But shouldn't the market know all this? It seems that either the market is as "efficient" as always, or it is not, in which case there is value to be taken. The key would then be to figure out in which way these matches differ from regular ones...

There's no reason you shouldn't bet on friendlies if you think you can evaluate the game better than others.

Plenty of bets I like the look of tomorrow. Man Utd & Fulham both seem like good value for straight win bets, Liverpool Wigan I like under 2.5 goals, Man City to win to nil at evens is probably the best value of the day IMO.

Thoughts?

Although it didnt went good. My thoughts were, Man u, fullham, liv-wigan under 2.5 too. So we're pretty much thinking the same

Haha well that set of bets was awful, Man City covered it a bit

Couldn't have gone much worse. United were poor and Fulham got a player sent off so we'll let you off.

Next weeks tips.

Manchester City away win @ Chelsea.
Manchester City v Real Madrid over 2/3.5 goals

Not to ruin your fun but it is super unlikely you can make money by betting on incredibly popular teams like Man Utd and Man City. While in itself it's no guarantee of profitablility, pretty much the first qualifying criterion for a good bet is that it goes against what most people would like to bet. Betting a huge team like Man Utd away to a small-market team that have had a bad start to the season like Norwich is virtually guaranteed to be -EV.

Yeah, even as a Sunderland fan I thought we were destined to lose at Fulham but Hangeland's dismissal certainly changed the game.

Forgot to post earlier, but my picks for tonight.

All 1u plays.

1 BATE Borisov Half Time, BATE Borisov v Lille, 2.75 Loss
2 Over 3.5, Spartak Moscow v Barcelona, 2.025
3 Spartak Moscow DNB, Spartak Moscow v Barcelona, 9.00
4 Draw, Juventus v Chelsea, 3.80
5 1st half Over 1.5, Juventus v Chelsea, 2.50
6 Valencia, Valencia v Bayern Munich, 3.60
7 2nd Half with most goals, Valencia v Bayern Munich, 2.00
8 Celtic DNB, Benfica v Celtic, 5.50
9 Under 2.5, Benfica v Celtic, 2.05
10 Galatasaray, Galatasaray v Man Utd, 2.00
11 Galatasaray Half Time, Galatasaray v Man Utd, 2.60

Boy that wasn't a good day for you thalo ^^

Today's match in the CL:

Zenit - Malaga, Malaga @4.75
Anderlecht - AC Milan, under 2.5 @1.75
Anderlecht - AC Milan, Draw @3.4
Ajax - Borussia Dortmund, Over 2.5 @1.6
FC Porto - Dinamo Zagreb, FC Porto to clean sheet @1.53

Thoughts?

Was a shocker... A lot was value stuff, but Barca/BATE/Gala all let me down.
Will give my 2c, but as you saw above, what do I know.

Bit late to comment on Malaga now, but I think they are a hugely underrated team, and at 4.75 an easy lock.

I refuse to bet on Milan, being mainly a Serie A supporter, they have been unpredictable, unreliable and inconsistent so far this season.

The over there is tight imo, 1.6 seems a little short.

And if Porto concede, it will come from an OG or penalty, think that is printing money really.

Once again I've stopped betting cup games, sticking to Serie A and the A-League. Cups are good for throwing away $20 hoping your 50-1 parley comes in.

EPL
Sunderland v WBA - WBA DNB, 2.10, 1u - WBA in hot form and look good value here.

A League
Perth Glory v Wellington Pheonix - Under 2.5, 1.925, 1u - Raining, thunderstorms and lightning 10 minutes before kick off. Will be a sloppy pitch and ball will be difficult to predict and control.

GOOOD MORNING!!!!!

Total Football noob so I receive free tips, etc. I often check in on them though and today I received a tip that had the following line:

pk, -.5 -112

The other line available was -.5 +120

I understand the asian odds and you are betting 2 separate lines but in this instance it would seem you are betting 32 points of juice in case of a draw?

I know draws are common place in soccer...wait yea so I think I just answered my own question.

Is 32 points = half wager back if draw? I assume this has a lot to do with the matchup?

It was tense, but both got there.

Thanks to Mike "worst referee in the world" Dean

(Joking aside, West Brom were a good bet)

Yeah, I was on WBA earlier too - should have posted. Was 2/1 for straight win

Arsenal look good value v Aston Villa later for the straight win

Should be tight, will be watching anyway, Walcott out for Gunners, Villa fresh of a 5 - nil thumping should be playing with plenty of heart. With Villa at home, I think I might lay 0.5u on a Villa DNB at 3.40. They are a team that don't travel well but play a different game at home. They managed to give United a scare a couple of week ago.

Your DNB came in, I had U2.5 goals which came in too.

Got a fair bit on my team Swansea tomorrow:

O3.5 match cards
BTTS
Swansea win
O2.5 goals

Waiting for a first minute red card, 3-1 win for Swansea and a last minute red card. Easy!

Sparta Rotterdam match tomorrow in Juplier League (Holland 2nd div) looks good value for O2.5.

Need some help with Draw No Bet.

Odds for the match are:

1: 3.75
X: 3.25
3: 2.05

DNB: 1.44

Assuming the lines are perfect if you take 1.33% off each of them (vig is 4% I think) is DNB profitable? Can't figure out how to do the maths

And a general question without the maths - is betting DNB instead of straight win going to be giving up equity always?

Not profitable no. DNB vig free would be 1.55 and 2.83.

It's not always giving up equity no.

How did you work out that out?

There is a draw no bet calculator here. Assuming 4% commission on those 1x2 lines you posted, an implied price of 1.59 for the DNB on team 2 is achievable by betting win and draw in the correct proportions. To use the calculator, enter the odds and commission, then click the radio button on "Total Stake", enter the amount you want to bet on DNB, and click calculate.

In general DNB is a sucker line for people who don't understand Asian handicaps. An Asian handicap of +0 is the same as betting DNB and usually available at better odds. At decent books like Pinnacle the +0 AH is usually the same price you would get by betting win and draw on the 1x2 line, but occasionally it is worse. And frequently better prices than the AH lines are available by betting win and draw at different books, so it always pays to check.

Try working it out here and someone will talk you through any mistakes. Better than someone just telling you.

The calculator is a big help - I did some attempts at simple calcs and they came no where near. A bit like my Swansea v Liverpool bets haha. At least I had no goal before 27 minutes which saved some of it.

Think I'm going to avoid Premier League for a while and focus on some European leagues.

Can't even get my head around the calculator. Can someone help?

I want to bet Southampton to beat Liverpool. Odds are:

Liverpool win: 1.36
Draw: 4.5
Southampton: 7

I want to bet £10. So I put it in like this:



It says the implied DNB price is 5.44. Bet365 don't take any commission right? But they offer DNB at 6.00 - which is worse than the implied price?