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Old 05-31-2013, 08:20 PM   #5176
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

15-13-0 +7.44u

Bayern Munich -475 risk 4.75u win 1u
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:02 PM   #5177
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
Overall: 15-23 - W-Ratio: 39,47% - Net: -8,52 units

Argentina tonight:

Quilmes - Racing Club

Quilmes @ 1,59 (3 units) W

the odds are completely out of whack with regard to the quality of the teams and i found out why. I understand that the motivation is absolutely 100% on the side of Quilmes, relegation threatend and playing at home, Quilmes have to win. Racing Club have absolutely nothing to play for but actually have an incentive to lose, it has been reported that the players have been receiving death threats from their own fans telling them to lose so that their fierce local rivals independiente will get relegated... bizarre situation and i really don't know how much can be made out of all of this so i'm just going to go with 3 units although i kind of want to go really big on this one.. if this information is true and at the very least in the back of Racing Club players' minds i think Quilmes are going to come out with the win at a huge frequency. I'm really curious to see how this plays out.
Haven't got a clue whether or not all the hoopla around the match factored in at all, didn't really look like it the Racing players looked like they were playing pretty hard and to be honest were quite unlucky not to have equalized midway through the second half.. Quilmes were probably not value at 1,59 even though they won, chalk that one up to rungood

Overall: 16-23 - W-ratio: 41% - Net: -6,75
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Old 06-01-2013, 10:11 AM   #5178
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Spain

Real Madrid - Osasuna

Under 2,5 goals @ 4,2 (0,5 unit)

more to add later
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Old 06-01-2013, 01:32 PM   #5179
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
Spain

Real Madrid - Osasuna

Under 2,5 goals @ 4,2 (0,5 unit) L

more to add later
Overall: 16-24 - W-Ratio: 40% - Net: -7,25 units

Spain

Depor - Sociedad
Under 2,5 @ 2,88 (1 unit)
Draw @ 4 (0,5 unit)

Sevilla - Valencia
Under 2,5 @ 2,66 (1 unit)

Celta - Espanyol
Under 2,5 @ 2,18 (1 unit)

Mallorca - Valladolid
Under 2,5 @ 2,28 (1 unit)

Brazil

Botafogo - Cruzeiro
Under 2,5 @ 2,06 (1 unit)

Atletico PR - Flamengo
Over 2,5 @ 2,12 (1 unit)
Atletico @ 2,42 (1 unit)

Santos - Gremio
Santos or Draw @ 1,56 (2 units)

Goais - Coritiba
Goias @ 2,42 (1 unit)
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Old 06-01-2013, 02:08 PM   #5180
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Panama/Peru Draw +215 risk 1u
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Old 06-01-2013, 06:24 PM   #5181
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
Overall: 16-24 - W-Ratio: 40% - Net: -7,25 units

Spain

Depor - Sociedad
Under 2,5 @ 2,88 (1 unit) W
Draw @ 4 (0,5 unit) L

Sevilla - Valencia
Under 2,5 @ 2,66 (1 unit) L

Celta - Espanyol
Under 2,5 @ 2,18 (1 unit) W

Mallorca - Valladolid
Under 2,5 @ 2,28 (1 unit) L

Brazil

Botafogo - Cruzeiro
Under 2,5 @ 2,06 (1 unit) L

Atletico PR - Flamengo
Over 2,5 @ 2,12 (1 unit) W
Atletico @ 2,42 (1 unit) L

Santos - Gremio
Santos or Draw @ 1,56 (2 units) W
Overall: 20-29 - W-Ratio: 40,8% - Units: -6,45 units

Goias-Coritiba going on, their one down at halftime so not looking good

added:

Corinthians-Ponte Preta

Draw or Ponte Preta @ 2,72 (1 unit)
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Old 06-01-2013, 06:56 PM   #5182
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Atletico Rafael - San lorenzo

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,7 (1,5 units)
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Old 06-01-2013, 09:53 PM   #5183
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post

Goais - Coritiba
Goias @ 2,42 (1 unit) L

Corinthians-Ponte Preta

Draw or Ponte Preta @ 2,72 (1 unit) L

Atletico Rafael - San lorenzo

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,7 (1,5 units) W
Overall: 21-31 - W-Ratio: 40,4% - Net: -7,4 units
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Old 06-02-2013, 09:30 AM   #5184
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Spain Segunda Division

Almeria Girona
Under 3,5 goals @ 1,59 (2 units)

Barcelona B - Villarreal
Under 3,5 goals @ 1,73 (1,5 units)

Guadalajara - Lugo
Guadalajara @ 2,1 (1 unit)

Cordóba -Mirandes
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,87 (1,25 unit)

Hercules - Murcia
Hercules or Draw @ 2,1 (1 unit)

Ponferradina - Racing
Ponferradina @ 2,08 (1 unit)
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,81 (1,25 units)
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Old 06-02-2013, 10:07 AM   #5185
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Icelandic Premier league

IBV-Fylkir

Draw or Fylkir @ 2,5 (1 unit)
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Old 06-02-2013, 10:49 AM   #5186
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Internationals

Brazil - England

Draw or England @ 2,72 (1 unit)
England @ 7 (0,5 unit)
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Old 06-02-2013, 01:55 PM   #5187
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
Spain Segunda Division

Almeria Girona
Under 3,5 goals @ 1,59 (2 units) W

Barcelona B - Villarreal
Under 3,5 goals @ 1,73 (1,5 units) W

Guadalajara - Lugo
Guadalajara @ 2,1 (1 unit) L

Cordóba -Mirandes
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,87 (1,25 unit) L

Hercules - Murcia
Hercules or Draw @ 2,1 (1 unit) L

Ponferradina - Racing
Ponferradina @ 2,08 (1 unit) L
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,81 (1,25 units) L
2-5 --> -3.225 units

