The line seemed way off in Regg/Grosetto FT result so managed to get a small bet on Grosetto @ 4.9
My picks for today:
Stoke V Fulham @ 2.86
Ancona V Triestina @ 1.95
Ancona HT V Triestina @ 2.7
>2.5gls Ancona V Triestina @ 2.36
Empoli V Sassuolo @ 2.14
Empoli HT V Sassuolo @ 2.92
>1.5gls Empoli V Sassuolo @ 1.45
>2.5gls Empoli V Sassuolo @ 2.32
>3.5gls Empoli V Sassuolo @ 4.4
>4.5gls Empoli V Sassuolo @ 10
Frosinone V Ascoli @ 2.24
Frosinone HT V Ascoli @ 2.94
>2.5gls Frosinone V Ascoli @ 2.18
>1.5gls Lecce V Vicenza @ 1.43
>2.5gls Lecce V Vicenza @ 2.36
Grosseto V Reggina @ 4.9
>2.5gls Grosseto V Reggina @ 2.06
Salernitana V Brescia @ 3.25
<1.5gls Salernitana V Brescia @ 3.05
<2.5gls Salernitana V Brescia @ 1.67
Barcelona V Sevilla @ 1.45
Barcelona HT V Sevilla @ 1.98
>1.5gls Barcelona V Sevilla @ 1.25
>2.5gls Barcelona V Sevilla @ 1.75
>3.5gls Barcelona V Sevilla @ 2.9
>4.5gls Barcelona V Sevilla @ 5.3

Ouch frosinone 5-0 down

Poor start 5 for 16 on the early games

Just put £400 @ 1.91 on Fulham (draw no bet).

Meaning that if they draw I get my stake back, and if Fulham win I get my stake back plus profit.

Stoke up 1-0

Stoke 1-0 up good start huuuuuuuth

Take it easy mate.

When I'm talking about me being a noob, I'm talking about hedging bets etc.

I have alot of experience with just basic football betting.

I wouldn't be betting £400 if the loss would affect me in any way.


Meantime Fulham down 3-0. Guess I should have known better than to bet against Stoke @ the Britannia on a snowy Tuesday night.

wow now 3-2 with over 5 mins of normal time left.

Come on Fulham.

pretty poor nights betting for me.

Ouch!
Next time you can ship the monnies to my acc instead

Barca was my "ouch" for today :s

Regards
A234

06/01:

Havent really looked at the Arsenal game yet - not sure what I like yet. Will probably put something on later on though.

I quite like:

Sienna vs Fiorentina @2.20

I think the Arsenal FT price is about right though there is some value in Arsenal HT @ 1.65. Bolton defense away from home is extremely poor conceding 0.10 gpg more than the average and vs opponents scoring 0.33 gpg less than average.
imo Bolton are a worse team than their(already bad) league position would suggest.

I'm not sure how the weather will affect play in this game. The effects(or lack thereof) of different weather conditions on play is an interesting concept(for me anyway). I'm going to create a database of premier league games from the last 5 years or so and include historical weather conditions/temperatures(which i'm sure are available somewhere) and see what the results bring.

My results for the premier league have been good but for all other leagues have been poor. It occurred to me last night that I've been running the non-premier league games through my premier league simulator and thus producing skewed results. duh loltard!

my picks for this game:
Arsenal HT @ 1.65
>1.5gls @ 1.22
>2.5gls @ 1.68
>3.5gls @ 2.72
>4.5gls @ 5

Hey Thorntoc.

I'm a poker-poster, not into sports betting, and have no desire to cos I know very little about football. But, I'm just curious, do you bet on all of the 5 outcomes you've listed above? Also, do sports bettors apply the kelly criterion or any other sort of bankroll management? I go by the "no more the 5% of my roll on any one poker game", was wondering if you guys do something similar?

Cheers.

Yes i bet all of the picks listed though not equal stakes. The stakes are weighted towards the more likely outcome.
stakes are usually something like this( though it depends on the game)
FT or HT result 1-4u
>1.5gls 4u
>2.5gls 2.5u
>3.5gls 1u
>4.5gls 0.5u

Bankroll management = very important just like poker

Very interesting.

Thanks for replying, and hope you continue to pick well.

N1 Fiorentina 5-1 winners

Genoa missing 2 def tonight
my picks:
AC Milan V Genoa @ 1.61
AC Milan HT @ 2.24
>1.5gls @ 1.31
>2.5gls @ 1.95

looking good so far with ACMilan 2-1 Genoa @ HT
won all the bets bar the match result
one more:
Rec de Huelva v Atl Madrid
<2.5gls @ 1.8

4 for 5 tonight

Even if Getafe rest 1 or 2 players today for their weekend fixture I still make them favourites over Malaga.
My picks:
Getafe V Malaga @ 2.7
Getafe HT V Malaga @ 3.6
<1.5gls Malaga V Getafe @ 3.55
<2.5gls Malaga V Getafe @ 1.84
<3.5gls Malaga V Getafe @ 1.31
<4.5gls Malaga V Getafe @ 1.12

Sub-Topic:

When using BRM, what kind of 'cashing-out goals' do people set themselves here? Like, after every X units made, you cash out a fraction of X... or do you just make the standard "1 unit" wager bigger after each BR target achieved?

It's similar to poker in that respect i.e. I'm rolled for the next level up do I cash out some or do I start playing the next level?
as long as you don't cash out so much that you have to reduce your bet sizes I don't think it matters

Betfair has a specials market on premier league weekend(Sat/Sun/Mon) game postponements.

Book is currently 113% Back-Lay 86.5%
so likely no value yet till the liquidity fills up.

Zero Games @ 5.5

1 - 2 Games @ 3.45

3 Games or more @ 1.52

fixtures:
Sat
12:45 GMT Hull - Chelsea
15:00 GMT Arsenal - Everton
15:00 GMT Burnley - Stoke
15:00 GMT Fulham - Portsmouth
15:00 GMT Sunderland - Bolton
15:00 GMT Wigan - Aston Villa
17:30 GMT Birmingham - Man Utd
Sun
13:30 GMT West Ham - Wolves
16:00 GMT Liverpool - Tottenham
Mon
20:00 GMT Man City - Blackburn

thoughts guys?

thorn, what you think about the other spanish cup games,
mallorca looks good value, good run and 4th in the league