Quote:
Originally Posted by giraffeboy
From all accounts (didn't see the game) Villa were unfortunate to get a loss vs Chelsea and were excellent against Arsenal, plus Pool were pretty wasteful in front of goal vs Stoke, and I can't see Villa giving up too many chances. I think that the odds should be lot closer to even money for both teams, certainly don't think Villa are that much of a dog. Anyway I'm in on it now so I'll just shut up about it lol
Imo you might be over-adjusting based on the opening 2 games, you must not forget that this is a team that was battling relegation for most of last season and while you're correct about liverpool being wasteful in front of goal, both against stoke and throughout the whole of last season, they routinely place near the top in most categories such as shots on goal, possession etc. etc. so it shouldn't be forgotten that Liverpool are an elite team. I would expect Aston Villa to be subject to heavy pressure in the match and whether or not they get a result will be down to how effectively they can break and benteke has been beasting lately in this sort of system. But i think liverpool will unquestionably create at least 1 or 2 very good chances through intricate final third passing, an area where they strengthened themselves with aspas and coutinho coming into his own. They looked especially efficient in the final third against stoke.
That being said liverpool looked like they were susceptible to over-commitment and might be vulnerable to the counter, but perhaps that was because brendan rodgers wasn't all that afraid of stoke's counter-attack capabilities and he could look to try and not go so gung-ho against a villa side who have looked threatning on the break.
Now after having said all this, i reaffirm my view that 4.2 is probably slightly +EV and with the way villa have been playing it's well and truly worth a punt. All i'm saying is that Liverpool is favored and pretty heavily at that (even though they are away) and i think it is definitely justified.
For the purposes of this argument i'm going to chuck up what i think is a rough guesstimate of a "real" line, this looks at least reasonable (it's probably actually more slighted towards liverpool. Pinnacle thinks liverpool has a 52% chance of winning)
Villa Draw Liverpool
25% 30% 45%
edit: fwiw i'll probably end up taking Villa +0.5 at evens