Austria do have an oh so crisp build-up and your earlier analysis was spot on (and sexy). But don't fall into the trap of over-weighting a mere sample size of 90 mins (vs Hungary) when you can draw on a more valid sample (that of their qualifying process).

I don't want to elaborate too much but, as always, odds are the key here.

'twas indeed their sixth (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain_...l_team_results). The last goal they conceded was in their group encounter vs Italy in Euro 2012 which ended 1-1.

There's def a good case for the Spanish having the best defense.

Does anyone have an opinion on:

Slovakia to beat Russia by more than one goal @$7?

Fair enough but their recent friendlies now look like the right precursor of a dip in form at just the wrong time. Might have been nervousness but they gave up way too much possession to Hungary so you can't even make a case that they would play better on the counter. They just weren't good enough to execute their gameplan. That is worrying. I doubt that they can improve quickly enough to cope with a physically and technically much stronger side like Portugal. But stranger things have happened and Portugal isn't a stranger to dropping points vs lesser sides.

Interesting. My first impressions were:
-it isn't in Slovakia's nature to sit back (and indeed they may be reluctant to do so given their opening loss to Wales) plus
-they do have attacking players that can turn-up on their day and put a big result past Russia.

But your post has cast some doubt on my opinion and I ought to take some time to mull over your points.

To me they looked mostly like a counterattacking side every time I saw them. Also if you look up their recent friendlies, they had pretty much equal possession against Georgia, Ireland and Iceland. All three aren't really attacking teams themselves and you would expect Slovakia to dominate possession there. Russia likes to control the ball (not that they're good at it) and I expect they will be the one initiating play a bit more.

Obviously you're right, both teams could do with a win and this might open up play a bit more. They way the matches have been going so far I doubt that though.

b365 lads at it again. what we reckon? 16-1 first goal method free kick seems deceent value. 2-1 2-0 enlgand? wales will park the bus but England should score at least once

Yeah good 'ol 365. I've been looking at Eng to win at half time at $2.05.

You could be onto a winner with England 2-0.
Guess we can't really go wrong since we're getting free rolled.

France will win +2 goals.
P.S. Hamsik's goal was fantastic, but... how could England not win this weak Russian team???

Wow those numbers are low. Here in the Republic of Georgia they are much higher

DucoGranger: It`s american odds so for France you bet 100 and win 300. Same odds as 4.00

Previews for tomorrow!


England vs Wales

A very interesting encounter with a lot on the line. England will be fired up even more after Bale’s comments that Wales have more passion. Biggest question for them is whether they remain in the 433 shape of the first match or go to a 442 and introduce Vardy. I believe they should stick with the 433 and try to attack the Welsh wingbacks with their pace. I talked before the tournament about how England for me is a “flat-track bully” and I’d expect them to live up to that now. Wales on the other hand will look to threaten through Bale and I believe he should get some decent opportunities, especially running at the slower Cahill. They conceded a bit of a soft goal against Slovakia and overall their defense at the moment isn’t as good as in qualifications. Wales have conceded in the last five and I believe England will score at least one, possibly two tomorrow. The question will be how many men England is willing to commit forward and thus how much space they open up for Welsh counterattacks. I was flirting with the under with the defensive-minded nature of the tournament in mind but I can’t pull the trigger at current odds (1,75). If they move back to 1,85 or even 1,9 I’d definitely take that even if I definitely can see a 2-1 scoreline for England. No value on the match odds for me and I do have a commitment to England winning the group, so already some interest in the game for me.


