My thoughts on today's matches
Italy vs Sweden
A match that I find really hard to call. Italy exceeded expectations in their first match against Belgium but I feel like this was the best matchup for them as Belgium looked content to whip in long balls towards Lukaku and feeding off the layoffs. Sweden isn’t really the most cunning team either when it comes to tactics as their whole system is based on Ibra. However, Italy will be forced to participate more actively in the match and I doubt that will suit them a lot. They could replace De Rossi with Motta in order to introduce a better passing option and I read Immobile and De Sciglio could be options for Pelle and Darmian, which doesn’t really change a ton for me. The Italians haven’t won a second group match going back to Euro 2000 and I suspect they could be happy with 4 from two matches here as well. Odds on the under are laughably low at 1,43 and not an option for me. Sweden might take a point too but that would put them in a position where they need to beat Belgium in their last match. They might risk a bit more but not too much and we’ve seen how happy most teams are to ride out a draw and gamble on their final match. Can’t see a playable angle here and I’ll avoid.
Czech Republic vs Croatia
Croatia looked surprisingly good in their first match and I’m quite eager to back them here to lock up qualification. They played too much out wide in their first match I felt and I hope they’ll try to impose their will a bit more in the middle of the pitch today. This is where they should totally dominate the Czech Republic with Modric and Rakitic. The defense looked surprisingly solid, albeit untested, and their pressing in the second half was magnificent and they won a ton of balls to set up fast attacks down the flanks. I’m a bit concerned by the role of Mandzukic, he’s nowhere near as prolific for the national squad as in club football (only 1 goal in qualifications) and despite his obvious qualities in aerial duels and chasing the ball, I’m not sure if he’s the best option for their attack. Just some random thoughts as he will obviously start the match again.
The Czechs got a decent result against Spain and almost (undeservedly) held the champs to a draw but I’m yet to see some of that riskier and more attacking brand of football they usually play. They will need to go for it more today although I must say that I can’t help the feeling that they would be content with a draw as well and possibly play for a win in their last match. The qualification system really does mess with incentives to win I feel. I can’t deny a certain draw danger and if both teams are drawing around the 70th minute mark they could be content to sit it out, similar to the Romania-Switzerland match. I still think odds are worth a play and I’m happy they rebounded from the 1,8x regions from yesterday.
Croatia to beat Czech Republic – 1 Unit@2,06 (Pinnacle)
Spain vs Turkey
Spain was in my opinion the best of the “big” teams in the first match despite getting the breakthrough only in the 87th minute. Iniesta was absolutely majestic and orchestrating all their attacks, they had quite a few good chances and were let down by poor execution by Morata/Aduriz or trying to overpass it (a common problem). I didn’t like Nolito a lot, he showed some poor decision-making and I hope Pedro will replace him tonight. Apart from that I feel like Spain own Turkey in every aspect and I really struggle to make a case for the Turks tonight. They looked really toothless in attack, they got a lot of possession that they didn’t know how to make use of (won’t be a problem tonight), and especially in the second half gave away a lot of balls to Croatia that should have been put away for more goals. They are not a counter-attacking side so I struggle to see what their source of goals is going to be. Turkey might aim for a draw here that leaves them with a shot in their final match although realistically they will have to go for it a bit more. Spain are infamous for struggling to find a breakthrough but they usually do. I do not quite like the handicap enough, given how often Spain are content with playing out the 1-0, but I think they will cover tonight and win this one more comfortably so that might be worth a shot in play. I’ll stick with the safer and more boring option.
Spain to beat Turkey – 1,25 Units@1,51 (Pinnacle)