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Old 12-07-2020, 06:15 PM   #6826
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I didn't realize it opened at +240, that's sick. Good find.
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Old 12-07-2020, 06:17 PM   #6827
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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I didn't realize it opened at +240, that's sick. Good find.
Thanks. It was 2 weeks ago.
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Old 12-09-2020, 06:07 PM   #6828
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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(5.5 - 2.5 - 2, +3.7u ytd)

Here's a fun one. Unless someone can point out a math/tiebreaker error below, I'm taking:

Borussia Monchengladbach to win Group B +175, 1u to win 1.75u
Gladbach lost, still advance, but our bet is a loser.

5.5 - 3.5 - 2, +2.7u ytd

Three wagers outstanding tomorrow in the Europa League and one (Columbus +185) that looks fantastic for Saturday.
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Old 12-10-2020, 08:59 AM   #6829
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Gladbach lost, still advance, but our bet is a loser.

5.5 - 3.5 - 2, +2.7u ytd

Three wagers outstanding tomorrow in the Europa League and one (Columbus +185) that looks fantastic for Saturday.
That one hurt for sure. I also had Shakhtar at +900 and they got oh so close but couldn't sneak one past the keeper. Oh well, good bets are good bets.
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Old 12-10-2020, 09:07 AM   #6830
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Question for those with experience betting on Champions league: The round of 16 draw is on Monday with games to be played in Feb. Will the books put up lines right away once the draw is announced? Is it best to try to pounce on lines as soon as they come out or wait till closer to the matches?
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Old 12-10-2020, 11:15 AM   #6831
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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That one hurt for sure. I also had Shakhtar at +900 and they got oh so close but couldn't sneak one past the keeper. Oh well, good bets are good bets.
Yup, I had Shakhtar at +890, +900, and piled on a little more at +950. We take those for sure but they don't feel good.
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Old 12-10-2020, 01:40 PM   #6832
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Recycling the group winner methodology to grab Leicester City -400 to win Group G, 2u to win 0.5u today in the Europa League.

Leicester own the tiebreaker with Braga and so win the group if:

1. They win.
2. They draw and Braga does not win.
3. They lose and Braga lose.

via Pinnacle this happens at -436 so -400 is a reasonable edge.

Qualitatively I think the wager checks out too. Leicester and Braga both play at home, but AEK Athens are a lower-quality opponent than Zorya Luhansk. Leicester's home matches so far were 4-0 over Braga and 3-0 over Zorya Luhansk. They won their away match in Athens 2-1.

Never a fan of backing such heavy favorites but the edge seems worthwhile.
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Old 12-10-2020, 02:35 PM   #6833
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Recycling the group winner methodology to grab Leicester City -400 to win Group G, 2u to win 0.5u today in the Europa League.

Leicester own the tiebreaker with Braga and so win the group if:

1. They win.
2. They draw and Braga does not win.
3. They lose and Braga lose.

via Pinnacle this happens at -436 so -400 is a reasonable edge.

Qualitatively I think the wager checks out too. Leicester and Braga both play at home, but AEK Athens are a lower-quality opponent than Zorya Luhansk. Leicester's home matches so far were 4-0 over Braga and 3-0 over Zorya Luhansk. They won their away match in Athens 2-1.

Never a fan of backing such heavy favorites but the edge seems worthwhile.
Idk I think Pinnacle's line on Lester to win today is pretty steep. Sure they are far better than Athens but they have not been in top form lately.
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Old 12-10-2020, 02:48 PM   #6834
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Aside from their weird home loss to Fulham, I'm not sure they've had anything particularly worrisome lately? Also I'm not sure generally how much I rate recent form as anything more than variance over a small sample size.