Ukraine vs Northern Ireland


Ukraine impressed and NIR disappointed in their opening matches but the matchup will be vastly different this time, at least for Ukraine. They will need to attack and score and that’s probably not going to suit their direct game a whole lot. NIR held on pretty well in their first match and even if they do introduce a bit more support for Lafferty, I have no reason to believe that they will change their defensive gameplan. I believe Ukraine will struggle with this kind of situation and another grindfest looks on the cards. Going back to the start of qualifications NIR has gone under 2,5 13/18 times. We have all seen how most teams approach the matches here and I believe 1,66 (Betfair net odds) is good value and I’d be willing to take that above 1,6. NIR not to score looks decent too at 1,97 but Ukraine has a mixed record with respect to conceding against smaller teams. I would also like a bit of insurance against a 1-1 although I think Ukraine will shut them out.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland Under 2,5 – 1 Unit@1,66 (Betfair net odds)


Germany vs Poland

The last match of the day should offer the best entertainment. Germany was efficient as ever against Ukraine but seemed really vulnerable in defense and was lucky not to concede in the first half. Hummels might be back tomorrow but I believe this won’t change a ton since their problems are their fullbacks. Poland should have quite a bit of success roaming down the flanks with Kuba and Grosicki, who should start again. I believe this is a decent matchup for Poland that wil enable them to play their preferred direct style although clearly Germany has more quality. I expect quite an open match, possibly the best of the tournament so far. Up front Germany should in my opinion start with Gomez but Löw might very well opt to give Götze another chance, despite the lack of clear-cut chances in the first matches. I talked in my preview about Germany’s inclination to dip in their second match and would not be surprised if the pattern repeats itself. They split their meetings in qualifications and I expect Poland to score again tomorrow. This is probably the first time I genuinely expect goals in this tournament and odds are really good value in my opinion.

Germany vs Poland Both to score – 0,75 Units@1,87 (Betfair net odds)
Germany vs Poland Over 2,5 – 0,75 Units@1,854 (Pinnacle)

My run good continues, when I was crazy enough to have Wales +500 to win and +275 for a tie on that game.

Wow, I got that Germany game so wrong, I'm shocked. Definitely underestimated how willing teams are to play for a draw, I thought Poland would go more for it. Also, Germany's tactics are absolutely dreadful. Tomorrow's previews probably only tomorrow.

Poland -1 against Ukraine 11/4 seems great. They'll want the GD against a depleted Ukrainian side and Lewa will want to start scoring.

How are both of these not free $ vs Turkey?

Spain -1 (-108)
Spain 1H -.5 (+116)

£50 on free kick first goal method. thanks b365 and thank you joe hart!

My thoughts on today's matches


Italy vs Sweden

A match that I find really hard to call. Italy exceeded expectations in their first match against Belgium but I feel like this was the best matchup for them as Belgium looked content to whip in long balls towards Lukaku and feeding off the layoffs. Sweden isn’t really the most cunning team either when it comes to tactics as their whole system is based on Ibra. However, Italy will be forced to participate more actively in the match and I doubt that will suit them a lot. They could replace De Rossi with Motta in order to introduce a better passing option and I read Immobile and De Sciglio could be options for Pelle and Darmian, which doesn’t really change a ton for me. The Italians haven’t won a second group match going back to Euro 2000 and I suspect they could be happy with 4 from two matches here as well. Odds on the under are laughably low at 1,43 and not an option for me. Sweden might take a point too but that would put them in a position where they need to beat Belgium in their last match. They might risk a bit more but not too much and we’ve seen how happy most teams are to ride out a draw and gamble on their final match. Can’t see a playable angle here and I’ll avoid.


Czech Republic vs Croatia

Croatia looked surprisingly good in their first match and I’m quite eager to back them here to lock up qualification. They played too much out wide in their first match I felt and I hope they’ll try to impose their will a bit more in the middle of the pitch today. This is where they should totally dominate the Czech Republic with Modric and Rakitic. The defense looked surprisingly solid, albeit untested, and their pressing in the second half was magnificent and they won a ton of balls to set up fast attacks down the flanks. I’m a bit concerned by the role of Mandzukic, he’s nowhere near as prolific for the national squad as in club football (only 1 goal in qualifications) and despite his obvious qualities in aerial duels and chasing the ball, I’m not sure if he’s the best option for their attack. Just some random thoughts as he will obviously start the match again.
The Czechs got a decent result against Spain and almost (undeservedly) held the champs to a draw but I’m yet to see some of that riskier and more attacking brand of football they usually play. They will need to go for it more today although I must say that I can’t help the feeling that they would be content with a draw as well and possibly play for a win in their last match. The qualification system really does mess with incentives to win I feel. I can’t deny a certain draw danger and if both teams are drawing around the 70th minute mark they could be content to sit it out, similar to the Romania-Switzerland match. I still think odds are worth a play and I’m happy they rebounded from the 1,8x regions from yesterday.

