Been lurking here; slightly up so far but I figured I'd finally post here, right or wrong. Leaned heavily on Milan and Milan -1 last night; woohoo.

Spurs - Tbilisi
Spurs Clean Sheet (1.91) (1.2u)

Feyenoord - Kuban Krasnodar
O2,5 (1.90) (1.2u)

FC Slovan Liberec - Udinese
Udinese (2.10) (1u)

What, nobody had the balls to back St.Gallen in Moscow?

6-4 ---> +3.3875

Overall: 28-26-2 | W-Ratio: 50% | Net: +5.533

Bayern - Chelsea

Bayern @ 1.8 (1.25 units)

nothing but that one tomorrow, think this is +EV and might move towards bayern when we get closer to kick-off so gonna take it now

I think Chelsea is a great price @5.00. they aren't going to be a walk over. The new season hasn't got of to the best of starts either for Bayern and the change of formation seems to making the defence a little more susceptible

Japanese J-League

Cerezo Osaka (4th) v Kawasaki Frontale (8th)

Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals and have the highest goals scored stats in the league thanks to Ōkubo, the league top scorer who has netted in 8 out of his last matches. 6 out of 10 of the last Cerezo home games have gone over 2.5 goals. The last 3 meetings between these sides ended with at least 4 goals. Cerezo have an average of 3 goals in the last 6 matches while Kawasaki have an average of 3.33 goals.

Kawasaki have an enormous average goals per game with a consistent record with 82% of their matches going over 2.5 goals with an average of 3.91 goals per game over the season. Cerezo are a team that plays open football when at home to an attack minded opponent as can be see by their home games this season against Yokohama and Urawa Reds.

Punter Assist Prediction: This match has an 82% chance of going over 2.5 goals. At odds of 1/2 with Paddy Power this yields a ROI of 23%.

Season J-League Stats:
Cerezos matches go over 2.5 goals 52% (63% at home) of the time with an average of 2.52 goals per game.
Kawasaki Frontales matches go over 2.5 goals 82% (83% away) of the time with an average of 3.91 goals per game.
Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals.

Bayern is giving at no better than 1.67 on my friendly local e-betting parlour; not touching it at that price but will certainly watch the game. Will be out all weekend, so I will just leave these here:

AUG 31
Bastia - Toulouse
Toulousse (3.10) (0.50u)

Evian - Lyon
Lyon (2.60) (1.5u) (Placed it a few days ago; down to 2.15 now)

Norwich City - Southampton
O2,5 (1.91) (1.25u)

Manchester City - Hull City
U2,5 (2.65) (0.25u)

SEP 01
Real Sociedad - Atletico Madrid
O2,5 (1.87) (1.2u)

St. Etienne - Bordeaux
U1,5 (2.60) (0.75u)

Bologna - Sampdoria
Bologna (2.25) (1u)

Liverpool - Manchester United
RvP to score anytime (2.45) (0.75u)

WBA - Swansea
Draw (3.30) (0.50u)

6-10-1 -4.58u

Everton/Cardiff over 2.5 goals 1u-1u
Palace/Sunderland draw .5u-1.1u
Hammers/Stoke under 2 goals 1u-1.35u
Norwich 1u-1.85u
Newcastle 1u-1.1u

Most confident about the West Ham win at home. confidence will be up at Blackburn from last week and Tottenham, while they have a good squad, are struggling to find goals so far this season and Arsenal will beat them by 1 or 2.

0-1-0 ---> -1.25

Overall: 28-27-2 | W-Ratio: 49,1% | Net: +4.283 units

Norwich - Southampton

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9 (1.25 units)

Cardiff - Everton

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.89 (1.25 units)

West Ham - Stoke

West Ham @ 2.04 (1 unit)

for tomorrow:

Arsenal - Tottenham

Arsenal @ 2.16 (1 unit)

Liverpool - Man Utd

Man Utd @ 2.96 (0.75 unit)

6-7 +0.295
Man City to nil @ (1.5u)

adding

Palace - Sunderland

Palace 0 @ 1,84 (1,25 units)

i see Man U at +175 and Liverpool at +135. is this a mistake/good opportunity? how can Liverpool be favored?

3-1 ---> +2.2875

Overall: 31-28-2 | W-Ratio: 50,8% | Net: +6.5705

Anfield factor mainly, liverpool have a quality team and can definitely give man u a lot of problems, especially at home. I don't really like picking united in this one but i did it at +196 (betfair) mainly for entertainment value (i'm a utd supporter) but that's at least close to breakeven EV. Wouldn't take them at much less than that and probably would leave +175 alone

Arsenal v Tottenham

Tottenham come into this match 3 points ahead of Arsenal thanks to two narrow 1-0 wins, both Soldado penalties. Arsenal have won 5-2 in the last two North London derbies at The Emirates, with Tottenham’s 3-2 win in 2010 being their first away win at Arsenal in the Premier League since 1993 however Tottenham have failed to concede a goal this season and look a much more solid team with Capoue, Sandro, Dembele and Paulinho vying for places in midfield.

Arsenal will be without Lukas Podolski after the German limped off with a torn hamstring in their 3-0 win over Fenerbahce in midweek. Gareth Bale won’t play for Tottenham again and is expected to complete his move to Real Madrid in the next couple of days.

This fixture has produced more goals than any other fixture in Premier League history and in previous seasons this match would have been a clear over 2.5 goals bet, which would have won in the last 9 meetings, but with Tottenham's new personnel changing their style from being a very fast counter attacking team to a more compact high pressing team and Podolski's injury the 1.7 (Bet365) for over 2.5 goals is looking to be the fair odds.

