Betting the in play draw france-rom at -110 already at -140 and 12 minutes left. Without griezman I think this ends on a tie.

Romanians truly have **** for brains. Letting Payett shoot from his sweet spot with 3 minutes left is just ****ing stupid. At least cover his lead foot and force him to shoot w the other foot or pass. France hit their 1 out. Unreal lol.

All in Swizterland

Payet scored with his "wrong" foot. Complaining about that goal is unfair to Romania. That touch Payet did before scoring is just to good and the shot was perfect.

Swiss -108
Wales/Slovakia draw +198
England/Russia over 2 goals -126

An unsuccessful start because Evra couldn't keep his feet to himself. Hoping for more luck today with Switzerland, the under at Wales and possibly England and goals there. Meanwhile, the preview for Group C.


Germany


Their draw


The current world champion is second favorite at 5,8 (Betfair). The draw has handed the Germans a mixture of a fairly easy group stage and a rather tricky knockout phase to make it to the final. Germany should handle the group without much fuss. Ukraine and Northern Ireland are likely going to be overmatched by the German attack. Poland actually beat the Germans on home soil in qualifications and will be a tricky customer again. With Germany’s problems at the back and their tendency to dip in their second group stage match, I would not be surprised at all to see Poland get a result against them. In case Germany really only came second in its group, Spain would await them in the quarters. They will want to make sure they finish first and set themselves up for a soft opponent in the R16. Russia or possibly Austria would already be the worst case coming from groups A/B/F. After that the draw gets significantly more difficult. Possible QF opponents are Belgium or Italy, neither of which the Germans will fancy playing for different reasons. Belgium combines a solid defense with a massively underused potential in attack. Italy is an opponent Germany historically doesn’t fancy playing in tournaments due to their defensive credentials. France most probably comes next. Eliminating the host nation would be a massive task and Germany would likely be a slight underdog in this match. Those two faced off in Brazil two years ago and Germany won by a whisker 1-0 in a very tight match. Spain is a possible opponent in a finals rematch of the Euro 2008. Overall, odds on Germany don’t appeal too much. Given how strong their tournament record is, 2 to reach the Semis probably makes sense. They must not slip up in the group though. Even then, Belgium or Italy won’t be pushovers although 2 would be pretty decent at that stage of course. Given that they will be underdog in at least one match, possibly the final as well, odds correctly adjusted upwards from their initial 4ish regions.


Strengths


Their offensive threats and individual quality are clearly the team’s strongest selling points. Although the German attack stuttered quite a bit in qualifications with 13 goals in eight matches (without Gibraltar), when they are on they can clearly get going. Germany put two past England and four past Italy in friendlies and it seems very much to be an issue of finding the right chemistry between all the moving parts. For the first time in a while, Germany could field a real number 9 in Mario Gomez up front again. However, he might not be first choice versus opponents that will defend really deep like Ukraine and Northern Ireland will probably do. Gomez likes to play with a bit more room to manoeuvre and isn’t the most technically gifted. Thomas Müller could get the nod and there is little to say about his goal-scoring record at tournaments besides nod and approve. Another option would be to play a strikerless system, essentially fielding Götze and Özil in two number 10 roles. However, I feel Löw will be cautious with that as Götze has struggled mightily at his club and Germany will probably call upon more in-form players to get goals for them.
Their midfield and defense has plenty of quality as well, Toni Kroos became the first German to win the Champions League with two different clubs and is the pivotal player in midfield. Khedira and Özil are locks to start as well. Defensively they boast arguably the best keeper in the world and a top class central defense in Boateng and Hummels. Hummels will be out for the start of the tournament though and with Rüdiger freshly out of the tournament due to a torn ACL, Löw faces problems there.


Weaknesses


Which already brings me to their weaknesses, of which Germany has more than you would think. Central defense will be a problem until Hummels returns. Against the offensively impressive Poles, Germany will have its hands full to keep their defensive shape. Full backs have been a problem at the World Cup too and Lahm’s retirement has aggravated that. Hector is a lock to start on the left and he is a solid, if unimpressive, solution. Höwedes could start on the right but he is a central defender at heart and could be recalled to that position after Rüdiger’s injury. That would leave Bayern Munich’s newcomer Joshua Kimmich as a starter. A defensive midfielder at heart, Guardiola needed to start him for a big part of 2016 in central defense, where he impressed. He’s good at anticipating and technically gifted. I have some doubts though about whether he really can give Germany the width it needs to stretch teams that try to park the bus. Also, being actually a midfielder, he can be prone to lapses. His polyvalent qualities could still prompt Löw to start him.
A second point that warrants attention is how out of sync the Germans have looked since their World Cup win. Although the starting 11 is mostly clear, Löw seems unsure which system to play and has tinkered a lot with his formations. Germany can start 433, 4231 or three at the back but they don’t seem entirely comfortable in either of them. In qualifications they only on 5/8 against opponents not named Gibraltar and barely finished first. Friendlies haven’t been their friend either. They let a two goal lead slip against England and lost uncharacteristically against Slovakia, conceding three goals. As seen in the 4-1 win over Italy, Germany can be almost unstoppable when they are on but consistency has been missing. Defensively they get out of shape too often and their offense stalls more than it should with that much firepower at hand. An additional question mark is the integration of Schweinsteiger, if happening at all. He is Löw’s inofficial assistant coach but has been injured for most of last season and is replaceable in terms of playing quality, if not influence. Whether, and how much, he features remains unclear.


The group stage


Germany opens against Ukraine and despite several question marks, I like Germany’s opening odds. They have been historically strong in openers and have won all of them dating back to 2004. With their problems in mind, I much like 2,6 on the to win and the match to go over at the same time (B365). Better odds might become available by combining correct score odds. Their second match has been historically weak and they won only one in their last four tournaments. Poland is likely the strongest opponent and I would be much surprised if that match did not feature goals. Over 2,5 looks like a good option there and will likely come in if their first match goes over as well. Northern Ireland is the group’s underdog. Germany failed to beat Ireland twice in qualifications and it would be fool’s errand to think they are going to walk this. I still expect a win but the opening two matches will give us a better idea of what to expect from Germany.


The outlook


Germany has been historically one of the best, if not the best, tournament side. They have an amazing capability of stepping up when they need to and only a brave and foolish man would back them not to make the quarterfinal at least. By then they might by rolling already and even if not, Germany look fully capable of stepping it up another level then again. Löw will need to find the right tactics. The team trusts him and Germany brings the confidence of a world title, something that should not be underestimated in knockout matches. Despite all problems, I expect Germany to make the Semis. By then, it will probably be clear how good their level is and if they really can go all the way again.