Croatia to beat Czech Republic – 1 Unit@2,06 (Pinnacle)


Spain vs Turkey

Spain was in my opinion the best of the “big” teams in the first match despite getting the breakthrough only in the 87th minute. Iniesta was absolutely majestic and orchestrating all their attacks, they had quite a few good chances and were let down by poor execution by Morata/Aduriz or trying to overpass it (a common problem). I didn’t like Nolito a lot, he showed some poor decision-making and I hope Pedro will replace him tonight. Apart from that I feel like Spain own Turkey in every aspect and I really struggle to make a case for the Turks tonight. They looked really toothless in attack, they got a lot of possession that they didn’t know how to make use of (won’t be a problem tonight), and especially in the second half gave away a lot of balls to Croatia that should have been put away for more goals. They are not a counter-attacking side so I struggle to see what their source of goals is going to be. Turkey might aim for a draw here that leaves them with a shot in their final match although realistically they will have to go for it a bit more. Spain are infamous for struggling to find a breakthrough but they usually do. I do not quite like the handicap enough, given how often Spain are content with playing out the 1-0, but I think they will cover tonight and win this one more comfortably so that might be worth a shot in play. I’ll stick with the safer and more boring option.


Spain to beat Turkey – 1,25 Units@1,51 (Pinnacle)

I'm all over Italy EV. GL all.

2-1 the tallies

Love the way Italy are playing right now. The back four look solid, as they've done at club level for the last half decade. But the forwards.......... is an Eder or Pelle good enough to test Spain, Germany or the home-side? To Italy's credit they won't have to worry about that 'til the semis or quarters since they're likely to finish atop their group.

How is it that Austria are paying roughly the same odds to beat Portugal as Switzerland are to beat France (circa $5)? Am i missing something?

I'm all in on this Austrian game tomorrow. As in, **** Kelly's criterion all in.
Also took up Austria to win outright at odds of $131! **** me sideways.
Get in quick boys.

In play Peru (+700) vs Colombia 1.5u

This is anyone's game, 20 minutes left

Inzaghi I'd be happy to hear why you rate Austria so much? I'll drop my previews for the matches tmrw in time before kickoff but I really don't see a reason to support them. They were shocking first match, and I really mean shocking. Like couldn't string two passes together shocking. Plus they'll miss Junuzovic the rest of the way. I hope they somehow get a draw tmrw but defending does really not seem like their game and Portugal should enjoy the match tmrw a lot more than versus Iceland.

I don't rate Austria. I think they'll probably lose (or draw) vs Portugal tomorrow and face elimination. But this is a a sports betting thread and odds should be given full consideration.

I follow the Bundesliga when I can and, as you might know, a good deal of this Austrian side play in Germany. In this way i'm somewhat familiar with the Austrian players and their abilities.

They also happen to have a great coach- one the Swiss wish they had.

I don't think Austria are a great side by any stretch, I just happen to think they've got more than 1/131 chance of winning the euros. And, indeed, more than a 20% chance of beating Portugal.

I also think that Portugal, much like fruit, might be over-rated.

Junuzovic was only ruled out for a couple of games at the time I placed my ape**** bets (a few days ago). Has it now transpired that he's out for the tournament? Do thee have sauce?

Got two recommendations here, they might seem like chicken**** bets but I have no problems pulling the trigger at low odds, value is value. The u3,5 cashed 20/21 times with the Czech Republic scoring a penalty in extended injury time to bust the streak. The quali system really gives teams the wrong incentives and I feel the first two games involve three teams which are happy to draw and only Belgium will actually play for a win.