10 of Olivier Giroud’s 11 goals came at The Emirates last season and he has never scored outside of London in the Premier League and he can be had at 2.88 (Stan James) to score anytime which does appeal as Arsenal will have to try to play a more long ball approach to their big frontman to combat the physicality of Tottenham's midfield.

Tottenham will need Paulinho’s energy in midfield alongside Capoue and Mousa Dembele to limit the time that Arsenal’s more creative players such as Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere (doubtful) have on the ball.

There is an added element to this match in that it is a north London derby and both teams fans will demand 100% commitment and it is very likely that these two teams will be playing for 4th place this season so it is more important not to lose than it is to win this match.

Arsenal head into the game with a host of injuries, as midfielders Jack Wilshere (ankle) and Aaron Ramsey (groin) are both doubts, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Thomas Vermaelen (back), Mikel Arteta (thigh) and Lukas Podolski (hamstring) all miss out. Tottenham have doubts over the fitness of Aaron Lennon (ankle).

Arsenal had a good win over Fenerbahce midweek to follow up their impressive win over Fulham last weekend while Tottenham have made hard work against bottom half teams in their opening two league games.

Tottenham will be on the back foot in this match and their midfield will be putting in some strong tackles to combat the speed of Arsenal's midfield and they will get a few yellow cards especially if Arsenal take the lead who go into this match as favourites while Tottenham are still getting to know their new players.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham -0.5 Total Cards @ 1.825 (Bet365)

Predicted strike rate: 70% for a ROI of 28%

Navigate to match market on Bet365 > Click on 'Cards' > Click on 'Asian Handicap Cards'

3-2 +2.8u


9-12-1 -1.78u

adding

West Brom - Swansea

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94 (1,25 unit)

Atalanta - Torino

Atalanta @ 2,2 (1 unit)

Bologna - Sampdoria

Bologna @ 2,52 (1 unit)

Udinese - Parma

Udinese @ 2,18 (1 unit)

Espanyol - Betis

Draw @ 3,7 (0,5 unit)

Valencia - Barcelona

Valencia @ 6,8 (0,33 unit)

Real Madrid - Bilbao

Bilbao @ 19,5 (0,33 unit)

9-12-1 -1.78u

Liverpool/Reds over 2.5 goals 1.15u-1u
WBA/Swans draw .5u-1.12u
Gunners 1u-1.05u
Gunners/Spurs over 2.5 goals 1.4u-1u

1-3 -2u

10-15-1 -3.78u

adding

Marseille - Monaco

Marseille 0 @ 2.17 (1 unit)

4-6 ---> +0.23

Overall: 35-34-2 | W-Ratio: 49,3% | Net: +6.8005

NAUTICO – SAO PAOLO
Just by looking at the table one can see in how difficult situation Nautico is. With or without second division syndrome, they are justifying their status of relegation candidate from the beginning of the season. They’ve lost 11 out of last 15 games and they also have worst efficiency in the league with only 9 goals scored so far. Constant coach shifts are also not helping them gain stability – in last four months they’ve changed four coaches.
Moreover, they’ve recently moved onto the new stadium so they don’t even have the feeling of playing on home turf. They’ve also been eliminated from Sul-Americani Cup against biggest rival, now playing in second division Sport Recife. In this match they wont be able to count on their key defender Joao Filipe so I expect their defense to be even more unstable.
In last four league games they played against Cricuma, Bahia, Fluminense and Atletico PR and lost all four of them – on the other hand Sao Paolo played with Fluminense and Atletico and took 4 points in those two matches. They’ve also played very good against Flamengo where they missed last minute penalty worth all three points and took a point against top team of Botafogo. All that suggests that they are close to getting out of crisis because they are showing it not only with results but also with their play on the field.
Difference in squad quality is also notable cause Sao Paolo has a couple of times more expensive team than hosts and they will also be stronger today because their top striker Luis Fabiano is back from suspension.
Advantage for visitors is also the fact that Nautico played four games in last two weeks and Sao Paolo only two and I expect more freshness in away team.
BET: 2
Odds: 2.10
Good luck

anyone else think the price you can get on bristol city at home vs rivals bristol rovers is a decent? (4/5) city are a league above rovers (relegation from the championship for city, rovers finished in bottom half of league 2 last year to put it into comparison) city are at home in front of 16,000 supporters on live TV so should be up for it. Both managers have come out saying it's a really important match for the club and fans which means both clubs should be fielding their absolute strongest teams.

21-17 +8.94u

Ghana -190 risk 1.9 win 1

lets get this international money

Overall: 35-34-2 | W-Ratio: 49,3% | Net: +6.8005

Bosnia - Slovakia

Bosnia @ 1,52 (2 units)

Macedonia - Wales

Wales 0 & -0.5 (1 unit)

Liechtenstein - Greece

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.91 (1.25 units)

N. Ireland - Portugal

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.97 (1.25 units)

Poland - Montenegro

Poland @ 1.99 (1 unit)

Ireland - Sweden

Ireland @ 2.96 (0.5 unit)

Scotland - Belgium

Scotland @ 5.7 (0.33 unit)

Serbia - Croatia

Draw @ 3.3 (0.33 unit)

Slovenia - Albania

Albania +0.5 @ 2.06 (1 unit)

Switzerland - Iceland

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.88 (1.25 unit)

Ukraine - San Marino

Over 4.5 goals @ 1.57 (2 units)

Romania - Hungary

Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.04 (1 unit)