Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 30 - Sports Betting

To maintain an average of just 1u I'd have to have a significant amount of lessthan 1u bets just to compensate for the times I make a 2 or 4u play

IIRC my avg is around 2.3u. The majority are 2u followed closely by 1u,4u and the occasional 8u+ play.
I think i've had 4 8u+ plays in my last 250 bets

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02-04-2010 , 01:46 PM

#727

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Tonight's first pick:
<2.5gls Charleroi V St.Liege 2u @ 1.82

not looked at any other games yet

Quote

02-04-2010 , 01:56 PM

#728

Gazo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 711

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

To maintain an average of just 1u I'd have to have a significant amount of lessthan 1u bets just to compensate for the times I make a 2 or 4u play

Erm, no not meaning an actual average. Perhaps should have said "normal play".

I now have no idea how you arrive at your betting amounts.

So if you are laying 10u on let's say 10 single bets that day for instance, you have a big one at 4u, then some at 1u, then make up the total by placing <1u bets!!

Surely if you like a play, you bet your "normal" amount on that single play. If you think it's worth a big play then step it up a couple of units as however you calculate it. Not really with you at all (obv) on the need for compensating bit.

Quote

02-04-2010 , 02:18 PM

#729

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazo

I see what you meant now.
I use fractional kelly. the fraction size differs depending on the league in question.
Most of my plays are 1-2u.

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02-04-2010 , 02:28 PM

#730

LT_21

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 335

roma and a.madrid double tonight

Quote

02-04-2010 , 02:34 PM

#731

Gazo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 711

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

I see what you meant now.
I use fractional kelly. the fraction size differs depending on the league in question.
Most of my plays are 1-2u.

Ah ok, fair enough.

GL with your bets this weekend however you decide to bet

Quote

02-04-2010 , 03:34 PM

#732

JermNZ

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 174

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

Tonight's first pick:
<2.5gls Charleroi V St.Liege 2u @ 1.82

not looked at any other games yet

tailed!

Quote

02-04-2010 , 06:30 PM

#733

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

so close...........til Charleroi scored 2 goals in 4 mins just before full time...........FT 2-2
-2u tonight

Quote

02-04-2010 , 08:05 PM

#734

rocky1210

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 596

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorntoc

so close...........til Charleroi scored 2 goals in 4 mins just before full time...........FT 2-2
-2u tonight

ft was 3-2 to standard liege mate

Quote

02-05-2010 , 05:38 AM

#735

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocky1210

ft was 3-2 to standard liege mate

Lol so it was.....I turned it off at 90mins

Quote

02-05-2010 , 12:28 PM

#736

VillainUnknown

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,957

Birmingham to beat Wolves at 1.86 anyone?

Looks pretty good to me.

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02-05-2010 , 02:09 PM

#737

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

W.Bremen HT V Hertha 1u @ 2
>2.5gls W.Bremen V Hertha 2u @ 1.67
Lay Hertha V W.Bremen @ 8.2 Laying approx 4u to win 0.5u

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02-05-2010 , 02:33 PM

#738

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Today I have:

Back Newcastle @ 1.95
Lay W.Bremen @ 1.48
Back Molde @ 2.44

I also backed rio ferdinand to start as next england captain @ 1.9 and layed it off within minutes at 1.3

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02-05-2010 , 05:26 PM

#739

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

small profit tonight +0.8u

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02-05-2010 , 07:42 PM

#740

LT_21

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 335

did notts forest,huddersfield,dundee and ross county tomorrow gl all

Quote

02-05-2010 , 09:57 PM

#741

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Everton+0.5 @ even odds seems nice. I also like Everton to win outright +300.

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02-06-2010 , 06:28 AM

#742

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Can't remember the last time I bet an accumulator, so I thought I'd attempt to take advantage of Hills %25 coupon bonus....Just for fun
14-fold combos from the following 20 picks
Hibernian @ 1.08
Man Utd @ 1.12
Man City @ 1.73
Chesterfield @ 1.61
Leeds @ 1.73
Aberdeen @ 1.83
Birmingham @ 1.83 Draw @ 3.20
Motherwell @ 1.80 Draw @ 3.50
Stoke @ 2.25
Sunderland @ 2.05 Draw @ 3.30
Fulham @ 3.50 Draw @ 3.25
West Ham @ 2.80 Draw @ 3.25
S****horpe @ 2.50 Draw @ 3.30
Macclesfield @ 2.75

I'll still be betting my usual straight match bets but I hope others will join me in this one.....GOGOGOGO Macclesfield(and all the others)!!!

Quote

02-06-2010 , 07:14 AM

#743

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

lol s****horpe

Quote

02-06-2010 , 07:25 AM

#744

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

lol also it should be
S****horpe @ 2.50
Macclesfield @ 2.75 Draw @ 3.30

Quote

02-06-2010 , 08:25 AM

#745

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Liv V Ever 2u @ 2.08
<2.5gls StMir. V Rangers 1u @ 2.12
Boyd,Miller & Novo all on the bench for this one

Last edited by thorntoc; 02-06-2010 at 08:35 AM.

Quote

02-06-2010 , 08:41 AM

#746

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Liverpool v Everton Draw @ 3.35
with the intention of laying off late inplay

small bet on 2-2 @ 19.5

Quote

02-06-2010 , 08:42 AM

#747

AshleyC

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,278

Thoughts on Hull - Man City draw @ 3.8 on Betfair?

Hull have lost 1 of their last 9 at home, City have won just 1 of last 9 away games. Plus City may have lost some steam after their recent cup losses. Think that the price over-values City. You can also lay City at 1.82.

Quote

02-06-2010 , 08:57 AM

#748

thorntoc

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 626

Swansea V Preston DRAW 1u @ 3.7
<2.5gls 2u @ 1.71

Quote

02-06-2010 , 09:06 AM

#749

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by AshleyC

Man Utd 3-1 Man City
S****horpe 2-4 Man City
Everton 2-0 Man City
Middlesbrough 0-1 Man City
Wolves 0-3 Man City
Tottenham 3-0 Man City

Citys last 6 away all comps

won 3. The games they have lost have been to United, Everton and Spurs

Last edited by Mrtrebus; 02-06-2010 at 09:13 AM.

Quote

02-06-2010 , 09:08 AM

#750

Mrtrebus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,962

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mrtrebus

Man Utd 3-1 Man City
S****horpe 2-4 Man City
Everton 2-0 Man City
Middlesbrough 0-1 Man City
Wolves 0-3 Man City
Tottenham 3-0 Man City

Citys last 6 all comps

won 3. The games they have lost have been to United, Everton and Spurs

Previous to this I think they had only lost in the 4-3 to United

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