I missed most of the earlier games today. However, I did manage to get on ManCity(vs Wolves) @ 2 and ManCity HT @ 2.64. My model has anything above 1.88 as +ev for the final result and 2.42+ for HT.

Just briefly looked at the Newc V Derby match. looks almost like a foregone conclusion

where was that available?

Betfair at bout 4pm(GMT) yesterday. It was at 2.02 but I just missed out and had to take 2. It then proceeded to drop rapidly and closed around 1.89 at KO

Saw both the Man City games after Mancini took over and I think there's a fair bit of money to be won by betting on City to keep a clean sheet or to win to nil etc. from now on.

29/12 games:

aston villa vs liverpool DRAW @3.25
liverpool playing poorly (especially away from home) and aston villa looking solid at the back. their 3-0 loss against arsenal was not as bad as the scoreline suggests - it was a pretty even match for most of the game imo. with hesky and young out, i cant really see many goals going in here. might be worth taking the under2.5 goals line too.

aston villa vs liverpool exact score 0:0 @7.00
past games between these two have always been tight. i think with aston villa coming off the back of a 3-0 loss to a big club, theyll want to show that they can 'mix with the big boys' and i think theyll rreally tighten up at the back this game. liverpool had absolutely nothing going for them upfront vs portsmouth and needed to have a player sent off vs wolves to shift the game in their favour. i predict a stalemate - neither team wants to lose.

bolton vs hull @1.80
hul have a shocking away form and bolton have been scoring pretty well at home recently. near-bottom of the table clash and i think bolton have the determination/guts/drive/whatever you want to call it to grind out a good result here.

Yeah I like a big bet on Bolton tonight. I always look at the table and think where the f did they get their points from to be safe from relegation every year, it's games like this i guess. Decent price imo.

The summation of my bets for tonight's Premier League.
Aston Villa V Liverpool @ 3.3
Aston Villa HT V Liverpool @ 4
<1.5gls AstonVilla V Liverpool @ 3.3
<2.5gls AstonVilla V Liverpool @ 1.75
<3.5gls AstonVilla V Liverpool @ 1.3
Bolton V Hull @ 1.82
Bolton HT V Hull @ 2.56
>1.5gls Bolton V Hull @ 1.37
>2.5gls Bolton V Hull @ 2.08
>3.5gls Bolton V Hull @ 3.95
>4.5gls Bolton V Hull @ 8.6

really like this.

If the match result is +ev there's often a sh*tload of ev in HT result market also.

I agree with you guys on the Bolton/Hull high scoring and Villa/Liv low scoring comments. though you can tell that from my picks

1-0 Bolton
Klasnic 20mins .......... so far so good

2-2

very frustrating - was incredibly close with the 0-0 and draw, but i think in hindsight the under2.5 would have been the safer bet (instead of a draw).

bolton gave away a 2 goal lead so meh... thanks to thorntoc i clawed back some units with bolton to win at HT.

30/12 games

portsmouth vs arsenal under 2.5 goals @1.95

manchester united vs wigan man united to be winning at HT @1.60


then ive got an accumulator (fingers crossed) on:

@3.47
portsmouth vs arsenal
manchester united vs wigan
rangers vs dundee
anderlecht vs zulte

that was so close. The result in that game (Ast/Liv) was polarized to 0-0,0-1,1-0,1-1 imho. I shoulda 'dutched' those scorelines.

my picks for today so far
Arsenal HT V Portsmouth @ 2.26
>1.5gls Portsmouth V Arsenal @ 1.3
>2.5gls Portsmouth V Arsenal @ 1.93
>3.5gls Portsmouth V Arsenal @ 3.35
>4.5gls Portsmouth V Arsenal @ 6.8

Couldn't see any value in a straight arsenal FT bet, my model has them @ 1.63 and currently available @ 1.56 on BF. HT i've got em as value @ 2.02 or better so went for that one. Also there's some value in backing Portsmouth FT (currently @7.2 on BF) imo though it would be counter-intuitive to take that bet and the Arsenal HT so I just went for the lower variance option in Arsenal HT.

I like the over in this one (sorry aao). I'll have a look at the other games later
GL all

The rest of my picks
MU V Wigan @ 1.23
MU HT V Wigan @ 1.61
>1.5gls MU V Wigan @ 1.21
>2.5gls MU V Wigan @ 1.69
>3.5gls MU V Wigan @ 2.62
>4.5gls MU V Wigan @ 5
Rangers HT V Dundee Utd @ 1.84
>1.5gls Rangers V Dundee Utd @ 1.22
>2.5gls Rangers V Dundee Utd @ 1.74
>3.5gls Rangers V Dundee Utd @ 2.8
>4.5gls Rangers V Dundee Utd @ 5.3

the BF price for Rangers FT @ 1.35 is spot-on imo. Some value in the Rangers @ HT market though at anything above 1.73. imho

I picked this because of the past scores between these teams. The last 6 matches at Fratton Park between Portsmouth and Arsenal have ended 0-3, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-1.

Portsmouth have a few (4?) players out due to the African Cup and Arsenal were nothing against Villa until Fabregas came on and saved the day. He's injured so maybe Portsmouth will park the bus?

Good luck.

I'm interested to hear about your over/under system though... how many units do you place on each bet? I presume it's top heavy?

The Africans are playing and fabregas could possibly still play. This is according to the BBC.
With the over/under as you correctly said the bet sizes are weighted towards the prob of goals being scored ie over1.5 has the largest bet and over4.5 is the smallest and vice versa with unders. Often if there's value in one over/under there's value in the others. so I prefer to spread the bet out rather than say 5 units on >2.5 l prefer to spread it out as long as other overunder markets are +ev

great results tonight
16 out of 16 for me.

aao hit the accumulator also
n1!

yup, had more wagered on man utd HT, but well done with the arsenal over pick.

happy i hit my accumulator hehe. id be up so much this xmas period if the bolton and villa/pool picks came in as well lol.

If you'd hit that as an accumulator, for a 10 pound bet, you'd now be 1/2 million pounds richer. Though obv. impossible.

accumulator as in 'over 1.5' x 'over 2.5' x 'over 3.5'?

Thus the clause contained in the second sentence. Plus obv. you can't bet +1.5 and HT result.

yeah most of the picks where somewhat 'linked' together so an accumulator was impossible.

02/01 games:

middlesbrough vs man city @1.62
middlesbrough vs man city 2 to win to nil @2.65
everton vs carlisle @11.00
everton vs carlisle DC on X or 2 @3.67

accumulators on:

@4.57
aston villa vs blackburn
stoke vs york
fulham vs swansea
portsmouth vs coventry

@2.59
reading vs liverpool
wigan vs hull

no idea what that Carlisle bet is all about, but good luck