Quote:
Originally Posted by qotd
(8.5 - 5.5 - 2, +3.73u ytd)
Taking Chapecoense -130 to win outright at home 12/28 against Parana in Brazil's Serie B.
Chapecoense is leading the league table, they're playing at home against a team likely to be relegated. This seems discounted by at least 20c and I bet it climbs closer to (or past) -150 before the game kicks off. Another case where I think the line is maybe a quarter goal too short and folks might be scared off by the lower game total of 1.75. Chapecoense wins this 1-0 or 2-0 very often, draws some 0-0 and 1-1, and they rarely lose it. Parana wins outright maybe 10-15% of the time.
Chapecoense -130 vs Parana Clube 3-way, 1.3u to win 1u
The price was looking great until sometime late yesterday. I piled on a little bit more at -141 and I think Pinnacle peaked over -160. Then some late injury news broke (?) and the price tanked. Almost piled on a little bit at +105 right before kickoff but declined. Did pick up some -0.75 -102 and an over 1.75 -112 along the way.
Fading steam nearly always makes me very uncomfortable. Almost instant regret as Chapecoense took a quick 2-0 lead into halftime and was never really threatened.
Chapecoense 2 - 0 Parana Clube
1-0, +1u
9.5 - 5.5 - 2, +4.73u ytd