Picks


Germany to beat Ukraine and Over 2,5 – 1 Unit@2,5 (Bet365)


Poland


The team


Poland has a very solid team based on an impressive offense that can keep up with the best of them. Lewandowski and Milik are no doubt the stars of the team. Poland scored a qualification-high 33 goals. Even if you exclude the goalfests against Gibraltar they got more than two per match (18 in 8 matches). The only time they failed to score recently was in their final friendly, when they missed some good chances to draw Lithuania 0-0 (playing without Lewandowski). Their system is based on breaking quickly and feeding their goal machines in attack. Both Lewandowski and Milik can create situations although the former is clearly more competent at holding up the ball while Milik is more of a dribbler. While they are Poland’s sharpest weapons, Blaszczykowski and Grosicki are capable of getting the odd goal themselves. The downside of that attacking system is that Poland leaves spaces for their opponent to exploit. Ten goals conceded are a good indicator of that. The upside is that most teams are not able to exploit those spaces and Poland faces two of those in their group.


The group stage


Poland opens against Northern Ireland and I fully expect them to get all three points there. Northern Ireland should be definitely outmatched by the impressive Polish attacking power and 1,7 is one of the best bets of matchday one in my opinion. Still, there is nothing wrong with holding out for an additional ten ticks as I don’t expect Poland to immediately overrun the outsider. Over the course of the match they should be able to create separation and run out a comfortable winner. Next up is Germany. They lost away but won at home and I talked in my Germany preview about how susceptible the German defense looks. Don’t be surprised if Poland picks up points here too. AT least they should give Germany a good run for its money. Last match is against Ukraine and it could be a shootout for qualification. I do think Poland is quite a bit stronger and expect them to come second.


The outlook


Poland should be one of the most fun teams to watch amongst a sea of defensive bus-parking sides. They have a manageable group and will likely qualify. Personally I like the dual forecast of Germany and Poland to get the two top spots in the group for 2,25 (Ladbrokes). If they come second, Poland faces either Switzerland or Romania in the next round. Both are not frightening prospects and the Poles will relish their chances. Coming third would see them take on France or England and I would give them a fighting chance against the second. Overall, I like the team’s offensive approach and quality to back it up. Thus, I’m happily buying 3 on Poland to make the QF (Ladbrokes). In the most probable case of a second-place finish, I give them the nod over whoever finishes behind France in Group A.
Picks

Poland to beat Northern Ireland – 1 Unit@1,8 in play as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11
Poland to reach the QF – 1 Unit@3 (Ladbrokes)


Ukraine


Ukraine is a thoroughly unimpressive side with two impressive wingers. Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka are the stars of the team and will have to shoulder the burden of getting Ukraine somehow into the next round. Both are talented dribblers and responsible for the lion’s share of Ukraine’s offensive output (8/17 qualification goals including playoffs). I keep repeating myself but Ukraine is another uncreative side, having managed barely above one goal per match in qualifications (Luxemburg excluded). They won all four friendlies since and dropped seven goals in their last two against two supposedly ultra-defensive sides in Albania and Romania (4 by their star duo). Although I don’t rate friendly results too high, Ukraine will definitely draw confidence from that and Germany will have to look out in the opening fixture. Ukraine is solid in defense but can be undone by better teams. Spain won both qualifiers 1-0 with goals in the opening third of the match. Slovakia, who came second in that group, did the same in one match and drew the other 0-0.
Getting a result versus Germany would be useful but much will depend on how effectively Ukraine can set up its two stars in its second match against Northern Ireland. The midfield will need to build up play better and more dynamic than during qualifications. It’s hard to gauge whether their good friendly results were a fluke or the sign of something more to come. Goals in their last match against Poland look likely, given that probably both teams will still have all to play for and go for it. In case of a second-place finish, Ukraine can’t be counted out to make a surprise appearance in the QF. Much would have to go right for them for that to happen. I can’t see them beating anyone outside of Northern Ireland. Judging by how good Poland and Germany are in attack, in my opinion they will fail to qualify for the next round.



Northern Ireland



One more outsider and newcomer. Unlike a lot of the others, Northern Ireland actually didn’t “park” its way to the tournament but got some decent results on its way to winning the group. The lone defeat they suffered was to Romania away. Northern Ireland actually scored in all matches besides the two against Romania. Equally impressive are their friendly results after that where they went unbeaten in four, drawing against Wales and Slovakia. The team has no real stars although it depends heavily on Kyle Lafferty (Norwich City) who got seven goals in qualifications. Northern Ireland operates mostly with long balls but does not play quite as deep as some other minnows at the tournament. This way they might be able to surprise and frustrate some of their group opponents. Both Poland and Germany have leakier defences than they would like and Northern Ireland might nick one against those two. They were able to break down defensive teams during their qualifications campaign (Hungary, Greece), so I reckon the prospect of facing Ukraine will not intimidate Northern Ireland too much. I can see them picking up a point or two, maybe even a surprise win against Ukraine. Overall, it will not be enough to progress as Germany and Poland are too good in attack and will be able to handle the threat of Lafferty. No point in backing something either way since I don’t see the gap between the third and fourth team quite as big as in some other groups.

Good stuff, the first winner just came in with Switzerland winning 1-0. Should have sealed it with a second much earlier but were lucky in the end when Albania missed a sitter. Group D preview below and I'll post the last two tomorrow.

Spain


The draw


Third favorite at 6,2 (Betfair). Spain was handed a very nice draw in my opinion. They have the strongest group on paper but also the one that is likely to feature the most goals. All their opponents are stronger in attack than defense and will play slightly more open than the likes of Ireland or Wales. If things go according to plan, Spain gets the third-placed team out of the English, Belgian or Portuguese group. Austria or Sweden are probably the worst possible cases, neither of which should frighten La Roja. After that Spain plays another soft opponent in the second-placed teams from the French and German groups. Only in the Semis they could face England, Portugal or Italy. Spain should be favorite against all of those. No surprise that odds came in quite a bit already and with Spain looking stronger than at the last World Cup, a run to the final, and a possible hattrick, is certainly possible for them.


