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Old 08-12-2017, 06:45 PM   #6551
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

what a screwy opening week for EPL
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Old 08-15-2017, 06:01 AM   #6552
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Sporting moneyline and Liverpool over look interesting
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Old 08-15-2017, 10:21 AM   #6553
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Porto Asian Handicap -1,75 against Moreirense at odds 1,71 .Sunday at 6 PM in Estadio do Dragao(Porto)



According to my Power Ratings(each player in the starting lineup,squad,coach,suporters,league projection)this is a game between the slight Favourite for the title against the favourite to go down Moreirense at the moment.
Porto is looking scary at the moment winning every game in August 4-0 Deportivo Coruna(last friendly at home),away at Gil vicente(last friendly away a second division team 1-3) and in the Primeira Liga they won the first game against a middle table team Estoril Praia by 4-0 in a game they created plenty of clear goal scoring opportunities(10)and showed the new coach game model dynamic,of high pressure,strong reaction to disposession and they utterly dominated a good Estoril side but the gap between big 3 in Portugal(Benfica,Porto,Sporting) and smaller teams is immense much like in Spain
Last Sunday they won away by 1-0 at Tondela a relegation team candidate,but with much more quality than Moreirense and to be honest home and away performances usually in Portugal for the Big 3 are quite redundant.
One aspect that strikes me also in this bet at 1,71 is that Porto market avg price at home aside european teams(top 6) is the biggest since 15 th january,wich it indicates that Moreirense price is currently way overvalued.They are the main relegation candidates ,they were safe only in the last game and they saw 8 starting 11 players leaving and they were substituted by second divion sides.Their manager appointemnt is quite strange also Manuel Machado last season was fired by the two teams who dropped(Nacional Arouca)and its a very old coach that fails to adapt and last year was a clear example of his lack of competence at this point of his carreer.
This is clear value at the moment and the expected closing odds are below 1,64(the closing odds for Porto EstorilAH-1,75,a middle table team!,now they face a relegation candidate with higher odds available than that after Porto thrashed Estoril 4-0 and won away)
It is not feisable that this opening price(wich was not attacked yet)after Porto strong beggining of the season against the worst team arguably in the league it is above from the closing odds in the game with Estoril at 1,64.My pick is Porto AH-1,75
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Old 08-16-2017, 11:04 AM   #6554
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

barcelona today good pick to make $$$

glgl
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Old 08-17-2017, 09:10 AM   #6555
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
Porto Asian Handicap -1,75 against Moreirense at odds 1,71 .Sunday at 6 PM in Estadio do Dragao(Porto)



According to my Power Ratings(each player in the starting lineup,squad,coach,suporters,league projection)this is a game between the slight Favourite for the title against the favourite to go down Moreirense at the moment.
Porto is looking scary at the moment winning every game in August 4-0 Deportivo Coruna(last friendly at home),away at Gil vicente(last friendly away a second division team 1-3) and in the Primeira Liga they won the first game against a middle table team Estoril Praia by 4-0 in a game they created plenty of clear goal scoring opportunities(10)and showed the new coach game model dynamic,of high pressure,strong reaction to disposession and they utterly dominated a good Estoril side but the gap between big 3 in Portugal(Benfica,Porto,Sporting) and smaller teams is immense much like in Spain
Last Sunday they won away by 1-0 at Tondela a relegation team candidate,but with much more quality than Moreirense and to be honest home and away performances usually in Portugal for the Big 3 are quite redundant.
One aspect that strikes me also in this bet at 1,71 is that Porto market avg price at home aside european teams(top 6) is the biggest since 15 th january,wich it indicates that Moreirense price is currently way overvalued.They are the main relegation candidates ,they were safe only in the last game and they saw 8 starting 11 players leaving and they were substituted by second divion sides.Their manager appointemnt is quite strange also Manuel Machado last season was fired by the two teams who dropped(Nacional Arouca)and its a very old coach that fails to adapt and last year was a clear example of his lack of competence at this point of his carreer.
This is clear value at the moment and the expected closing odds are below 1,64(the closing odds for Porto EstorilAH-1,75,a middle table team!,now they face a relegation candidate with higher odds available than that after Porto thrashed Estoril 4-0 and won away)
It is not feisable that this opening price(wich was not attacked yet)after Porto strong beggining of the season against the worst team arguably in the league it is above from the closing odds in the game with Estoril at 1,64.My pick is Porto AH-1,75
Hi,
You're just the person I'm looking for possibly.
I bet exclusively on outright markets.
And this season there's one price in particular I can make neither head nor tail of.
Sporting Lisbon were as low as 2-1 to win the league before a ball was kicked and are still only 5-2.
Why are they so low,the lowest they've started for years I believe?
I realise that Benfica and Porto have lost very good players but this is quite normal isn't it ? And anyway they will have replaced them to some extent while Sporting will have lost a player or two.

