Norway - Molde - Honefoss

Draw or Honefoss @ 2,85 1unit

Overall 0-5 -- Net: -5,5 units

for tonight

Dortmund - Bayern
Under 2,5 @ 2,18 (1 unit)
Dortmund to lift trophy @ 3,3 (0,5 unit)

Vasco - Portuguesa
Draw @ 3,75 (0,5 unit)

Vitoria - Internacional
Vitoria or draw @ 1,61 (1,5 units)

Just put my entire bankroll on Dortmund to win. $7,300 @ odds 5.15. Going to regret that very soon.

sicktimes.. at least you'll be encouraged by their bright start

Makes for a good sweat

Boom

Grats all u Bayern backers! Ship ship Bookies must have taken a beating on this one. Over cashed in and both scored as well.

****ing annoying CL final loss.. but anywho... nice to clock in the first W .. caught the Under 2,5 goals at 2,2 in play on Corinthians - Botafogo as soon as Botafogo went up 1-0

Overall: 2-8 -- Net: -6,3 units

Spain - Osasuna-Sevilla

Draw or Sevilla @ 1,61 (1,5 units)

Real Sociedad - Real Madrid

Draw or Real Madrid @ 1,68 (2 units)

Malaga - La Coruna

Under 2,5 goals @ 2,26 (1 unit)

Betis - Zaragoza

Under 2,5 goals @ 2,2 (1 unit)

Italy - Lazio-Roma

Lazio @ 3,2 (0,5 unit)

Brazil - Santos-Flamengo

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,93 (1 unit)

Thank you

overall: 5-11 -- net: -6,41 units

Brazil tonight:

Fluminense - Atletico PR

Fluminense @ 2,38 (1 unit)

Coritiba - Atletico MG

Atletico MG @ 3,9 (0,5 unit)
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,9 (1 unit)

Cruzeiro - Goias

Draw @ 4,2 (0,5 unit)
Under 2,5 goals @ 2,14 (1 unit)

Getting smacked in the face by late goals galore recently.. ah well, bad run's gonna get snapped eventually.. have to scale it back though, bets on the cruzeiro game were borderline break-even EV at the very best.. forcing the issue a bit..

overall: 6-15 -- net: -8,03 units

Can't pass this one up for tonight:

Copa libertadores second leg: Newell's Old Boys - Boca Juniors

Newell's @ 1,66 (2 units)

love newell's here, Boca Juniors have been terrible on the road and Newell's are top of the table in argentina.. the first leg went 0-0 at La Bombanera and Boca have some talent in their side and are gonna be riled up for the match but i think newell's will do what they need to do to get the next round at home, side note: boca have a record of 3 goals for and 14 against on the road in the torneo final.. and in the last 3 games away they have lost all 3 with a record of 1 goal for and 10 against.. think this is a great spot

Crystal palace - watford
Under 2,5 goals @ 2 (1 unit)
Crystal palace to be promoted @ 2,4 (1 unit)

made a pretty stupid mistake, the copa libertadores second leg is on wednesday, this was just a league game but i guess it was okay that will just have added to newell's value.. ended up giving boca a 4-0 drubbing and boca have now lost 4 in a row on the road with a goal difference of 1-14.. the motivation factor is going to be higher in the copa libertadores game but you can catch newell's at 1,96 on betfair atm and i'm gonna be all over that one before the line moves down..

Game turned out to be a low-scoring, nervy affair.. let the run continue

Overall: 9-15 --- Net: -4,31 units

Icelandic premier league:

KR-Breiðablik

Under 2,5 goals @ 2,4 (1 unit)
Draw or Breiðablik @ 2 (1 unit)

KR are a bit overpriced here imo, think Manchester united vs Arsenal... it's going to be a pretty even match and KR are probably not going to win this one at the frequency that they need to warrent their low odds.. these are 2 teams capable of scoring goals but the importance of the match makes me like under 2,5 goals at odds of 2,4

why do you think so?
KR has been one of the two best (with Hafnjarfördur) teams in the league for several consecutive years.

a bit of a sweat till the end as KR equalized in the 65th minute and Breiðablik could have knicked it a couple of times near the end, including a shot that hit the post in injury time but i feel the analysis was pretty on point

Overall: 11-15 -- Net: -1,91 Units

KR and FH will probably tussle it out again for the title but Breiðablik has always been mentioned in that context as well as a sort of 'dark horse', they have a nice mixture of a couple of young dynamic players who will very likely play for the national team at some point and a couple of veterans namely the goalie Gunnleifur Gunnleifsson who played for FH's title winning team last year and has recently been the national team Goalie.. Breiðablik have been sort of a wildcard in the first rounds but their quality has shone through on numerous occasions and they were very unlucky to lose to FH last weekend, botching a penalty in injury time.. i think the odds listed on betfair were 1,98 for KR when i made the bet which has a breakeven point of 50% so as i said, KR were more likely but i feel the encounter was always going to be closer than the listed odds

edit: as a sidenote, it can't be forgotten that breiðablik won the cup in 2009 and won the title a year later.. their has been somewhat of an exodus since the title winning team of 2010 but they finished second last year (2012) so this team is still no minnow

Brazil tonight
Atletico PR - Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro @ 2,58 (0,5 unit)

Botafogo - santos
Draw @ 3,8 (0,5 units)

Goias - corinthians
Under 2,5 @ 1,85 (1,2 units)

Bahia - coritiba
Coritiba @ 2,68 (0,5 units)

Nautico - vitoria
Nautico @ 2,16 (0,75 units)

Copa libertadores
Newells - boca

Newells @ 1,97 (4 units)

Italy

Empoli - livorno

Under 2,5 goals @ 1,85 (1,2 units)

bad day, not too unhappy with the picks in hindsight... newell's were 11 vs 10 the last 30 minutes but failed to net the winner against boca but i still think that the newell's play was great value at almost even money

this is probably going to be a difficult challenge to turn a profit this summer, can't wait till european leagues start up again

Overall: 13-20 --- Net: -6,12 units

Sweden

Djurgarden - kalmar
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,85 (1,2 units)

Norrkoping - AIK
Over 2,5 goals @ 1,96 (2 units)

Going to just stay with goal markets for the moment in the summer leagues, been researching them but don't feel confident enough handicapping them to believe i can consistently find value on 1x2, much easier to spot value in the under/over 2,5 markets

Overall: 14-21 - W-Ratio: 40% - Net: -7,1 units

added:

Brazil

Internacional - Criciuma

Under 2,5 goals @ 2,08 (1 unit)

Overall 15-21 - W-Ratio: 41,66% - Net: -6,02 units

France

Evian - bordeaux
Under 2,5 goals @ 1,75 (1,5 units)

Sweden

Osters - goteborg
Goteborg @ 2,06 (1 unit)

Overall: 15-23 - W-Ratio: 39,47% - Net: -8,52 units

Argentina tonight:

Quilmes - Racing Club

Quilmes @ 1,59 (3 units)

the odds are completely out of whack with regard to the quality of the teams and i found out why. I understand that the motivation is absolutely 100% on the side of Quilmes, relegation threatend and playing at home, Quilmes have to win. Racing Club have absolutely nothing to play for but actually have an incentive to lose, it has been reported that the players have been receiving death threats from their own fans telling them to lose so that their fierce local rivals independiente will get relegated... bizarre situation and i really don't know how much can be made out of all of this so i'm just going to go with 3 units although i kind of want to go really big on this one.. if this information is true and at the very least in the back of Racing Club players' minds i think Quilmes are going to come out with the win at a huge frequency. I'm really curious to see how this plays out.