^Great insight.
The idea being that, while superior teams will inevitably have more chances (shots), the fact that so little chances are converted (10%) mean they are, in no way, guaranteed to win.
Naturally, things would be different if the coin was 10 (no goal)/90 (goal)- in such a case, better teams would almost always prevail. This point is purely academic since, undoubtedly, soccer is more appropriately described by the previous law (90/10).
I often think about football as a Poisson process but your description is more apt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGmartingale
bigger games you get guys whose finishing rate drops dramatically for example higuain.
I know right? If only he'd done a bit of meditation he'd have a World Cup and Copa America title and maybe a Copa Italia (as he also missed key chances for Napoli).