Am I right to put Benfica and Porto in my bets?

I havnt done anything yet but from what I've seen so far it's normal service in this league.
Cheers
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Old 08-17-2017, 09:41 AM   #6556
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

There are two factors for Sporting beeing at the lowest odds outright in almost a decade pre season:
1-First Season they spend more than their rivals in many,many years(probably since 2002 last time they lifted the trophy 15 years ago)and their squad is definetely improved however not at the point the odds reflect and thats when the second aspect comes
-Sporting Lisbon is carryng all the Big Comission % in the outright markets

Sporting is definlety in contention but below clearly at the moment from Benfica and Porto.

However betting in outright market this year is Portugal is an horrible investment:
Very small edges on both Porto(3) and Benfica(2,3) for having your money almost 1 year tyed.Do not reccomend mate
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Old 08-17-2017, 10:42 AM   #6557
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
There are two factors for Sporting beeing at the lowest odds outright in almost a decade pre season:
1-First Season they spend more than their rivals in many,many years(probably since 2002 last time they lifted the trophy 15 years ago)and their squad is definetely improved however not at the point the odds reflect and thats when the second aspect comes
-Sporting Lisbon is carryng all the Big Comission % in the outright markets

Sporting is definlety in contention but below clearly at the moment from Benfica and Porto.

However betting in outright market this year is Portugal is an horrible investment:
Very small edges on both Porto(3) and Benfica(2,3) for having your money almost 1 year tyed.Do not reccomend mate
Thanks for the prompt reply.
I hadn't known they'd spent so much. Although obviously I wondered if that could be the reason.

I do realise that there are only small edges in outright prices.
Not just in Portugal but in almost all markets.
However outright markets are actually very easy to trade and that's what I do.
And I bet those trades in multiples.Throughout the season. The best time to do the first bet is long after the season starts so your money need not be tied up as long as many assume.

But I'm having trouble deciding what to do first re this market.

And that means I shall likely just wait for developments .

Thanks again
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Old 08-17-2017, 11:04 AM   #6558
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Porto at 3 will drop soon
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Old 08-19-2017, 04:56 AM   #6559
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Five 5-match accumulators: 4 Bankers with one from five Draws:

Leicester - H
Liverpool - H
Arsenal - A
Man Utd - A

Chesterfield - D
Crewe - D
Exeter - D
Stevenage - D
Wycombe - D

*

Edit: Leics, Liv & ManU won. Ars lost.
All my draw picks lost. Unusually, there were no draws at all in the 12 games of the division I use.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 08-19-2017 at 04:40 PM.
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Old 08-19-2017, 07:53 AM   #6560
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Lol Moderator,here since 2002 and suggesting 5 draws Acca.Come on Mike Haven
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Old 08-19-2017, 08:08 AM   #6561
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

No such thing as a banker in football betting.
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Old 08-19-2017, 08:46 AM   #6562
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
Lol Moderator,here since 2002 and suggesting 5 draws Acca.Come on Mike Haven
Lol user, here since May and can't read.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
No such thing as a banker in football betting.
Bankers in terms of my bets' bankers.
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Old 08-19-2017, 09:57 AM   #6563
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Leicester D
Liverpool D
Southampton D
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Old 08-19-2017, 10:36 AM   #6564
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Leicester D
Liverpool D
Southampton D
In the running, after 37 mins,

