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Old 01-04-2010, 08:23 AM   #451
thorntoc
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Thoughts on Partick T. V Morton. Any like something dif here?
Morton missing 1 def 2 mid from an already poor team. PT awaiting new player but otherwise full strength.

Partick T. V Morton @ 1.62
Partick T. HT V Morton @ 2.14
>1.5gls PT V Mort @ 1.3
>2.5gls PT V Mort @ 1.92
>3.5gls PT V Mort @ 3.3
>4.5gls PT V Mort @ 6.8
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Old 01-04-2010, 09:50 AM   #452
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorntoc View Post
Thoughts on Partick T. V Morton. Any like something dif here?
Morton missing 1 def 2 mid from an already poor team. PT awaiting new player but otherwise full strength.

Partick T. V Morton @ 1.62
Partick T. HT V Morton @ 2.14
>1.5gls PT V Mort @ 1.3
>2.5gls PT V Mort @ 1.92
>3.5gls PT V Mort @ 3.3
>4.5gls PT V Mort @ 6.8
Should be easy Partick win. I actually quite fancy them to upset Dundee United in the Scottish Cup this weekend also.

I would suggest you get rid of these highlighted overs from your football betting and save yourself some money though thorntoc
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Old 01-04-2010, 12:27 PM   #453
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
I would suggest you get rid of these highlighted overs from your football betting and save yourself some money though thorntoc
Why so Gazo?
You prob know all this already
Morton have the league's worst defensive record away from home at 26 goals conceded in 10 games and this is vs teams scoring 0.07 less goals per game than the league average.
Partick are scoring well above average(+0.32) at home and against teams conceding just below average gpg
Morton's attack is mediocre but there def is so weak that they can't really push forward and attack. Their only real option imo is to play 11 men behind the ball and hope for a 0-0,1-1 though even if they sacrificed any kind of attacking threat(unlikely) I would still expect them to concede a goal(possibly 2).
PT have strong defense also. They can push forward,play attacking football as they have little to worry about on the defensive end.
I have expected goals in the range of 0-1 for Morton and 2-5 for PT.

Obviously my bets are weighted toward the more likely events though imho all the overs are +ev
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Old 01-04-2010, 02:48 PM   #454
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

thorntoc i didnt get the o/u bets my bf acc doesent work atm :s

the HT is @ 2.2 on bwin.

Regards
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Old 01-04-2010, 03:28 PM   #455
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

04/01/2010 Single (To win) 1 450.00 Partick vs Morton

Match betting Partick Thistle 8/13
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Old 01-04-2010, 03:35 PM   #456
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Anyone like Villa @ 11/8 away at Blackburn tomorrow?
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Old 01-04-2010, 03:47 PM   #457
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by A234 View Post
thorntoc i didnt get the o/u bets my bf acc doesent work atm :s

the HT is @ 2.2 on bwin.

Regards
A234
Hills does the o/u bets. they go from 0.5gls up to 5.5gls
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Old 01-04-2010, 04:40 PM   #458
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

HT 0-0.........
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Old 01-04-2010, 04:59 PM   #459
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_snail03 View Post
Anyone like Villa @ 11/8 away at Blackburn tomorrow?
Yes. I like Villa @ 2.35+ also Villa HT @ 2.9+

You can get Villa @ 2.6 on BF currently
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:12 PM   #460
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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HT 0-0.........
:<

jep, i usually have o/us too, but as said my bf acc didnt work somehow...
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:19 PM   #461
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Partick up 1-0
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:20 PM   #462
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

As I'm a bit of a noob with regard to smart betting, would it be a good idea to put some on a draw now, as I have 450 on Partick to win @ 8/13. Can get the draw for around 6-1.


Any advice appreciated.
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:22 PM   #463
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_snail03 View Post
As I'm a bit of a noob with regard to smart betting, would it be a good idea to put some on a draw now, as I have 450 on Partick to win @ 8/13. Can get the draw for around 6-1.


Any advice appreciated.
PT just scored Cairney 74mins
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:25 PM   #464
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yeah I know lol, now that they are head I was talking about putting some on a draw so I basically guarantee myself that I don't lose anything.

I just put around 70 on a draw @ 11/2.
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:31 PM   #465
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I'd prob just let it ride out
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:39 PM   #466
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

FT 1-0
1 for 6 on that one
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Old 01-04-2010, 08:38 PM   #467
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorntoc View Post
FT 1-0
1 for 6 on that one
same here

Any picks for 2morrow?
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Old 01-04-2010, 09:40 PM   #468
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

05/01:

Cant decide what to take for the Stoke vs Fulham game. The under line at 1.62 looked too low given recent games, but looks right when comparing past matches between these two. Decided to leave out a bet on the game - can't decide what I like. Fulham have a few doubtfuls and injuries so may not be as solid at the back as usual. Theyve also got Zamora on form... eh, I'm skipping this one.

I really liked the Fulham to score a goal @1.40 on Boylesports... but I'd rather save what units I'd have put on this game and add them onto another game I feel more comfortable with.

My pick is:

Blackburn vs Aston Villa @2.50
Both teams are likely to recall their 'strong' players given how late each team have come in this competition. Aston Villa look the better side and will be wanting to get some silverware this season - this is their best shot imo. Likely to be recalling Dunne, Milner and Agbonlahor to the starting line-up whilst Diouf is banned for his red card on Saturday.
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Old 01-04-2010, 09:42 PM   #469
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
I would suggest you get rid of these highlighted overs from your football betting and save yourself some money though thorntoc
+1
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Old 01-04-2010, 09:52 PM   #470
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by the_snail03 View Post
I have ??? on Partick to win @ 8/13
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_snail03 View Post
I just put around ??? on a draw @ 11/2.
I'm no professional or anything, but in my opinion, hedging your bet half-way through a game is generally not a very good idea. You're trying to guarantee a return on something that cannot be guaranteed.
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Old 01-04-2010, 10:42 PM   #471
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
I'm no professional or anything, but in my opinion, hedging your bet half-way through a game is generally not a very good idea. You're trying to guarantee a return on something that cannot be guaranteed.
I think your mistaken mate.

I put the draw on after Partick had took the lead at around 75mins.

So basically I was just covering my own arse if Morton happened to nick one in the last 15mins. Virtually guaranteeing myself of a return of my original bet even if Partick didn't win.
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Old 01-04-2010, 10:58 PM   #472
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Oh, my bad then - didn't know that.
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Old 01-05-2010, 05:43 AM   #473
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by A234 View Post
same here

Any picks for 2morrow?
Bout time variance caught up with me, I'd been running well of late

No more picks yet just the Villa HT & Villa FT picks I stated last night. Not looked at any other games yet ill prob bet on the stoke/fulham game also a ton of Serie B games today and the copa del rey clash between Barca and Sevilla looks interesting
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:08 AM   #474
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I like Stoke @ anything over 2.5. Plus there's the added bonus that Hangeland may not play. The over/unders seem pretty spot on, though as the market changes i'll take <1.5gls at 3.1 or better(currently swinging between 3-3.05)
my picks so far:
Aston Villa V Blackburn @ 2.6
Aston Villa HT V Blackburn @ 3.4
Stoke V Fulham @ 2.86
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:34 AM   #475
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Blac/Villa game postponed due to weather
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