Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 267 - Sports Betting

Anybody check out the lines posted today for this weekend Championship and League 1 matches?

In my infant betting life, I don't think I've ever seen so many games with such odds.

Ex,
Luton Town +189
Vs Birmingham +132

Wigan +129
Vs Bristol City +199

There must be well over Ten matches with similar lines.

Would this be a perfect opportunity to just pick some winners and hope for the best?

Quote

01-09-2020 , 07:25 AM

#6654

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Draw isnt just paint on some canvas

Quote

01-09-2020 , 08:34 AM

#6655

kolotoure2.0

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 423

Why has the Barca price moved so much? I haven't been able to find any team news to support the move

Quote

01-09-2020 , 09:15 AM

#6656

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolotoure2.0

Why has the Barca price moved so much? I haven't been able to find any team news to support the move

what big move are you talking about? i didnt see any

Quote

01-09-2020 , 10:00 AM

#6657

kolotoure2.0

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 423

Most of the move seemed to occur overnight

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01-09-2020 , 10:29 AM

#6658

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,471

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte

Draw isnt just paint on some canvas

Draws are why I'm so hesitant to bet on soccer I'm sure mathematically it's indifferent to other sports but it feels like playing roulette with double zero

Quote

01-09-2020 , 10:38 AM

#6659

kolotoure2.0

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 423

That is why asian handicap is bae

Quote

01-09-2020 , 11:04 AM

#6660

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolotoure2.0

That is why asian handicap is bae

isnt that easy.

rickroll is somewhat right being uncomfortable about draws. It changes the dynamic of the game. There are some cases where both teams benefit from drawing the game.

Quote

01-09-2020 , 11:42 AM

#6661

kolotoure2.0

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 423

Obviously it isn't that simple; my post was not entirely serious.

Obviously have to indetify games where a draw is mutually beneficial and allow for this when trying to create a model

Quote

01-09-2020 , 12:56 PM

#6662

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Yes, draws are obviously the trump factor in betting on soccer
It's not an easy game to predict.
That's why I've moved away somewhat form soccer actually.
I bet on anything good I can find.
Couple of weeks ago, I got 10 out of 16 NFL picks right.
All small betting units. Nothing significant yet.
I'm still too new to the game to try my hand at props yet, but I'm steadily making strides. Thanks to all the lurking I'm doing here.
Hey, you guys are appreciated!
ANd, I haven't gone broke yet!!

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 01-09-2020 at 01:03 PM.

Quote

01-09-2020 , 06:04 PM

#6663

Hammerzitzen

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 233

VITORIA SETUBAL VS SPORTING LISBON - apparently 80% of vitorias starting team must be anti-vax and have a severe flu. Sporting opened like -120 now -325 and the handicap -1.5 opened +250 now -120 wild stuff.

Quote

01-09-2020 , 09:33 PM

#6664

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

/\

Just saw that. Interesting
Haven't been following the Portuguese league this year
Maybe a mistake

Quote

01-09-2020 , 10:50 PM

#6665

tfall

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008

/\

Just saw that. Interesting
Haven't been following the Portuguese league this year
Maybe a mistake

too much over game on that league?

Quote

01-10-2020 , 05:11 AM

#6666

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammerzitzen

the most probable result is the game to be postponed

Quote

01-10-2020 , 05:19 AM

#6667

Hammerzitzen

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 233

the league ruled that it was up to sporting and they declined to postpone, second string line up more likely imo

Quote

01-10-2020 , 09:50 AM

#6668

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Just saw and bet 2 units on Sheffield United for the win vs
West ham
Sheffield are getting even money on a win on betonline.

I know West ham are playing better, especially since the trainer change, but Sheffield have had a stronger season than expected so far and I think it's worth backing them for that price.

Supposed to be a low scoring match so I guess a draw is also a reasonable outcome.

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 01-10-2020 at 10:16 AM.

Quote

01-10-2020 , 10:01 AM

#6669

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfall

too much over game on that league?

Don't know the Portuguese league well.
But from a glance, except for the top 5 teams, looks like a pretty low scoring league. If that was your question?

Quote

01-10-2020 , 10:25 AM

#6670

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008

Edit

It's expected to be a low scoring game, thus explaining the lines and making a draw more possible.
But I would be very surprised to see an upset.

Quote

01-10-2020 , 10:48 AM

#6671

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Benfica -1020
Rio Ave +3300

To take Benfica for 100 bucks, you win a grand total of 9.80

Quote

01-10-2020 , 02:13 PM

#6672

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Glancing over the last 4 match days of the Portuguese league
Looks like on average, half the games are under 2.5
Was doing the same for premier league
Vast majority of Premier league draws are under, 1-1 being the most consistent result
After 0-0

From my amateur analysis, seems that low scoring teams are the most likely to draw.

Anybody here occupy themselves much with betting unders?

Quote

01-10-2020 , 02:53 PM

#6673

Risto234

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 183

Looked for any game tonight where hosts arent clear favourites ... 2 games stood out but after closer look i decided to NOT go with portuguese game cause i feel that Rennes at home vs Marseille have better chance to cause their opponents problems ...

So i went with Rennes over 1.0 goals and over 5.0 corners - hopefully they'll make sure they are giving their fans something to cheer about ...

Quote

01-11-2020 , 10:30 AM

#6674

tfall

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bjinxi

My bets for today ( Champions League ) :

FC Liverpool - Olympique Lyon
Glasgow Rangers - Unirea Urziceni
AZ Alkmaar - FC Arsenal

@ 4.36

Liverpool generally perform when they need to in the CL (except the last game).
Liverpool knows, that a win is very important while Lyon won't play for the win so a goal might be a matter of time.
Lyon will play Toulalan at centre half - and he is not very experienced so Liverpool will have an edge not to forget that Gerrard is fit again.

Rangers have to win at home against the "weakest" team of the group and they will.

Liverpool at 5/6 is a decent prize.

( I don't have that many betting accounts so you might get a better prize somewhere else)

same boat

Quote

01-12-2020 , 05:33 AM

#6675

Risto234

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 183

Today in premier league

Aston Villa vs Man City

Villa over 1.0 goals @3.15
Villa over 3.0 corners @2.05

Villa have scored in all but 1 home leaguegame so far this season. So eventhough they are probably playing defensively here then i hope they arent naive enough to park the bus 90 mins vs team who still cant defend and therefore they actually try to attack so they'd give their fans something to cheer about ...

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