To me this tracks pretty closely with a team that should win outright at home > 70% of the time against a weak opponent. But it is a pretty big disaster if that's not the case.
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Old 12-10-2020, 03:55 PM   #6835
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Some pretty heavy steam knocked Braga down to a 0.75 goal favorite, so this implied line is now sitting at -486. Some insurance. I'm doubling down on my end but we'll keep it as the original 2u here.
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Old 12-10-2020, 05:55 PM   #6836
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Rapid Vienna 2 - 2 Molde (win)
CSKA Sofia 3 - 1 Roma (loss)
Wolfsberger 1 - 0 Feyenoord (loss)
Leicester 2 - 0 AEK Athens (win)

2-2 on the day, -0.82u

Not sure what happened in Sofia. I would watch the game, they'd look like a bad MLS team, and then I'd go back to watching the good Napoli vs Real Sociedad game and see that CSKA Sofia scored again. Beat the closing line by half a goal, but so it goes. Beat the closing line fairly significantly on all four of these as far as I care.

7.5 - 5.5 - 2, +1.88u ytd

Only wager outstanding is Columbus +185 to win the cup.
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Old 12-10-2020, 06:07 PM   #6837
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Rapid Vienna 2 - 2 Molde (win)
CSKA Sofia 3 - 1 Roma (loss)
Wolfsberger 1 - 0 Feyenoord (loss)
Leicester 2 - 0 AEK Athens (win)

2-2 on the day, -0.82u

Not sure what happened in Sofia. I would watch the game, they'd look like a bad MLS team, and then I'd go back to watching the good Napoli vs Real Sociedad game and see that CSKA Sofia scored again. Beat the closing line by half a goal, but so it goes. Beat the closing line fairly significantly on all four of these as far as I care.

7.5 - 5.5 - 2, +1.88u ytd

Only wager outstanding is Columbus +185 to win the cup.
Nice work on Lester. I had them winning the group already, so worked out for me too.
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Old 12-10-2020, 06:20 PM   #6838
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I'm just glad I chased the steam and doubled down off-thread

Had a really good day that at least halfway canceled out yesterday's disaster.
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Old 12-11-2020, 03:13 PM   #6839
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Pretty big blow, the line shifted from a coinflip to Columbus +140 after a couple important players test COVID-positive.
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Old 12-12-2020, 11:40 PM   #6840
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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(5.5 - 2.5 - 2, +3.7u ytd)

One more for now in advance of the MLS game tonight:

Columbus +185 to win MLS Cup, 1u to win 1.85u

My basic model suggests Columbus should be favored outright at home against both Western Conference finalists, so I'm going to lock this up now even if there *might* be a better price in the next few days if Seattle advances. I have a feeling I'm just going to be pretty heavy on Columbus either way this week. I don't think they necessarily *should* be favored outright, since my model is probably overrating them in what's been a weird, small-sample size season. But I do think that the fair price here is a lot closer to +100 than it is +185 and that would make 1u an egregious underbet.

Note that this grades next week 12/12.
Columbus wins 3-0.

Really happy about this one. The line to win the cup settled in around +110 for Columbus and they certainly looked like they should be favored outright based on how they played in the first half, and overall across both halves.

Finishes off the MLS season and Europa/Champions League group stages at 8.5 - 5.5 - 2, +3.73u.
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Old 12-25-2020, 11:59 PM   #6841
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

(8.5 - 5.5 - 2, +3.73u ytd)

Taking Chapecoense -130 to win outright at home 12/28 against Parana in Brazil's Serie B.

Chapecoense is leading the league table, they're playing at home against a team likely to be relegated. This seems discounted by at least 20c and I bet it climbs closer to (or past) -150 before the game kicks off. Another case where I think the line is maybe a quarter goal too short and folks might be scared off by the lower game total of 1.75. Chapecoense wins this 1-0 or 2-0 very often, draws some 0-0 and 1-1, and they rarely lose it. Parana wins outright maybe 10-15% of the time.

Chapecoense -130 vs Parana Clube 3-way, 1.3u to win 1u
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Old 12-28-2020, 08:54 PM   #6842
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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(8.5 - 5.5 - 2, +3.73u ytd)

Taking Chapecoense -130 to win outright at home 12/28 against Parana in Brazil's Serie B.