The team


Spain looks a bit a different team compared to two years ago. Xavi, Xabi Alonso and Villa are gone. Iniesta still features and is the pivotal player from the old guard. Most of the starting 11 looks set but up front Del Bosque is still experimenting with his options. Morata seems the intuitive choice but Aduriz has had an excellent season at Bilbao and started in recent friendlies too. He can go for width with Nolito or Pedro on the left or play a narrower formation with a striker and Silva. Even the false 9 seems an option. Spain’s strategy will be the same as usual, monopolize the ball and play patient possession football. They have a bit more firepower in attack but still can get caught up in not being clinical enough. Only three times they scored more than one goal in qualification when the opponent was not Luxemburg. Friendlies have been a mixed bag as well, they beat England and dropped six on Korea, but went goalless against Romania and embarrassingly lost to Georgia 0-1 in their final test. Still, their defense is very good and it will be hard to score on them, especially considering their opponents are not the most clinical teams either. In goal De Gea should start but Del Bosque still seems to be considering the experience of Casillas. In my opinion this is a no-brainer in favour of the former but don’t be surprised if Bosque goes with the veteran.


The group stage


Spain opens versus Czech Republic which is the group’s weakest team the consensus goes. I am not entirely sure about that but it is the most adventurous. Spain should not have too many issues finding the back of the net and getting a fairly straightforward three points. I would like to hold out there until the -1 handicap hits 2,0 and then pounce on that. Turkey is the second opponent and should not pose too many problems either. Odds are decent and I have no issues with taking the 2 that is offered on the handicap now. Spain should have six points in the bag when facing Croatia for the last match but at the very least be leading the group. Too early to call that match now but I definitely expect them to take seven points at least.


The outlook


A strong squad, a favourable draw, what could possibly go wrong for the defending champion? I think they learned their lesson from the last World Cup and I expect a much better showing this time around. Personally, I put my money where my mouth is a bit earlier and got them to make the SF at 2,4 at Betfair. Still 2,14 to be had and I honestly think they should be favoured to make it so I still think those odds are value. If Spain can start scoring a bit easier, another deep run looks almost inevitable.


Picks


Spain to win Group D – 1 Unit@1,57 (Bet365)
Spain to reach the SF – 1 Unit@2,14 (Betfair)
Spain -1 AHC vs Czech Republic – 1 Unit@2,0 in play aslong as the score is 0-0 and 11v11


Croatia



The team


Croatia has been tipped as dark horse at the last tournament – and failed to deliver. Individual quality might even be better this time but the team seems to be lacking direction in terms of tactics and management. Ante Cacic replaced Niko Kovac as manager late into the qualifying campaign. At the age of 62 he is still sorely lacking experience at the big stage. His biggest assignment was a brief stint at Dinamo Zagreb in 2011 and he has coached almost exclusively in Croatia. Needless to say that his appointment came as a big surprise. It seems questionable whether he has the tactical aptitude to prepare the team for a pretty tough group from the Croatians’ point of view. A resume of six wins and one draw after taking over looks impressive at first. Mind you that the strongest opponent Croatia defeated was Russia in a friendly. There is little to read into their final preparations as well. Croatia tested against Moldova and San Marino which seem rather odd choices in what should be one of the more offensive groups of the tournament.
Tactically the Croatians seem unsettled as well. Although they have talent aplenty in midfield in Rakitic, Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic, Cacic is still trying to put the pieces together. Croatia could go 4141, 4231 or three at the back. Despite having plenty of talent in midfield and a capable striker in Mandzukic, Croatia can sometimes play surprisingly uninspired and tame football. They have all the tools to impose themselves on opponents with possession football but can be oddly uncreative. Their loss to Mexico in the final group stage match in Brazil was a perfect example of that. Defensively Croatia hold up pretty well in general despite that being their weak point in terms of player quality. They conceded only five goals in qualifications and drew twice with Italy.


The group stage


The first match against Turkey will obviously be big for both teams in what promises to beat the most open group of the tournament. Croatia goes in as the deserved favorite. Some extra tension is added by the fact that Turkey famously eliminated Croatia in 2008 in the most dramatic of ways on penalties. Czech Republic is up next and Croatia should be well suited to the Czechs open approach and will definitely need to win this one to stand any chance of qualification. Spain awaits last and Croatia tends to hold its ground reasonably well against the big boys. Since La Roja might already have locked up its spot in the next round by then and be resting some players, taking a vital point could very well be on the cards.


The outlook


Croatia is possibly the most enigmatic team in the tournament. Judging by it potential, the team should easily play the quarter-finals. The reality might even end up being coming last in a pretty harsh group. Either way, the draw did not treat the teams qualifying from this group very fairly. Coming second or third, a big fish likely awaits them in what should be France, England or Belgium/Italy. Croatia can be a headache for either of these teams but it will need to get its act together fast. Unlike for a lot of other teams, Group D feels more like a “normal” Euro group and slipping up in the first match already puts the teams with their backs to the wall in the second match. If Cacic can get his tactics right and Croatia plays courageous and dominant football, I see no reason why they should not be able to qualify out of the group. If not, Croatia could be in for a disappointment again. Definitely too many question marks here and too close to call.
Turkey


The team


Turkey is another interesting and unpredictable team in this group. The Turks were already well and truly on their way out of qualification after getting one point in their opening three matches. They closed out with winning five out of seven to sensationally leave the Netherlands behind them. Since, Turkey has picked up some decent friendly results in beating Sweden, Austria and narrowly losing to England. Much depends on how well their stars Calhanoglu and Turan can orchestrate their attack. Turkey plays a possession-based but cautious brand of football. They often have more men behind the ball than in front of it and build up play slowly towards Calhanoglu and Turan. Defensively Turkey tends to be a bit less compact than Croatia although they conceded two only once since their poor start in qualifications (1-2 vs England). Their solid build-up play means they rarely lose their shape and opponents will need to press high to not get lulled into playing according to the Turks’ rhythm. In attack Yilmaz is the most reliable source of goals and plays a classic no.9 role.


The outlook


I can pretty much copy what here what I said about Croatia. As for Croatia, Turkey has no time to lose and immediately needs a result in their opener. Playing Spain after that, and Turkey not matching up well in this one with their lack of counter-attacking play, Turkey will have more to lose and probably start extra-cautious against Croatia. The Czechs are last and the teams split their qualifying matches, each losing at home. In case of qualifying out of the group I can see Turkey irking their opponent a bit but for me they lack Croatia’s individual class to overcome some of the better teams. Same verdict: too close to call

Czech Republic


The team


The Czechs have a bit habit of showing up for Euros and go missing for World Cups. The same goes for this year and their risky and offensive brand of football could make them one of the most entertaining teams to watch. The Czech Republic won its qualification group, going Over 2,5 in 8/10 matches with the other two having two goals in them. It’s been a similar story since with 5/7 friendlies going over the line. The team plays a risky counter-attacking approach, trying to force the ball into central midfield and win it back there to launch a fast attack themselves. This sounds like suicide in a group with two strong central midfields as Spain and Croatia possess and it might very well be. For what they lack in compactness the Czechs try to make up with an aggressive approach in winning the ball. In attack they wide and direct and force play on the flanks. Their goal-heavy results indicate that this works well in attack but has some obvious shortcomings in defense. Hence the highly inconsistent results in their friendly matches. The team lacks some big names it had a few years ago, the two household names are Cech and Rosicky at the tender ages of 34 and 35. In a strong group this could cost them.


