocked at how dreadful Spurs were and how dreadful both teams were at the Emirates. Spurs lose home and away to Wolves. Really dire stuff.