Belgium vs Ireland


I talked about how Belgium have almost the best players in the tournament but their tactics can be really dodgy and they confirmed that in a really bad way. Lots of long balls to Lukaku and shooting from distance seemed the way to go in the first match. I have no idea why they started Fellaini who I do not rate at all and think is a terribly overrated player who cannot do almost anything at a high level besides heading. Wilmots talked about making “2 to 10 changes” and he said he’ll need players between the lines, meaning Fellaini could (and should be dropped). Still, I don’t expect Wilmots to become a class manager overnight and they’ll likely operate in a vaguely similar way again.
Ireland looked pretty good against Ibra and were well on their way to winning the match before dropping too deep and dropping two points. I think they should enjoy this matchup. Technically it’s a non-runner but Ireland will keep up easily in terms of physicality with Belgium. Meaning they will happily defend those long balls to Lukaku. Belgium’s defense gave away an easy goal to Italy and although Ireland isn’t a force up front by any means, they punished Germany in qualifications twice for giving away easy goals. At the same time Belgium failed to beat Wales twice in qualis and Wales is a pretty good proxy for that match. This could easily go the way of Ukraine vs NIR but I’m staying with the safe option of the under.


Belgium vs Ireland Under 3,5 – 1 Unit@ 1,23 (5Dimes)


Iceland vs Hungary


I’m not even gonna pretend I have some amazing insider infos on these teams, I can just give my impressions here. I talked in my recaps about how both teams did not really threaten the opposition goal despite both scoring. This has low-quality written all over it and is screaming draw. Hungary will be happy to take a point and pretty much seal qualification and Iceland wouldn’t be disappointed either with a position to still qualify in their final match. I guess Iceland will leave the ball to Hungary and as decent as Hungary looked on the ball in the first match, they are still a low-quality side and that will show tomorrow. Expect an Italy-Sweden type of match here. Appearantly both times making no changes and I don’t see a reason why they should.


Hungary vs Iceland Under 3,5 – 1 Unit@1,18 (5Dimes)


Portugal vs Austria


Quite a big one for both teams but clearly bigger for Austria. They disappointed big time in their first match against Hungary and were really stupid for conceding that second goal with the current qualification system. They will have to replace to vital players in Junuzovic (injured) and Dragovic (suspended). Prödl will likely start for Dragovic will Junuzovic could be replaced by Schöpf, who is a fringe player at Schalke and not even close in his level to Junuzovic. Ilsanker and Sabitzer might be other options, don’t really know either player but it could mean that Koller shifts Alaba into a more offensive role. Seriously doubt that though since Alaba is a fullback/defensive midfielder and Koller will be happy to take a point here and stay in contention. Austria looked quite shocking in their first match and I’m wondering how they will adapt here. They will likely be happy to leave more possession to Portugal but they are not really a classic counterattacking side and quite frankly couldn’t even handle Hungary controlling the ball. It’s a bit funny writing this as my writeup for them was really positive and I will be happy to eat my words after the match, but they will need to step it up a good two levels from their last match.
Portugal looked fairly ok against Iceland, they conceded a dumb goal 5 mins into the second half and didn’t create a ton of good chances after that. In all honesty though, I’ve seen them play much worse against lesser sides and they just match up really badly against teams that like to get men behind the ball. They might change it up a bit and Sanches and Quaresma seem to be options for the second match. I guess they will be the more proactive side again but I talked about how they often struggle to break down teams early. Austria should be happy to sit back and play for a draw in the beginning, if only to gain some confidence. I was going back and forth on this and I really think Portugal win this but I just don’t feel comfortable with pulling the trigger at these odds. Ronaldo looks not really in form and he is their main goalscoring threat so I’d rather pass.

Livebets are killing me at this tournament. How that last match did not have goals, I cannot fathom. Absurd.

Yea, Portugal deserved to win 3 nil. They hit the post twice, had a number of near misses and their on-target shots were just a fraction within the keeper's reach. They kept possession well and were committed in what little defense they needed to do.

Austria have a result they'll be content with but it was mere good fortune that got them there. They might be able to regroup and get the win they'll need to progress vs Iceland but i'm not counting on it.

Can't see any value in tomorrow's games tbh. Switz could spring a surprise on France but this seems to be well reflected in the odds (about $5.50 on the win).