1-0
0-0
2-0

Glad you're wishing me good luck, chaps!
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Old 08-19-2017, 10:54 AM   #6565
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Hmmm

Let's see who's ahead at the end of the season - good luck backing odds on favourites.
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Old 08-19-2017, 11:52 AM   #6566
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Quote:
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Hmmm

Let's see who's ahead at the end of the season - good luck backing odds on favourites.
I guess you missed my explanation of the bets.

It doesn't matter that the favs are odds-on. The draws multiply each accumulator up to about 15 to 20 to 1.

As long as my "bankers" win, and at least one draw out of the five, I'm up 10 to 20 for a 5 stake. Two draws, up 25 to 35 for a 5 stake. **

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
Leicester D
Liverpool D
Southampton D
2-0
1-0
3-2



Edit: ** Lost all my draws so it's academic, this week.

I'll be back.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 08-19-2017 at 11:59 AM.
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Old 08-19-2017, 12:32 PM   #6567
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

If every bet in an accumulator is -EV, then the overall accumulator is also -EV.

Anyway, good luck.
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Old 08-19-2017, 07:58 PM   #6568
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
If every bet in an accumulator is -EV, then the overall accumulator is also -EV.

Anyway, good luck.
But what if 3 are +EV and 1 is -EV ?!?
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Old 08-20-2017, 02:23 AM   #6569
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

It's not hard to look at historic data and see that over the course of a season the vast majority of these odds on bets will be -EV.
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Old 08-20-2017, 08:12 AM   #6570
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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It's not hard to look at historic data and see that over the course of a season the vast majority of these odds on bets will be -EV.
If that is true, then laying the bets would be an easy road to much riches?
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Old 08-20-2017, 08:29 AM   #6571
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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If that is true, then laying the bets would be an easy road to much riches?
No, because of commission. You can expect to lose less than if you backed them, though, which tells you which side the value is on.

It should however be possible to lay some of them selectively where you think the market has way overvalued the favourite because people love to back favourites as win bets and also as "bankers" in accas without considering value <<cough>>

Then there are popular trading strategies that have a noticeable and measurable effect on the pre-KO market to consider.

I can't overemphasise the effect commission has on profitability. I don't expect any of what I've written to actually be profitable at Betfair's standard commission of 5%, not only because the match odds market is one of the most accurate markets and errors tend to be only faily small (which again can be proved with historic data) but also because the Premium Charge imposes a minimum effective 20% tax on winnings.

If it's possible to get commission down to 3-3.5% things may look a lot better.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 08-20-2017 at 08:48 AM.
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Old 08-20-2017, 12:19 PM   #6572
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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If it's possible to get commission down to 3-3.5% things may look a lot better.
Fwiw, it's at 2% in August on Premier League matches.
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Old 08-21-2017, 10:39 PM   #6573
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

So player A and player B bet $10 per point on the final season points for fantasy football (EPL). The swings can be +/-400 points

Player A is better than player B so gives a 100 point handicap. Both players forget to discuss a buyout.

After Week 1, Player A (performing above expectation over and above his perceived supremacy) is up by 50. In Week 2, he wins by 17 points for a running total of 67 points.

If Player B wants to buy out, how much?

Thanks!
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Old 08-25-2017, 12:37 PM   #6574
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I'm seeing PSG -2.75 this morning, does that mean half of the bet on -2 and half of it on -2.5? So a 2 goal win would push half of the bet, but a 3 goal win needed to scoop it all? I forget how these work. Thx
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Old 08-25-2017, 12:45 PM   #6575
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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I'm seeing PSG -2.75 this morning, does that mean half of the bet on -2 and half of it on -2.5? So a 2 goal win would push half of the bet, but a 3 goal win needed to scoop it all? I forget how these work. Thx
Half -2.5, half -3

The way you explained it would be -2.25
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