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Old 01-31-2010, 08:02 AM   #676
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
I know this looks like resulting now that Real won, but I thought this and never got around to posting before the game. I put virtually no trust in statistics like this. There will always be crazy runs of wins and losses in sports just because they happen at random. 17 games without a win is a run a bit too long to be down to pure chance. The problem is, what relevance does a 1993 match between Madrid and Deportivo have to a match played today? The correct answer is zero. The teams don't share a single player in common, the coaching staff are likely all different, hell there probably aren't even many of the same fans going to the match. The argument that Deportivo have some psychological hex on Madrid I simply don't buy. The players are well aware it's just another game. So the run of 17 is unlikely to be down to pure chance - but whatever advantage Deportivo held over Real at some point in the past is also unlikely to still exist.
I agree that it is statistically insignificant. However, these records tend to be hyped-up by the press and in this case provide additional motivation to end the streak.
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Old 01-31-2010, 08:20 AM   #677
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Adebayor and Toure are back. MC just too strong vs one of the worst teams in the league. I have MC's excpected goal supremacy as a huge +2.2 for this fixture
My picks:
MC HT V Ports. 2u @ 1.77
MC-1 V Ports. 2u @ 1.75
>2.5gls MC V Ports 2u @ 1.79
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Old 01-31-2010, 08:40 AM   #678
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Dortmund+0.5 V Stuttgart 1u @ 1.78
<2.5gls Feyen. V Ajax (IP 54m 0-1) 1u @ 1.65

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 08:47 AM.
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Old 01-31-2010, 09:33 AM   #679
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Milan HT V Livorno 2u @ 1.75
Dutch 2-0,3-0 Milan V Livorno risking approx 0.35u to win 1.1u
Cagliari V Fiorentina 1u @ 2.66
>2.5gls Cagliari V Fiorentina 1u @ 2.16
Catania V Udinese 1u @ 2.42
<1.5gls Catania V Udinese 1u @ 3.1

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 10:00 AM.
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Old 01-31-2010, 09:58 AM   #680
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
I know this looks like resulting now that Real won, but I thought this and never got around to posting before the game. I put virtually no trust in statistics like this. There will always be crazy runs of wins and losses in sports just because they happen at random. 17 games without a win is a run a bit too long to be down to pure chance. The problem is, what relevance does a 1993 match between Madrid and Deportivo have to a match played today? The correct answer is zero. The teams don't share a single player in common, the coaching staff are likely all different, hell there probably aren't even many of the same fans going to the match. The argument that Deportivo have some psychological hex on Madrid I simply don't buy. The players are well aware it's just another game. So the run of 17 is unlikely to be down to pure chance - but whatever advantage Deportivo held over Real at some point in the past is also unlikely to still exist.
The fact Deportivo rise to the occasion for Real's visits and Real know this record exists adds a notable psychological aspect in favour of the home team's value imo, on top of the solid home form, injuries, suspended players etc etc. All in all, I saw a lot of value in Deportivo in a lot of markets. Some came off, some didn't (obviously) .
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Old 01-31-2010, 10:58 AM   #681
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Arsenal V MU 1u @ 2.62
>2.5gls Arsenal V MU 1u @ 2.08
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Old 01-31-2010, 11:07 AM   #682
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Ok, just for fun: United v arsenal .66 units @ 2.95
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Old 01-31-2010, 11:48 AM   #683
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I hope you win sir!
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Old 01-31-2010, 12:11 PM   #684
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Arsenal -128
o2.5 +120
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Old 01-31-2010, 12:54 PM   #685
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

not much happening in this one:
Ghana V Egypt DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.34
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Old 01-31-2010, 01:03 PM   #686
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Tenerife V Zaragoza DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.7
Getafe V Santander DRAW (IP HT 0-0) 1u @ 2.76
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Old 01-31-2010, 01:13 PM   #687
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Villareal+1 V Osasuna (IP 55m 0-1) 1u @ 2.05
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Old 01-31-2010, 01:34 PM   #688
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Malaga+0.5 V Ath.Madrid 1u @ 2.32
Valencia V Sevilla 1u @ 3.55
>2.5gls Sevilla V Valencia 1u @ 1.91

Last edited by thorntoc; 01-31-2010 at 01:45 PM.
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Old 01-31-2010, 02:34 PM   #689
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
The fact Deportivo rise to the occasion for Real's visits and Real know this record exists adds a notable psychological aspect in favour of the home team's value imo, on top of the solid home form, injuries, suspended players
Couldn't you literally write anything here concerning the two teams and have the same validity?

There is a negative story in the press about X, so he won't play 100%.

I saw an interview with the manager and he said they are really up for this game.

Last season Real lost to Deportivo in controversial circumstances, so now they are out for revenge.

etc etc.
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Old 01-31-2010, 04:26 PM   #690
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

What are you guys thoughts on which bookies have the most efficient lines and which the softest (excluding exchanges) for soccer markets?
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Old 01-31-2010, 04:28 PM   #691
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Corals had a ridiculous line on the over/under for sev/val. Under @ 1.9 and over @ 1.81.
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Old 02-01-2010, 12:47 AM   #692
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
The fact Deportivo rise to the occasion for Real's visits and Real know this record exists adds a notable psychological aspect in favour of the home team's value imo
Or perhaps the fact that this record is a thorn in the side of Real Madrid would spur them on to a better performance. The beauty of theories like this is that they're unfalsifiable in the absence of hard data. Most of the time, when there's hard data, it tends not to support big psychological influences on the result.
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Old 02-01-2010, 03:31 PM   #693
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

All my indicators are pointing towards the under 2.5gls for Sund/Stoke.
10u @ 1.73
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Old 02-01-2010, 04:52 PM   #694
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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All my indicators are pointing towards the under 2.5gls for Sund/Stoke.
10u @ 1.73
WoW , good luck sir!!!!
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Old 02-01-2010, 05:01 PM   #695
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

also 1u DRAW @ 2.44 (ip HT 0-0)
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Old 02-01-2010, 05:02 PM   #696
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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WoW , good luck sir!!!!
ty.......so far so good!!
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Old 02-01-2010, 06:00 PM   #697
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Old 02-01-2010, 06:04 PM   #698
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

nice winning night after a couple losing days in a row.
2 for 2 tonight +8.4u
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Old 02-01-2010, 07:22 PM   #699
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

preston 5/6
aberdeen 4/6

nice double for tomorrow also add these 2 with accrington stanley and colchester.
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Old 02-02-2010, 02:39 AM   #700
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

nice work thorntoc keep 'em coming!
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