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Old 11-10-2012, 12:38 PM   #4676
frikkiw40
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

yeah not surprised at all, fellaini is on fire
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Old 11-11-2012, 08:14 AM   #4677
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Any value in either of the games today?
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Old 11-11-2012, 10:01 AM   #4678
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I have a six-team parlay which all rests on Newcastle today (and I'm a Sunderland fan )

3 on Everton, Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace, Tranmere, Yeovil and Newcastle pays 175.

How much to hedge?
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Old 11-11-2012, 10:09 AM   #4679
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

mackem, up to you - it's obv -EV so it depends how much you need the money basically
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Old 11-11-2012, 04:48 PM   #4680
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Newcastle 0 West Ham 1

Typical scum *****.
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Old 11-11-2012, 06:16 PM   #4681
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

lol.

anyway, anyone watching real madrid match? pitch is awful, should have been called off. bit better in 2nd half but still terrible. Got Real at 11/8 to win at 1-1 with 20 mins to go, few minutes to hold on
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Old 11-12-2012, 06:59 AM   #4682
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

That pitch was a joke.
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:24 AM   #4683
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mackem790 View Post
I have a six-team parlay which all rests on Newcastle today (and I'm a Sunderland fan )

3 on Everton, Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace, Tranmere, Yeovil and Newcastle pays 175.

How much to hedge?
Why include Newcastle in the bet, if you know you are gonna hedge anyway?
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:25 AM   #4684
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Wrong thread (didn't wanna start a new), but does anyone know if Betfair quote the same odds online as on their mobile app? It noticed several times yesterday (after refreshing both) that the odds weren't the same. Just wanna know, if there's a bias in one direction that I should be aware of?
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Old 11-12-2012, 09:10 AM   #4685
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Why include Newcastle in the bet, if you know you are gonna hedge anyway?
Huh?
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Old 11-12-2012, 09:22 AM   #4686
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Doing a 6 team accumulator with one playing a day later than the others is stupid if you are planning on hedging if the first 5 win.

Just do a 5 team on the Saturday teams instead of paying rake twice.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:45 AM   #4687
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Originally Posted by PNHH View Post
Wrong thread (didn't wanna start a new), but does anyone know if Betfair quote the same odds online as on their mobile app? It noticed several times yesterday (after refreshing both) that the odds weren't the same. Just wanna know, if there's a bias in one direction that I should be aware of?
Is one showing odds after commission or something?
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:47 PM   #4688
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Nope, they are just showing two different (although pretty similar) "markets". It's weird.
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Old 11-12-2012, 03:02 PM   #4689
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onitsuka View Post
Doing a 6 team accumulator with one playing a day later than the others is stupid if you are planning on hedging if the first 5 win.

Just do a 5 team on the Saturday teams instead of paying rake twice.
Paying rake?
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Old 11-12-2012, 05:03 PM   #4690
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Paying rake?
The odds quoted have in implicit rake.


_ _ _ _

Does anyone know if it's possible to get historical Betfair (live) odds? Would like to see how different lines moved during time.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:38 PM   #4691
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

http://data.betfair.com/
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Old 11-13-2012, 05:57 AM   #4692
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Paying rake?
Sigh dont know why I'm going to spoon feed this to you but.....

You put on 5 teams to win in an accumulator. Prices 1.83, 1.91, 2.1, 2, 1.95.
You get 28.63 total on it and put $10 on to win. Returns 286.3 if it wins (276.3 profit)

You put on a 6 team accumulator with the 5 previous selections and a game the next day priced at 1.95.
You get 55.82 total and put $10 on it. Now the first 5 win and you are left waiting on the final game. You can hedge the final game by backing the opponents at 1.95 (if soccer in a AH +0.5 market). So now you are waiting on 558.20 if they win so you have to back the opponents with 286.26 to guarantee an even payout regardless of what happens.

So you win 558.20 either way, but now you have put on 286.26 and 10 on your two bets so your profit is going to be 558.20-286.26-10 = 261.94

Two mistakes with doing it the second way, you are obviously costing yourself 276.3-261.94 = 14.36 but you also have to have 286.26 available and tied up in doing the hedge which is pointless.

You may say well you dont fully hedge and just back the opponent enough to give you your money back or something. But even then you'd still be better off with the original 5 team accumulator paying out and putting a single bet to your liking on the next team.
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Old 11-13-2012, 12:49 PM   #4693
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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thx
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Old 11-13-2012, 03:18 PM   #4694
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Any thoughts on Hinckley match tonight? They're doing **** in the league, are fighting off-field problems, got hammered by the team they're playing in the cup 5-0 last time they played, and Gainsborough -1 are evens :s

Match is Conference North fwiw
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Old 11-13-2012, 05:45 PM   #4695
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Was FA Trophy but no bother, bet -1, -1.5 and -2.5 (at 4/1) and they won 4-1
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:29 AM   #4696
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Consensus regarding international friendlies: more or less value on average? I'm unsure how much the lines incorporate the fact that the teams don't have to win and will be making a lot of subs.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:46 AM   #4697
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Consensus regarding international friendlies: more or less value on average? I'm unsure how much the lines incorporate the fact that the teams don't have to win and will be making a lot of subs.
Personally I avoid them like the plague unless there is still a big discrepency between the standard of the teams.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:17 PM   #4698
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Don't bet on friendlies.
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Old 11-16-2012, 12:55 PM   #4699
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Indeed dont bet on friendlies unless you want to bet the underdogs maybe.

Anybody interested in starting a thread on the barclays premier league? Or posting their picks here.
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Old 11-16-2012, 01:43 PM   #4700
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I'll be making my picks later and will post them up
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