Chapecoense is leading the league table, they're playing at home against a team likely to be relegated. This seems discounted by at least 20c and I bet it climbs closer to (or past) -150 before the game kicks off. Another case where I think the line is maybe a quarter goal too short and folks might be scared off by the lower game total of 1.75. Chapecoense wins this 1-0 or 2-0 very often, draws some 0-0 and 1-1, and they rarely lose it. Parana wins outright maybe 10-15% of the time.

Chapecoense -130 vs Parana Clube 3-way, 1.3u to win 1u
The price was looking great until sometime late yesterday. I piled on a little bit more at -141 and I think Pinnacle peaked over -160. Then some late injury news broke (?) and the price tanked. Almost piled on a little bit at +105 right before kickoff but declined. Did pick up some -0.75 -102 and an over 1.75 -112 along the way.

Fading steam nearly always makes me very uncomfortable. Almost instant regret as Chapecoense took a quick 2-0 lead into halftime and was never really threatened.

Chapecoense 2 - 0 Parana Clube

1-0, +1u

9.5 - 5.5 - 2, +4.73u ytd
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Old 12-31-2020, 12:27 AM   #6843
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

If some of you need help to bet large volume on top 15-20 soccer leagues, let me know, I am able to help.
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Old 02-01-2021, 07:08 PM   #6844
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

(9.5 - 5.5 - 2, +4.73u ytd)

Taking a stake in this one way earlier than I normally would, because I don't think this price sticks around. But whether it does or not, I'd still consider piling on more as we get closer to gameday (Feb 23).

Atletico Madrid -0.25 vs Chelsea (+108, 1u to win 1.08u)

Both teams are deceptively close in quality given their respective league tables, but this game is being played in Madrid. Atletico Madrid simply have not been losing. They have a 2-0 home win each against Sevilla and Real Sociedad recently, which are at least decent proxies for Chelsea's quality in aggregate.

Chelsea meanwhile have had somewhat public problems, have away losses at Leicester, Arsenal, Manchester City, Wolves, and Everton since the Champions League group stage ended, and while I think their team isn't that much worse than Atletico Madrid, this line is generously priced at +108.

Fair price is somewhere much closer to -110, and I would certainly feel great betting this down to +100. It would not surprise me at all if this price looks like a free quarter goal by the time the 23rd rolls around.
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Old 02-12-2021, 06:05 PM   #6845
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Neutral venue confirmed now, probably would not advise this line at this price any longer. If there's value left there it's too slim to worry about.
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Old 02-23-2021, 09:34 PM   #6846
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Neutral venue confirmed now, probably would not advise this line at this price any longer. If there's value left there it's too slim to worry about.
0-1, -1u

9.5 - 6.5 - 2, +3.73u ytd

Neither team really looked like they deserved a win, but this bet was a poor one long before kickoff today.
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Old 03-12-2021, 02:42 AM   #6847
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I just opened a Bovada account and see that they have some super obscure soccer leagues: Tanzania, Gambia and Mauritania, just to name a few. I placed a few $1 bets just for fun. I noticed the implied probabilities for moneyline bets add up to ~110% in these leagues, while for mainstream leagues like England and Germany it’s 105%. I’m guessing Bovada gives themselves more wiggle room because they have less info about these leagues and are less confident about the lines they give.

1. Does anyone bet on super obscure leagues?
2. How does Bovada make these lines? Do they just rely on a purely data dependent system using goal differential/home advantage/etc.?
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Old 03-12-2021, 12:46 PM   #6848
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Does anyone bet on super obscure leagues?
If our league (which is supposed to finally start tomorrow) qualifies as super obscure league then yes ?!?
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Old 03-12-2021, 01:00 PM   #6849
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

everything estonian is obscure unless you're estonian or finnish
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Old 03-12-2021, 03:56 PM   #6850
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

lol, "obscure" is definitely in the eye of the beholder
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