The outlook


I’m excited about the Czech Republic, if only they promise to be one of the few teams that will genuinely try to attack. It looks though as this is the wrong group to do it in and Spain should feast on their incompact defense and unusual pressing approach. Croatia looks well-equipped to do the same to a lesser degree. The Czechs might have a bit more joy here with their counter attacks against the qualitatively weaker Croatian defense. Turkey looks most in their range but it has to be noted that their win over Turkey dates back to 2014 and the Turks have improved since then. In this open group the Czechs might well surprise but I think they lack too much quality and do not play the right style to go through to the next round. Playing the goals might be the way to go and I would fancy to go two out of three matches to go over 2,5.

Small parlay today England + Colombia. 3u to win about 5.3u Gluck every1

England choke job. Was my last leg of a 8 team par...should have hedged that game. **** me

Aand Group E. Dropping F tomorrow and gonna take a look at matchday 2 as well.

Belgium


The draw


An incredible pool of talented players means that Belgium is more probable to win the whole thing than traditional powerhouses like Italy or Portugal at 13 (Betfair). In yet another probably low-scoring group, Belgium will have to be on its toes. Each opponent has a different profile but all can prove to be a potential roadbump. Winning the group would match them with the second-placed team from Spain’s group and likely mean they would have to face Germany and France further down the road. Coming second is not much more appealing and means taking on Portugal and England if both hold on to their favourite status. Even worse would be coming third to play Spain or France in the next round. Either way you look at it, the draw has not been nice to Belgium and it is hard to make a case for any play on them. If anything, laying the 13 looks like a solid investment given the amount of quality they need to go through to win the tournament.


Their strengths


The sheer amount of talent is mind-boggling and guaranteed no team will happily take on Belgium. Courtois, Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku are only the biggest stars. Belgium fields a starting 11 where pretty much all players are familiar names for any semi-regular follower of football. Most impressive is their attack, which features Benteke, Origi and Carrasco besides the already named ones. That is three players playing at teams that were in European cup finals this year coming off the bench! Even without injured Kompany their defense is only little less impressive with Vermaelen and Aldeweireld in the center. No surprise that Belgium scored a solid 14 goals in eight matches when not playing Andorra to easily qualify for the group. They did fail to score twice against Wales though and that brings me directly to…


Their weaknesses


Despite the crazy amount of talent at its disposal, Belgium can seem oddly uninspiring at times. The team could and should easily be playing at the same level as the top three favourites but seems to rely too often on the individual quality of its stars. Belgium does get a fair amount of goals and indeed has been shut out only by Wales since its World Cup exit. It is more reflected in its style of play which often relies on infuriatingly slow build-up and crosses or long balls to its athletically gifted central forwards. The result is often a much slower pace and less attractive and attacking football than Belgium is capable of on paper.
Another weakness is their leaking defense. Belgium hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last seven matches and losing Kompany certainly doesn’t help them. Their full backs are actually central defenders and that hurts them offensively as well as defensively. They compensate a lot over pure quality but one can’t help but feel that there is quite a bit potential that goes unused.


The group stage


As mentioned, the group looks pretty difficult on paper. Italy is nominally the strongest opponent and the opening match. Belgium beat them in a friendly last fall and will feel good about its chances against a rather unimpressive Italian side. Still, I can’t help but feel that both teams will opt for a cautious approach with two matches against weaker teams still in hand. The under, although already pretty low at 1,53 (Pinnacle), looks a winner to me. The pesky Irish are next and will try to make life as hard as possible for Belgium. Quality should prevail there in what will probably not be a nice match to watch. Ibrahimovic and his more human Swedish teammates are the last opponents. 1,87 looks a bit on the high side to me and I think this is already worth a play. This could be a draw-heavy group and I do think Belgium will still need points in the last match, as will Sweden. A bit more open approach by the Swedes should suit Belgium more than the first two matches.


The outlook


This is a tough one to call and the only group I avoided on outright bets. Belgium is almost certain to qualify but it could finish anywhere from 1 to 3. They have the best team in the group by quite a distance and should, but are not guaranteed, to finish first. The amount of quality is enviable and they are probably the only team of the group that could refuse to let Ibrahimovic play for them. Underachieving and being eliminated in the R16 looks like their floor. Upsetting an out-of-sync Germany and narrowly falling to France in the Semis is a realistic ceiling. I can see anything between those two happening.


Italy


The draw


The former world champion has seen better days and you can be forgiven to think that odds of 20 (Betfair) on Italy to win it are crazy high. However, I outlined in my preview on Belgium how difficult the draw for teams from this group is and Italy looks ill-equipped to take out several teams of higher quality. They didn’t beat Croatia in two tries in qualifications and have not beaten a household name going back to 2014 in their first post-World Cup friendly 2-0 versus the Netherlands. Which by now looks much less impressive as we all know. Thus I can’t really see Italy upsetting the odds although no team will be happy to see them on the scoresheet for the knockout stages.


The team


Not really being a connoisseur of the Serie A, I am vaguely familiar with the Italian players but not really impressed to say the least. Their back three is, or should be, their strong side. Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini and Buffon all play at Juventus. Build-up play is slow and patient but lacks incisiveness and the creativity of Andrea Pirlo. Florenzi and Motta are solid but nearly as creative or spectacular as the veteran. In attack Italy has some decently talented players in Insigne and Shaarawy but nothing that would make opponents shiver. In my opinion the team lacks a proper striker as neither Zaza nor Eder or Immobile impresses me and they will have their work cut out even against Ireland.
It isn’t all that bad and Italy in fact failed to score only once since the last World Cup (0-1 to Portugal). They did lose 4-1 to Germany and 3-1 to Belgium though and conceded seven goals in qualifications. That is not too little in a group with Azerbaijan and Malta. Italy still sort of plays their old rather defensive and patient approach but looks a shadow of its former self in doing so. Neither in attack nor in defense quality is as high as in its heydays. There seem to be some open questions regarding the starting 11 as well, as Conte has been experimenting a lot in the friendlies.


