0-1 -1u

1-1 +0.0u

1-1 ----> +0.62

Overall 4-5 | W-Ratio: 44.4% | Net: +0.055 units

Overall 4-5 | W-Ratio: 44.4% | Net: +0.055 units

Gonna go a little nuts on the europa league

Aktobe - Kyiv

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.04 (1 unit)

Tbilisi - Spurs

Spurs @ 1.48 (2,2 units)

Jablonec - Betis

Jablonec @ 4.7 (0,4 units)

Karabakh - Frankfurt

Frankfurt @ 1.86 (1,2 units)

Kuban Krasnodar - Feyenoord

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.24 (1 unit)

Atromitos - Alkmaar

Alkmaar @ 2.7 (1 unit)

Minsk - Standard

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (1 unit)

Maccabi Haifa - Astra Giurgiu

Haifa @ 2.2 (1 unit)

Esbjerg - St. Etienne

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 (1 unit)

FH - Genk

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04 (1 unit)


that should do it lol

So Villa are 4.2 with some bookies vs Pool for Saturday. Am I missing something here, seems like superb value. I know Pool have had no game this week but still

7-3 ----> +5.808

Overall: 11-8 | W-Ratio: 57,9% | Net: +5.863 units

whooop

It's probably close to where it should be, pinny has it at 4.18 but i think 4.2 is probably worth a go on them, not sure if i'll take that one though. Would be wary of Liverpool, they looked extremely good against stoke.

From all accounts (didn't see the game) Villa were unfortunate to get a loss vs Chelsea and were excellent against Arsenal, plus Pool were pretty wasteful in front of goal vs Stoke, and I can't see Villa giving up too many chances. I think that the odds should be lot closer to even money for both teams, certainly don't think Villa are that much of a dog. Anyway I'm in on it now so I'll just shut up about it lol

Imo you might be over-adjusting based on the opening 2 games, you must not forget that this is a team that was battling relegation for most of last season and while you're correct about liverpool being wasteful in front of goal, both against stoke and throughout the whole of last season, they routinely place near the top in most categories such as shots on goal, possession etc. etc. so it shouldn't be forgotten that Liverpool are an elite team. I would expect Aston Villa to be subject to heavy pressure in the match and whether or not they get a result will be down to how effectively they can break and benteke has been beasting lately in this sort of system. But i think liverpool will unquestionably create at least 1 or 2 very good chances through intricate final third passing, an area where they strengthened themselves with aspas and coutinho coming into his own. They looked especially efficient in the final third against stoke.
That being said liverpool looked like they were susceptible to over-commitment and might be vulnerable to the counter, but perhaps that was because brendan rodgers wasn't all that afraid of stoke's counter-attack capabilities and he could look to try and not go so gung-ho against a villa side who have looked threatning on the break.

Now after having said all this, i reaffirm my view that 4.2 is probably slightly +EV and with the way villa have been playing it's well and truly worth a punt. All i'm saying is that Liverpool is favored and pretty heavily at that (even though they are away) and i think it is definitely justified.

For the purposes of this argument i'm going to chuck up what i think is a rough guesstimate of a "real" line, this looks at least reasonable (it's probably actually more slighted towards liverpool. Pinnacle thinks liverpool has a 52% chance of winning)

Villa Draw Liverpool
25% 30% 45%

edit: fwiw i'll probably end up taking Villa +0.5 at evens

anyone watch the udinese game first game ive ever watched that seemed fixed

gonna throw a quick one on brazil cup since i'm bored ****less

Atletico MG - Botafogo

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08 (1 unit)

Thanks for the reply frikkiw, makes sense, guess my irrational hatred for Liverpool is at play too hehe

0-1 --> -1

Overall: 11-9 | W-Ratio: 55% | Net: +4.863

BENTEKE!!!!!!

BOOM!

Getafe - Almeria

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (1 unit)

Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna

Athletic @ 1.78 (1,5 units)

Monaco - Toulouse

Monaco -1 & -1.5 @ 1.95 (1,5 units)

Dortmund - Werder Bremen

Bremen +0.5 @ 4.62 (0,33 units)

Very shady indeed. Although they hit the post 2x and missed that ridiculous chance on the line in the 2nd half they were playing without urgency at all. Also conceded 3 goals with like 3 goals on target.

3-3-1 -.3u

Gunners 1u-1.05u
Stoke/Crystal under 2 goals 1u-1.3u
Villa +.5 goal 1.05u-1u
Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals 1.3u-1u
Everton -1 goal 1.1u-1u
Newcastle/Hammers over 2.5 goals 1u-1u
Hull/Norwich draw 1u-2.25u

2-2 ---> +0.52

Overall: 13-11 | W-Ratio: 54,2% | Net: +5.383

I'm drunk as ****, but gonna throw in the early game now so i don't miss it

Fulham - Arsenal

Arsenal @ 2.04 (1 unit)

1-1 +0u

Everton/WBA - Everton to win/3 or 4 goals in match @ 3.80 (1u)
Fullham/Arsenal - Giroud to score anytime @ 2.80 (1u)
Stoke/Crystal Palace - Stoke to win @ 1.88 (1.2u)
Hull/Norwich - Norwich +0.25 AH @ 1.92 (1.2u)
Villa/Pool - 2 or 3 goals in match @ 2.08 (1u)
United/Hammers United to win @ 2.30 (1u)

Everton - WBA

Under 2.5 goals @ 2.34 (1 unit)

Hull - Norwich

Hull 0 & -0.5 @ 2.05 (1 unit)

Newcastle - West Ham

Newcastle @ 2.44 (1 unit)

Stoke - Palace

Palace @ 5.2 (0,33 unit)

Aston Villa - Liverpool

Liverpool @ 1.89 (1,5 unit)

U guys and ur decimal odds

european ftw my man

i actually think the american format is really comfortable but the odds are listed in decimals on betfair and can´t be bothered to convert them

decimals ftw

Verona - AC Milan

AC Milan @ 1.76 (1,5 units)

Sampdoria - Juve

Juve -1 & -1.5 @ 2.03 (1 unit)

1-6 -5.4u

4-9-1 -5.7u

Tough day, frustrating that Norwich couldn't snag a goal a man up and Everton who dominated couldn't get one for at least a push