PDM, you post on a very wide variety of leagues around the world.

Do you run models or is this more knowledge based decisions?

I have a model but not a specific formula. The game is the same around the globe with some tweaks.
I posted some picks to see if that would create some traction in this forum.

I work alone but would like to change that.

I believe that some "good knowledge" carries way more value than any model

i'm very avid in soccer dfs, but most of what i do is based on vegas so working in the opposite direction

at least for dfs, soccer projections are infamously bad, which keeps a lot of the sharps out and therefore makes it a weaker field so you can handle the swings better because you're getting a lot guys simply picking Harry Kane because they like him much like people used to do in other sports as well

soccer is the only sport where I have to pay lots of attention to formations and who else is on the field

like the other day the wolves moved jonny and doherty up so they were good plays to get both defensive bonuses and increased goal equity - but I'm ffed if i'm going to use that to determine how that will impact the final score - just how it'll impact those two players - furthermore, dendoncker was playing defense so the little value he had as a midfielder was now kaput

that wolves game worked out perfectly, and then i screwed up royally going from rashford to mane because rashford wasn't playing up front and i was worried about his reduced scoring chances not being up front with martial - that one didn't pan out

Why dont you give up dfs? I dont know the limits of that, but with that amount of work you can have very nice profits on some props.

Besides, dont pick rashford to score goals, like ever. You have so much superior alternatives

haha, i'm definitely trying to spin these skills to sports betting, but in the meantime i find it's easier to beat the casual person button mashing in players than putting my model up against the books

i'm also one of the few guys actually reliably beating dfs

you are exactly correct on rashford but it was a 4 game slate and choices were limited to arsenal/liverpool/MUN for seeking goals from the forward spot - normally it'd be best to pick the favorite goal scorer on each because it's more likely only one or two goals scored ie if you pick all the forwards on arsenal or all the forwards on pool you have a safer floor (because surely one of them should score but your upside is capped)

i stand by the mane/salah/abaumeyang over the salah/rashford/abaumeyang option and would do it again, but before i saw the lineups and formations, I was originally running out the one with rashford and martial was an absolute no go, especially since he usually only plays like 70 minutes too

Chelsea v Ajax - Both Teams To Score

Lokomotiv Moscow v Juventus - Bet Juventus To Win @ 1.65

FC St Pauli
Fenerbahce
Norwich City & over
over in Koln

well you sure nailed that one

this is the worst:

you got team A to win or -.25 and the over 2.5/3
Team B scores first early
Team B gets a red card shortly after
and right now boy do you think you are golden
but.....
Team A spends a full half + not able to score and you lose 1-0 or maybe 1-1 just to give you hope

Anybody have any opinions, insight on the Brighton vs Leicester game?
Leicester has been on a tear and they're getting such a good price.

As of now, the line on BetOnline is
Brighton +235
Leicester +113

the problem with that is that you dont know why they have been on this run, and when it would end.

Well, I shot first and asked questions later. I bet a unit right away, knowing the price would change.

Outside of Leicester playing away, I don't see any other disadvantage.
I couldn't find any reports of injuries or suspension. Maybe I didn't do proper research?

It's none the less, win or lose, a good value wager, isn't it?

Moenchenhladbach in the Bundesliga is also getting a very good price against Union Berlin. I put a unit on that match as well.

Ok, Leicester city young talent Madison has a calf injury but it doesn't seem to be serious. Besides, although a good player, I think he only started one game. Other than that, all seems well.

great research. maddison has started 11 out of 12 leicesters league games, playing 962 out of 1080 minutes

Thanks for the info.
Are you trying to say that Leicester is a bad team and I'm a sucker for taking them against Brighton?

no, he's saying that a casual observer would know that maddison is an incredibly talented player and not just one of the most important guys on that team, but the league as well

he's pointing out that it's mildly concerning you're betting on a team when you aren't even sure who on the team is important

I regret making making that observation about Madison in such a casual manner that I did, simply from the standpoint that a novice would maybe be influenced to make an incorrect decision based on my bad info. I apologize for that.
But, as you said, a casual observer would know who he is.

The crux of my first post was to maybe get an opinion on weather picking Leicester city over Brighton was a good decision or not. Some feedback on what would cause the books to give Leicester such a good price. I mean, I think +113 is a very good price for the 2nd place team in the Premier league vs a middle of the table opponent.
Is it just a fluke that Leicester sit at the top of the table?
Was it just luck that they beat Southampton 9 to null?
Is Brighton a lot stronger side than it appears.
In other words, I wasn't to to show how smart I am. I was trying to fish for knowledge.
But, aside for concerns about my finances, and thinks for that, I haven't gotten much constructive feedback ate all. Once again.

soccer betting lines are a mystery to me

but BHA has been shockingly good this year, they are very good defensively, which is nothing new, but they're also scoring goals this year, something that they were incapable of doing last year (something like half their goals last season came from corner kicks), they've also brought in some new attackers who are finally getting acclimated to the new team and producing so now that they've seemed to figure out their achilles heal, they're suddenly a very strong team

even if they were facing last year's offensively inept BHA, there was always a decent chance at a 0-0 or 1-1 tie

of the three outcomes, is leicester going to outright beat BHA the 50% or so of the time necessary to pay off the odds, I honestly couldn't tell you, all I can tell you is Leicester isn't nearly as good as their record indicates and BHA is far better than their reputation implies

having said all of that, i'd be inclined to join you in betting a unit on leicester

the backlash came not from you betting on them or asking questions about it

the backlash wasn't because you mistakenly failed to recognize Maddison is quite arguably the best and most important player on that team

the backlash came because you spent the time to research him and yet somehow fundamentally misinterpreted it to the point where you not only believed him to be insigificant but also thought he didn't even play either... so one may be a little skeptical you have the attention to detail or the analytical chops to do well in this

fyi, this is a team that beat tottenham 3-0 a month ago, they are more than capable of beating leicester at home outright or tieing them, I prefer leicester as an obvious favorite, but nobody would be surprised if BHA win or tie this game, especially so if Maddison doesn't play

Rick, thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed analysis.
I agree with everything you said. About the teams and about the way I phrased my question.
Your response was the type of feedback I was looking for.
It would be cool if we could have such productive back and forths on this thread.

Football lines? I don't know that much about how the line is set either.
Since I don't know the sophisticated methods some others probably apply here, I just have to rely on my own approach. I treat my wagers sort of like a poker hand. If I think, the possibility of a positive result along with the line given is positive ev, I'll go with it.
What am I to do, American football? I bet Texas to beat the Colts, with a line of 3.5, and Texas won....20 to 17

Cheers.

Anyone with a model that would want to work together in a small skype group hit me up with a pm would be interested in sharing ideas

Went with Liverpool -1 AH tonight although considering how well they have defended recently then BTTS/Bournemouth goals would have been better option perhaps ...

Wtf is with Liverpool @6/4 at home against Everton?

I would only give 1/3 for Liverpool at home to Everton. They have been huge odds on at home against every team in the league expect Man city and few others?

Must be something am missing as that price is insane.

Just checked FA cup so they will probably rest the best players? They have huge lead in league were it makes sense they can afford to play normal team and try win fa cup? Just shows what big teams think of fa cup now they not interested and happy go out and have less games so concentrate on champion league and premier.

Would not recommend betting them @ 6/4 as you won't get there best team by far.

10 mins in play and Liverpool have gone from 6/4 to 3/1 and Everton are 5/6? Never seen that before a team opens 6/4 and after few minutes play still 0-0 and no red cards they go to 3/1? Had more possession and more attacks must put Z team out ?