The outlook


I struggle a bit to make sense of this Italian team. They do not impress me at all but I certainly can see them getting something out of their first match versus Belgium. They should be able to control Ibrahimovic but might very well not be. Ireland could frustrate them or Italy runs out a rather comfortable two goal win. Certainly no team likes to play Italy in a knockout stage match but no one will be too afraid either. Croatia would probably relish its chances in this familiar tie. In a group with Ireland I cannot see them not qualifying but after that there are few teams that I would put Italy comfortably ahead of. R16 or QF is as much as I can see them do and odds pretty much reflect that.


Sweden



The team


I was thinking whether I should actually name this The Team or just write Ibrahimovic and proceed with the outlook. No team is as dependent on one player but few even have some of his quality. He scored 11 of their 19 goals including relegation. He is involved in pretty much all their chances and play is focused entirely on him. That aside, Sweden is as average as they come in terms of style of play. Slow and patient build-up, trying to be compact at the back…you get the image. In terms of defending that hasn’t always worked too well, they got squashed 4-1 by Austria and lost 2-1 to Turkey in a friendly, the two nominally strongest opponents they faced. How well they fare therefore depends on how much their opponents are able to negate balls to and from Ibrahimovic and exploit the spaces he leaves when defending.


The outlook


I can keep this short. Sweden needs to win its first match against Ireland to stand any chance of progressing in this group. I can’t see them beating Belgium and they will not fancy having to go for it against Italy if they are desperate for points. I think Sweden to beat Ireland presents a bit of value – the Irish haven’t faced quite such a special player and are usually much weaker away from home. I have my doubts whether it will be enough for qualification but if it is, I cannot see them progressing one further round. Four matches max for The Legend.


Ireland


Everyone likes to see the Irish at a tournament. Maybe except for the teams that actually have to play them and have the unenviable task of breaking down their defense. They surprisingly came through a tough group thanks to sensationally picking up four points against Germany and consequently eliminated Bosnia. Ireland plays as we know and love them. Lots of passion and effort but also lots of long balls, technically very limited and most of the time defending deep. They much depend on their home advantage and picked up almost all necessary points there. The last six wins Ireland away scored were: Gibraltar, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Faröer, Estonia and Andorra. Their limited brand of football can only take them so far and participation is a success in itself. Ireland might be able to get a draw or even two but I would not count on it. Last Euro they were hopelessly outmatched and lost all matches in a very hard group with Spain, Italy and Croatia. I don’t think much will change this time and I backed them to come bottom of the group at 2,2 (Bet365). I also like the +0 handicap on Sweden to beat them in the opener at 1,66. That shouldn’t be higher than 1,55 in my opinion.


Picks


Ireland to finish bottom – 1 Unit@2,2 (Bet365)
Sweden +0 vs Ireland – 1 Unit@1,68 (Pinnacle)

Really nice previews icrus!
Looking forward to reading the rest of them.

took 1-1 at 11/2 in play. some lads they b365 are hopefully run the bet a few more times this tourney. also a shout out to England for choking. cheers boys

Group F below. I saw I forgot to mention my Poland/Germany dual forecast for Group C. Got it at 2,25, Ladbrokes still had 2,1 when I wrote it up. Shame.


Portugal


The draw


The final group head is also the longest in the outright market at 18,5 (Betfair). That seems a bit odd given the fact that the group is by far the softest and features two “small” nations. The knockout round is where the juicy fruits are hanging for Portugal and coming first or second probably doesn’t make a ton of difference in terms of difficulty. If they win their group they will have to take on the second-placed team froup group E and go possibly through England and Spain in the top half of the draw. In the bottom half they get a bit of a break with an easier team from England’s group but have a high probability of playing Germany and France. And we aren’t even talking about the final yet! Portugal has been a tricky customer for the most part of their tournament appearances but that is a lot (too much) to ask of them.


The team


After a quite embarrassing opening loss to Albania, Portugal went seven straight wins to secure safe passage to the tournament. They are well-known for being a physically strong, talented, counter-attacking side. Little has changed in that respect. In attack Ronaldo is still the go-to-guy. Miguel Veloso doesn’t feature this time around but Joao Moutinho is now the brain in midfield. Portugal can field a ton of physically strong players, William Carvalho, Perreira and teenage star Renato Sanches to name only a few in midfield. Defensively they are reliably compact and as athletic as ever, even when accounting for Ronaldo’s negligible contribution on that end. Only once has Portugal conceded two goals in a match since the last World Cup, in a 3-2 win over Armenia. Their offense is much better suited to counter-attacking football, so Portugal can often struggle to break down an opponent when they have to force play. They led only once at halftime during their eight qualification matches and won two with goals deep in injury time. Even without those goals they would have qualified but the setup will be the same in their group. Thus it might not be quite the cakewalk you would initially expect.


The group stage


Portugal opens against the tournament sensation Iceland. This is without a doubt going to be an interesting match. Looking at Iceland’s strong dip in form and the added pressure of their first tournament appearance, I cannot help but think that Portugal is in for a quite straightforward win in here. I picked up on Portugal’s tendency to finish matches stronger than they started them due to their athletic capabilities. No doubt they will hold the upper hand in that regard in this fixture too and we can use that (I hope) nicely to our advantage. I would like to see 1,75 before going full steam ahead on Portugal. Goals should be an option here too. Iceland has been leaking goals and I will discuss that further down in their preview. Austria is next and the talented Austrians will pose a much bigger challenge I feel. However, they should also give Portugal some space to operate on the counter. This match could go either way and odds look spot on. Hungary is the weakest team of the group but not necessarily much easier as they will be content to sit back and defend for their lives. Again, I expect fitness and quality to prevail and Portugal should get the three points there as well.


The outlook


Portugal is a rare case. I think they will actually thrive more when they enter the knockout stages and can finally play on the counter as they prefer to. They have enough talent and the right tactics to frustrate a lot of other teams. Getting there might be a bit of a pain, despite the ridiculously easy group. A QF appearance looks pretty achievable, a SF might be on too. Their hard draw and their style of play guarantees some tough and tight matches. Portugal might not go all the way but they will make their opponents miserable I feel.