Overall: 23-36 - W-Ratio: 39% - Net: -10.625 units
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Old 06-02-2013, 02:28 PM   #5188
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

added for tonight:

Brazil

Atletico MG - Sao Paulo

Over 2,5 goals @ 2,16 (1 unit)

Nautico - Portuguesa

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,88 (1,25 units)

Internacioanl - Bahia

Internacional -1 @ 2,16 (1 unit)

USA - Germany

Germany @ 2,18 (1 unit)



gonna take a huge thump today if none of this comes off but meh.. i'm bored haha
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Old 06-02-2013, 02:53 PM   #5189
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

16-14-0. +7.44u

Brazil -185
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Old 06-02-2013, 05:32 PM   #5190
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
Icelandic Premier league

IBV-Fylkir

Draw or Fylkir @ 2,5 (1 unit) L

Internationals

Brazil - England

Draw or England @ 2,72 (1 unit) W
England @ 7 (0,5 unit) L

USA - Germany

Germany @ 2,18 (1 unit) L
1-3 ---> -0.78

Overall: 24-39 | W-Ratio: 38% | Net: -11.405 units

just added

Fluminense - Criciuma

Fluminense @ 1,71 (1,5 unit)

hoping the brazilian league bails me out of what has otherwise been a pretty ****ty day.. how tilting was that germany game
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Old 06-02-2013, 07:32 PM   #5191
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

USA! USA! USA!
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Old 06-02-2013, 09:29 PM   #5192
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
added for tonight:

Brazil

Atletico MG - Sao Paulo

Over 2,5 goals @ 2,16 (1 unit) L

Nautico - Portuguesa

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,88 (1,25 units) L

Internacioanl - Bahia

Internacional -1 @ 2,16 (1 unit) L

Fluminense - Criciuma

Fluminense @ 1,71 (1,5 unit) W
1-3 ---> -2.185 units

Overall: 25-42 | W-Ratio: 37,3% | Net: -13.59 units

sucking pretty hard atm.. starting to tilt a bit.. might take a smallish break until i stop, gonna use the time to put in a little more research, the summer leagues are a *****
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Old 06-02-2013, 09:33 PM   #5193
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVig View Post
USA! USA! USA!
haha such a bizarre game to watch... kind of feel for ter stegen, brutal to be so young and make such an idiotic mistake
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Old 06-03-2013, 10:30 AM   #5194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVig View Post
USA! USA! USA!
Lol had Germany
Wtf that goalkeeper was auditioning for a Wc spot
There it goes
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Old 06-03-2013, 01:30 PM   #5195
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRONICFEVER View Post
Lol had Germany
Wtf that goalkeeper was auditioning for a Wc spot
There it goes
didn't see the second half but watched the first.. it was just such a bizarre game to watch, germany were really incisive and had a couple of absolute sitters but all of a sudden it was 2-0 for USA
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Old 06-03-2013, 04:22 PM   #5196
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

gonna play:

Argentina

All boys - Newell's

All boys or draw @ 2,1 (1 unit)
Over 2,5 goals @ 2,48 (1 unit)

didn't find any value on the other argentinian game but i feel that a newell's team that played 120 minutes of football only 5 days ago might struggle a bit on the road against an all boys team who have been decent on their own soil.. if all boys can come up with a win at home near 20% of the time then the draw needs to come off just under 30% of the time, it's a tall order for Newell's to win on the road >50% of the time even though they have been fantastic.. probably wouldn't have moved on this if not for the short amount of time since their last game

the over seems pretty undervalued at 2,48 only has to come off 40% of the time to be breakeven, games in the torneo final over the last couple of seasons are over 44,51% and 42,67% in this season so +148 should be +ev
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Old 06-03-2013, 05:35 PM   #5197
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

got cold feet on all boys, managed to arb out without a loss, case of forcing the issue.. it's probably not a good idea to bet against newell's in the form their in + them going hard chasing the title.. although i don't like them at all away at -115, should have just been a pass from the outset.. gonna keep the goal bet
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Old 06-03-2013, 09:10 PM   #5198
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by frikkiw40 View Post
gonna play:

Argentina

All boys - Newell's

Over 2,5 goals @ 2,48 (1 unit) W

the over seems pretty undervalued at 2,48 only has to come off 40% of the time to be breakeven, games in the torneo final over the last couple of seasons are over 44,51% and 42,67% in this season so +148 should be +ev
1-1 ---> +1.48 units

Overall: 26-42 | W-Ratio: 38,2% | Net: -12.11 units

Quote:
All boys or draw @ 2,1 (1 unit) bitched out

didn't find any value on the other argentinian game but i feel that a newell's team that played 120 minutes of football only 5 days ago might struggle a bit on the road against an all boys team who have been decent on their own soil.. if all boys can come up with a win at home near 20% of the time then the draw needs to come off just under 30% of the time, it's a tall order for Newell's to win on the road >50% of the time even though they have been fantastic.. probably wouldn't have moved on this if not for the short amount of time since their last game

-----------

got cold feet on all boys, managed to arb out without a loss, case of forcing the issue.. it's probably not a good idea to bet against newell's in the form their in + them going hard chasing the title.. although i don't like them at all away at -115, should have just been a pass from the outset.. gonna keep the goal bet
happy that my initial sentiment was correct but very pissed off at myself for pussy-ing out.. being stuck is definitely taking it's toll on my decision making but meh.. i go on vacation in a month until the european leagues start back up again so let's just see how much i can butt**** myself till then
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Old 06-03-2013, 10:47 PM   #5199
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Old 06-04-2013, 05:02 PM   #5200
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

vig give us some world qualifier locks
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