In the league I meant. I think that including away wins vs lower league opposition distorts the true picture.

Man-City last 9 away league games:

Everton 2-0 Man City
Wolves 0-3 Man City
Tottenham 3-0 Man City
Bolton 3-3 Man City
Liverpool 2-2 Man City
Birmingham 0-0 Man City
Wigan 1-1 Man City
A Villa 1-1 Man City
Man Utd 4-3 Man City

Hull last 9 home league games:

Hull 1 -1 Chelsea
Hull 1 -1 Wolves
Hull 1 -3 Man Utd
Hull 1 -1 Blackburn
Hull 3 -2 Everton
Hull 3 -3 West Ham
Hull 2 -1 Stoke
Hull 0 -0 Portsmouth
Hull 2 -1 Wigan

Theres only one lower league, the 3 defeats have been against good sides. Only one other away defeat all season. The lack of wins before this included that long run of draws which was a bit of freak occurance and probably skews things more.

I think they may have too much for Hull today and are good value. gl tho if you go for it.

I disagree.........imo City is value @1.75ish or more. Hull at home are scoring almost a half gpg less and conceding a half gpg more than the league average = struggle to score and can't defend. MC away, on the other hand score around 0.35 gpg more than avg and concede 0.25 less than avg. MC's number's also appear skewed negatively because they spent a significant period of time without Adebayor,Toure and Lescott(bench today i think) and they conceded 4 goals v MU

MC V Hull 2u @ 1.79
>2.5gls MC V Hull 2u @ 1.94
Fulham+0.5 V Bolton 1u @ 1.77

I'm fading Blackburn today. Can't see them getting anything at all.
Stoke 2u @ 2.38
Lay B'Burn @ 3.55 Risking approx 4u to win 1.6u
<2.5gls 2u @ 1.67

Bets today so far

Stoke v Blackburn +0.25 @ 1.96
Sunderland v Wigan @ 2.1
Bolton v Fulham @ 3.8
Burnley v West Ham @ 3.0
Hull v Man City 1.79
Dag and Red v Northampton +0.25 @ 2.1
Eastbourne v Wrexham @ 2.08
Bradford v Bury +0 @1.98
Clyde v Stenhousemuir +0 @ 1.98
Forfar Athletic v Livingston +0.5 @ 1.8
Brechin City v Alloa Athletic +0.25 @ 1.8

finished 7 out of 10 and +6u for a good day's betting (so far)

Bad day for me, not to worry

Backed Spurs v Villa @ 2.08

Spurs 1u @ 2.12

I really don't think Birm should be odds on favs today. They are a low-scoring team with a strong def: meaning a draw makes up a larger number of possible scoreline combos than the avg team.
Imo Wolves should get something from the game >%50 of the time

My pick:
Wolves+0.5gls 1u @ 2.04

Chel V Ars 4u @ 1.86
>2.5gls Chel V Ars 6u @ 2.02

Hedged Birm/Wolv for no loss if Birm win

and 2mins later Birm score........timing!

Lyon V Toulouse 2u @ 2.7
Roma V Fior. 1u @ 3.2

Two early goals in the Chelsea game then nothing for the rest of the match had me losing my biggest bet of the day.
overall -2.5u today

Nice work with the picks thorntoc - I should check this thread more often lol.

08/02 games:

Double @2.59:
Belenenses vs Braga
1860 Munchen vs Ahlen

As an avid football bettor and poster I have no idea why I haven't posted here before. Will start writing about my picks semi regularly. First up is midweek Premiership games.

ty....good 2 c u posting again

anyone think betting on the rangers vs motherwell money line and also betting on the over 2.5, and 3.5 goals is worth it?

I am mainly betting for fun but read sharop sportsbook and yaos book recently, I would like to get some input on 2 bets:
Europe league I bet -300 benfica to advance to next round against hertha and cologne +188 to win against augsburg and -102 over 2.5 goals in german cup game both bets in regular time.

none of Rangers 3 main strikers started in Saturdays cup game, presumably rested for this game. Rangers-1 is available at around even money. I will be waiting until the lineups are announced nearer the time before I make any bets

so basically my bets are awesome

1899 Hoffenheim missing Obasi who has scored a fair chunk of their goals but the supremacy has only shifted 0.3 of a goal. With 1899 Hoffenheim defender out as well, Bremen look good tonight in the Cup at 1.68.

I am not quoting this to rub it in and I am not saying my picks are great..but it is slightly misleading to others on the forum to give this rationale for a Premiership game. The price as proven by bots and models is literally perfect (or close enough). The low-scoring nature of how Birmingham play is obviously factored into the price of the Wolves +0.5 etc. I am not hating just to be clear and I like to read opinions rather than a straight pick...but it is better to look elsewhere!

Man City vs Bolton -1.5 1u @ 2.34

City may have slipped up last time vs Hull but their home form has been solid as a rock. Adebayor is now back with some games. They have strengthened the squad in midfield a little bit and considering how many chances he has missed the last 2 games Tevez could be very hungry for goals here. Coyle has had very little success thus far with I believe only win for Bolton, none away from home. I can see City winning this comfortably enough.

Fulham vs Burnley - straight bet 1u @ 1.81

Burnley's turgid away record and complete lack of ability to score goals away vs a very solid Fulham home defense. Considered betting exact score 1-0 but thought Fulham might even win by more than that so went for the straight win instead. Low odds for sure considering its Fulham but considered it value at this point. I don't rate Laws as a manager. I doubt anyone does, don't think he is going to conjure up Burnleys first away win here.