Picks


Portugal to beat Iceland 1 Unit @1,75 – in play as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11


Iceland


The team


Out of all outsiders this is probably the one that is most exciting, unusual and that most people want to see. Iceland sensationally booked qualification in a really tough group with the Czech Republic, Turkey and the Netherlands. And they truly deserved it too by finishing in style and avoiding the playoffs. On their way to the tournament Iceland scored some sensational results, beating the Dutch twice and Turkey and the Czechs once. They were equally impressive at both ends, scoring 17 and conceding only six. Although defense comes first, Iceland is not the stereotypical counterpunching side that defends deep. They like to play rather high up the pitch when in possession and operate with long balls and vertical passes to the flanks. Set pieces are a particular strength of Iceland. They managed to score half their goals in qualification from set pieces.
Their liabilities are their tactical simplicity, a lack of experience and a pretty significant dip in form. Portugal and Austria will hardly be fooled by Iceland’s tactics and should come prepared with the Nordics’ strong results in mind. The second point is pretty self-explanatory. Iceland picked up its two losses away from home and one can expect them to be somewhat impressed by the big stage they are playing on for the first time. Last but not least, Iceland won three but lost six of its friendlies since locking up its place in France. They also conceded at least two in each of their losses and that downtrend is coming at the wrong time for them.


The group stage


Iceland opens against Portugal and I outlined my thoughts above why Portugal should overpower them. I mentioned their defensive woes recently and I will opt for the over at slightly higher odds. There’s a good chance they will be desperate for points in their second match against Hungary and that makes it very hard to call. I feel odds look a bit on the high side for Iceland but I would like to see their level of play first to make a decision. They play Austria last and I would be surprised if that match did not feature goals. With the tricky draw situation in this group though, it would be foolish to call anything early.


The outlook


Iceland will look to pick up three or maybe four points and somehow secure themselves another match. That would be the cherry on the pie for their last two years’ work. Either way, participation is already a massive success for them. Their unorthodox style of play should make for more entertainment than a lot of other teams and win them at least some fans if not points.


Picks


Portugal vs Iceland Over 2 goals – 1 Unit@2,0 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11


Austria


The team


Austria is probably THE dark horse and not-so-insider tip for the tournament. They boast a very well-attuned starting 11 and plenty of talent that could take them quite far. Qualification has been nothing short of impressive with 28 out of 30 possible points. A lot of their squad plays in the German Bundesliga, Fuchs (Leicester) and Arnautovic (Stoke) in the Premier League. On top they have one of the world’s most talented polyvalent players in David Alaba, who is already a legitimate star at only 23. In qualifications Austria was highly impressive defensively with their well-coordinated pressing. That is thanks to the small rotation they use but also a result of a lot of players playing in Germany where a strong pressing system is vital to a lot of teams counterattacks. Austria has that and good build-up play as well. Alaba, Baumgartlinger and Junuzovic in midfield are all players that are capable of excelling different roles and complement each other very well. In attack Harnik and Arnautovic have somewhat different profiles. Harnik is more a center forward that cuts inside the box to find the goal, Arnautovic likes to take a dribble and set up a pass or shoot from range after that. Janko balances them extremely well and is a vital component to their offensive setup.
As good as Austria’s form was in qualifications, they seem to have dipped at just the wrong time. They lost three of their last five friendlies (beating minnows Albania and Malta) and conceded in all of them. In addition, their starting lineup is very competitive but they have almost nothing to add off the bench. That isn’t necessarily a huge problem at a tournament but players will need to stay fit.


The group stage

I can keep this short. Austria is a clear favourite against Hungary and of course has to pick up full points to keep their chances. Similar to Poland-Northern Ireland, I think odds are decent and I will only wait a bit to get involved at 1,8. I covered their match against Portugal. With full points in the bank, Austria will play with confidence and could make things very interesting. If they drop points in the opener, it will force them to go for it more and that will suit Portugal’s play on the counter. The last match against Iceland is, like a mentioned, a crapshoot and too early to call.


The outlook


I much like this Austrian side. They have a very cohesive and fine-tuned team that works together well and is full of confidence after a sensational qualifying campaign. Marcel Koller is a much underrated manager that in my opinion deserves a chance at a upper midlevel club. Their draw has been kind to them and Austria should aim for second place to play the runner-up of Group A not E. All in all, I fancy their chances to live up to the hype and I’ve taken them to reach the QF at 2,63 (Bet365).


Picks


Austria to reach the QF – 1 Unit@2,625 (Bet365)
Austria/Portugal Dual Forecast - 1 Unit@2 (Ladbrokes)
Austria to beat Hungary – 1 Unit@1,8 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11


Hungary


The final team of a long preview is one I know very little about so I am content to keep this short. Hungary won a measly two out of eight qualifiers (excluding vs Faröer) in a really poor group that Northern Ireland topped. Hats off to them eliminating Norway in two matches but I doubt they will be able to convince people why this whole tournament was stretched to 24 teams in the first place. Hungary plays a classic defensive brand of football without any notable stars. Austria and Portugal will be too strong for them barring a major surprise. They might give Iceland a good run and a win there wouldn’t make headlines. But I very much doubt they can qualify even in such a weak group. Their offense is missing in action and their defense should concede quite a few to put the R16 out of reach.

Wrote up a little recap as well. I can already say that I like France on the handicap for next round and Switzerland not to lose to Romania. Germany looks like a strong over as well, possibly in a both to score combo.




Time for a little recap on the matches played. So far we’ve seen five wins by a single goal, a draw and a win by two goals difference with the second goal coming in stoppage time. Sure enough it’s been a rather tight opening few matches and pretty much what I expected, although maybe not precisely in the right matches. Some should have had a few goals more, some less.

France vs Romania 2-1

Romania started well in this one and could have gone up after a few mins from a corner. After that France took over somewhat but for my taste they were being too passive and too content to win the ball back in their own half. They improved a bit in the second half and deservedly went one up although Romania had a couple of decent half-chances before the goal. A clumsy challenge by Evra brought Romania back into the match (and sank my bet). When it looked like a draw was on the cards, a wonderful strike by Payet, who was the best man on the pitch, sealed it for France. Not entirely undeserved but somewhat lucky win. Would like to see France (and Pogba) impose themselves much more on the game and they should get a chance to do so against Albania. Romania played well but that matchup suited them, they will need to be more proactive vs Switzerland. They didn’t really look threatening and I think they’ll have a tough time to get a meaningful result next match.

Albania vs Switzerland 0-1

An early goal from a corner meant Switzerland could play this one pretty relaxed and Albania’s gameplan was screwed from the very beginning. I think Albania had one really decent chance first half but when Cana was sent off, it was pretty much game over. Switzerland controlled the game in the second half and should have put at least one, possibly two past Albania, whose keeper had an excellent match. Still, Albania had one massive chance to equalize but got denied by an excellent Sommer save. A game that should have seen at least one more goal. A deserved, if in the end lucky, Switzerland win. Shaqiri had a decent match for them and I liked Embolo coming off the bench. Albania look unsurprisingly not good enough for that stage and I don’t really understand odds on them vs France coming in, especially with Cana out.

Wales vs Slovakia 2-1

A deserved win for an energetic, if limited, Wales side. Slovakia looked overall really poor. One good run by Hamsik early that could (or should) have put them up. Then the keeper allowed a really soft goal and chasing the game was never gonna work for Slovakia. Some more soft defending, this time by Wales, allowed Slovakia to get back in. Couldn’t catch the rest of the match but from what I got, the winner was well deserved. Wales should feel really good about its effort going into the big match against England two points up. Slovakia quite frankly looked really bad and they can count themselves lucky that Russia played even worse, although I couldn’t imagine how that was possible at that stage. Still, they are likely done with this loss. The under was a poor bet in the end. Though the first two goals were pretty soft goalkeeping/defending, the match was more open than expected even if the quality wasn’t too great.

England vs Russia 1-1

England started nice and energetic with a high press in the opening 20 mins. They had some decent-looking situations but couldn’t really create a big chance and Russia managed to slow the tempo down more. After that, England looked in control but never too threatening. An excellent free kick put them up, though I think a better goalkeeper keeps that out. When the match already looked dead, Russia scored an improbable and undeserved equalizer, which was pretty much a freak goal. England were definitely unlucky in that one as Russia didn’t create a proper chance the whole match. Still, Sterling’s decision-making was bad and Hodgson could have done better to sub him off. Liked Walker and Rooney the most for England. They will need a win vs Wales to put themselves in a good position for the group win, which now won’t be too easy. Russia were quite awful in my opinion. Expected much better play at front but they looked horribly toothless. They’ll have a tough time beating Slovakia I think, even though both teams can’t really play any worse. Got unlucky on the England bet and a refund on the over.

Turkey vs Croatia 0-1

Croatia surprisingly put in the best performance for me so far. They needed a brilliant shot from distance (that was saveable), from the equally brilliant Luka Modric to put them up a goal. In the second half especially, they created a ton of good chances and should have easily won by two or three. I would have liked to see a bit less crossing from them but they did create quite a few chances with it too. Their pressing in the second half was imperious and Turkey never looked even close to threatening. Honestly, Turkey was the worst side so far (I expected NIR to suck) and they are pretty much eliminated now, barring a freak improvement in their performance. Croatia will definitely be favourite vs CZ and I’m fancying them on the odds as well. Got a bit unlucky personally, as I took Croatia to score the second a few minutes into the second half. Ah well.

Poland vs Northern Ireland 1-0

Odds went up to 1,8 even before the match, so I got on it before kickoff. Turned out to be a relatively comfortable winner, as Poland dominated start to finish but lacked some incisiveness in the first half. Admittedly, it wasn’t easy against a really destructive NIR side. The early goal in the second half calmed the nerves and they could have got another one but NIR never threatened anyway (0 shots on target). Blaszczykowski and the young Kapustka looked great for me and Poland will really trouble Germany down the flanks I feel. NIR are completely useless and should go out on 0 points. No joy on the odds for Ukraine which are down big time and I rate Ukraine less than Poland.

Germany vs Ukraine 2-0

Probably the most entertaining match (at least the first half). As expected Germany dominated possession but they looked very vulnerable at the back, especially down the flanks. I identified that as their weak point and Germany can count themselves really lucky (+ Neuer) that they didn’t concede in the first half. Controlled the match much better in the second half and ran out a more or less comfortable winner. Kroos was excellent and man of the match. Germany should field a striker next match, they continue to lack punch when Löw fields no real striker and it showed today again. Poland should have some joy vs that defense and I strongly expect goals in that match. Ukraine were decent but toothless in the second half when Germany took better control. Got a bit unlucky on the win+over as I feel that a goal for Ukraine in the first half would have most probably sealed the over.

Some sexy analysis ircus.

I have a quick question:

Portugal to not qualify from their group at $7.50

Does the above option represent value? I notice you are quite optimistic about Portugal but I've looked through their squad list and they appear to be missing:

-a proper out and out striker of any quality
-a boss (or roy keane esque) defensive midfielder
-adequate support for what will surely be a tired ronaldo (moutinho is average imo and queresma is about as reliable as scumbag steve. nani's on a de-stressing retirement preparation plan at fernebace). And none of the forwards or midfield have a good goal/game ratio, ronaldo aside.
-an above average goalkeeper/defender aside from the brainless pepe

I think you'd be better off taking them to exit at R16 or QF if you don't rate them. That's really the worst group in terms of quality and it would take almost a miracle to fail in the group. Also, pretty much everything you say applied already for the last few tournaments. Moutinho now does Velosos job but they never had a striker or some "name" defenders. Arguably there's even more young talent now playing for Portuguese teams.

I am absolutely disgusted by that call in the Peru game, unless all 4 refs were exactly behind the play and blocked by a player idk how not a single one saw that it was a hand ball into the goal. The ref being on his headset for so long to reverse the call then confirm it too is beyond sketch, like whoever calls it from above were confirming whether or not they wanted the rig to be on.

Idgaf if you're a fan of Brazil, Peru, or neither this just shows on any given day your team's fate or the team you bet on is completely in the hands of some dumbass, partial, and incompetent refs. Needless to say I had the tie in that game naturally, but win or lose I want to at least know the game was fair.

1-1-1

Czech Republic +1 goal +120

Heartbreak at the end. I was in on the draw and thought the Czechs deserved it. Sigh.

0-0-1

1-1-2

Irish/Sweden over 2 goals +105

I think Italy will have very little chance to win, but will be able to score a goal. Therefore, I would bet that both teams will score and also on Belgium's victory.

I fancy Belgium not to lose against Italy. Odds drifted a bit and I think represent a bit of value now at 1,45. As I mentioned in my preview, Italy looks toothless in offense and not as secure in defense as you'd expect them to. I expect another slow grindfest tonight and both team will probably be happy with a point. Belgium have far more options to score and I think they are more likely to do so of the two.I'd say about 10 ticks value at these odds.

Belgium +0,5 vs Italy - 1 Unit@1,45 (Betfair)

Without hindsight, Italy probably have the best defense in the competition. So if you think they will score you must also think there's a decent chance of them winning/drawing.

Some sick value on Austria:
- to top their group @$11-$13 (depending on bookmaker)
- to win outright @ $101

Love how people overreact to news (in this case, the recent defeat to Hungary).

What makes you so optimistic about Austria? They looked terrible imo vs Hungary and disappointed me a ton. Their oh so crisp build-up play and passing looked totally off. I wrote about that a bit more in my reviews below. Plus they have Portugal now coming up and will really need to up it if they even want to take a point.

On another note, I think Spain have easily the best defense int he tournament. I think I read it's been their 6th (?) straight shutout at this competition. Italy looked better than expected but this was by far the group's best matchup for them. They'll have to be more proactive in the other two.

The rest of my recap below and I'll drop a little preview on tomorrow's matches shortly.

Spain vs Czech Republic 1-0

Spain left it for late which unfortunately meant another push for our bets. They dominated the Czech Republic start to finish and should have won that way more comfortably. Iniesta was majestic in midfield and orchestrated almost every Spanish attack, Silva was good too. Nolito had some poor-decision-making and Morata was decent but a bit unlucky. In general I liked what I saw from Spain, good crisp passing and set up some decent chances to score. They only lacked execution and got again caught up a bit too much in overpassing it. Czech Republic tried to play for a draw and almost got away with it but got punished in the end. There was not a lot to see in terms of their offensive play apart from one decent situation in the Spanish box in the second half. Did not impress me too much, the Czechs left way too much space for Spain in midfield and I think they will have trouble against Croatia as well.

Ireland vs Sweden 1-1

Good performance by Ireland and a poor one by Sweden for a deserved draw. Ireland played with much more energy and effort and compensated for their lack in technical skills. Sweden never threatened and look way too uncreative with the ball and their attempts to play it only through Ibrahimovic. Irish went up deservedly in the second half but dropped too deep after that and allowed Olsson on the left to torment them with dangerous crosses into the box. A good play by Ibra set up the own-goal. Ireland tried to go for the winner after that but lacked quality in the end. A fair split of the points and one more push here (though I personally managed to make some money at least, having layed Sweden shortly before half-time). Not a good result for Ireland to come bottom and Sweden has a backs-against-the-wall situation next match against Italy.

Belgium vs Italy 0-2

Yet another game, yet another under. Belgium’s problems in attack resurfaced again. Despite having tons of talent, they looked unprepared and clueless going forward. Belgium mostly tried to combine down the flanks but ended up crossing it in early to Lukaku, who would then lay it off and one of the midfielders fired from distance. Italy didn’t look particularly threatening either but the Belgian defense created a chance for them to score and they took it. Second half Italy rode it out behind some good and cynical defending, vintage Italian stuff you could say. They look in good shape to go through this group as winners, despite the utter lack of creativity and firepower. A Sweden side that is looking to pick up points will suit their play although this was probably the best matchup for them. Belgium needs to improve really fast and I think they could struggle again against Ireland with that kind of uninspired performance. Particularly disappointing: De Bruyne, who couldn’t get any decision right.

Austria vs Hungary 0-2

A terribly disappointing performance by Austria. After 30 seconds they hit the post and looked like they would start the tournament in great fashion but it turned out that this was the pinnacle of their match. To my surprise Hungary looked much more structured and disciplined than Austria, who were all over the place. Their passing looked really bad (only 72% completions) and their pressing was completely uncoordinated. Neither team really threatened the goal and Hungary converted right away on its first big chance. A second yellow for Austria shortly after that meant that the game was pretty much done around the 65min mark. They still opened up way too much after the first goal and that second goal could cost them big time in this tight group. Austria already has its backs against the wall against Portugal and needs an absolute performance explosion. Hungary can probably seal the surprise with a point against Iceland. I got this one absolutely wrong.

Portugal vs Iceland 1-1

One more surprise in this group but this wasn’t a deserved one. Portugal played pretty well in my opinion and was looking in cruise control after the first half. Iceland got the equalizer pretty much out of the blue and then defended bravely until the end. In all fairness, Portugal looked way too tame in front of goal when they needed to score and that has been their eternal problem. Ronaldo doesn’t really look in form either. Iceland was hoofing mostly long balls forwarded as expected and it will be interesting to see how they fare when they need to play for the win. A lucky draw and Portugal will still feel ok about itself after Austria’s slip but the other two matches won’t be an easy matchup for them either. Iceland has the big one against Hungary coming up and they need to pick up points there to stay in the race.

Previews for tomorrow - good luck!

Russia vs Slovakia

Both teams largely disappointed on Matchday 1 but Russia was at least lucky to get a point. The Russian’s might replace Neustädter in midfield for a technically better and more offensive option and they’ll likely get the assignment of creating play here. Slovakia will be happy to sit back and play on the counter once more and taking Neustädter off will be good news for Hamsik. He should get some room to make more runs into dangerous zones like he did at the start of the match against Wales. It’s still likely to be another dull and dreary encounter and I can’t find any value here. Goals might be an option if both teams look committed to playing for a win early on but in all fairness, at gunpoint I would rather take the 1,6 for under 2,5 which has cashed 10/12 times on Matchday 1. Match odds do not make appeal either, as both teams looked poor first match and I can’t see any matchup advantages. I’ll sit this one out.

Romania vs Switzerland

Another match that has a draw-ish feel to it. Both could be happy with a point here and I wouldn’t expect either to push for a win in the final 15 minutes. Romania had a good first match but needs to be more proactive here (which they won’t be). Switzerland will likely dictate play and I doubt they will drop as deep as France did during spells of their first match. Both teams looked dangerous on set-pieces so this might be a source of goals. Odds look pretty correct, I was thinking about taking +0,5 on Switzerland but I would like to see at least 1,45 to make a play on that. They did look somewhat vulnerable in defense against Albania and I can easily see Romania getting one on the break and shutting them out. Goals look a bit more likely than in the first match of the day but not good enough for me to make a play. Another one to avoid.

France vs Albania

France disappointed a bit in their first match but they are on course and another win here puts them in pole position for the group win. Albania conceded quite a few chances versus Switzerland, though the early goal and the red card certainly played a part. Missing Cana is big for them, he’s the captain and that is a big loss right in central defense where it hurts the most. I epect France to play with more freedom and energy after the nervy opener and in my opinion they look good enough to carve out enough chances for 2 to 3 goals. Don’t think Albania will be able to score and thus I like France to cover the handicap. Odds surprisingly went up despite Albania missing a key player and I’ll happily take advantage of that. The same handicap closed at 1,72 in their friendly a year ago and I’m always more confident to take a bigger nation to get the job done at a tournament versus a friendly. One of the best values of that round in my opinion.

France -1,5 to beat Albania – 1 Unit@1,85 (Pinnacle)