Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-09-2012, 07:02 PM   #3926
jp1444
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 850
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
whenever football-data.co.uk updates their results file ill run my monte carlo and put up top 4 probabilities. what are the odds for newcastle? spurs been in poor form but their remaining fixtures are somewhat easier than newcastle who have to play city and chelsea
ars @1.08
spurs @1.62
chels @3.5
newc @4.5
jp1444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 07:34 PM   #3927
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
ytd: +20.147


Sunderland +.5 @1.962L
Newcastle Win @1.595W
Norwich Win @10.18W
Fulham Win @3.62L

Sunderland, Everton U2.5 @1.741L
Norwich, Tottenham U3.5 @1.73W
Stoke, Villa U2.5 @1.676W
Fulham, Chelsea U2.5@1.971W
today: 5-3 +9.152u
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u

ill get back to you guys about liverpool/blackburn and top 4 as soon as i can
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 08:36 PM   #3928
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

the site ive been stripping remaining fixtures from is messing up. anyone have another site that lists all remaining fixtures in one table?
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 09:08 PM   #3929
SMUTTTT
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SMUTTTT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7,126
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

might not be what ur looking for but i use this

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/pr...ewerb_GB1.html
SMUTTTT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 09:10 PM   #3930
SMUTTTT
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SMUTTTT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7,126
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

WBA vs City +1.75 @ 1.9 is good enough for me btw
SMUTTTT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 09:10 PM   #3931
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT View Post
might not be what ur looking for but i use this

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/pr...ewerb_GB1.html
thanks i actually found some other site and dealt with rewriting the code to strip and format the fixtures. if i did everything right ill have some predictions in 10 or 15
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 09:16 PM   #3932
DoesANice
centurion
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 168
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT View Post
WBA vs City +1.75 @ 1.9 is good enough for me btw
wba for the win @14 atm - very good price, think ima be laying the city win at least
DoesANice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2012, 11:02 PM   #3933
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by yeaFMLdegen View Post
@everyone

at what point/line for betting a liverpool win over blackburn becomes +ev?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jp1444 View Post
ars @1.08
spurs @1.62
chels @3.5
newc @4.5
finally fixed all my bugs. gonna throw out the relegation numbers again because they may have been affected by the issues i was having.
the numbers my model spits out are...

p(liverpool win) = 0.365405
p(blackburn win) = 0.362408
p(draw) = 0.272187

this means i still have liverpool as being overvalued and will be taking blackburn tomorrow (assuming no massive line move). pepe being out cant help them either. ill post the pick officially later tonight when i actually place it.

top 4s
gooners - .9807
spurs - .5762
chelsea - .2053
newcastle - .2378

relegation
Wolves - .9863
Wigan - .4708
Blackburn - .4647
QPR - .6268
Bolton - .44
Villa - .0112
WBA - .0002 lol

while im at it ill throw this out since theres been chatter in the thread
p(city win) = 0.741052
p(WBA win) = 0.091892
p(draw) = 0.167056

Last edited by sayhey69; 04-09-2012 at 11:07 PM.
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 01:16 AM   #3934
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
today: 5-3 +9.152u
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u
Blackburn Win @3.68
Blackburn, Pool U2' @1.962

gl
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 01:14 PM   #3935
SMUTTTT
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SMUTTTT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7,126
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Good job sayhey68, ty. Blackburn - Liverpool is not a game i wanna get involved in, ill stick to scotland div 1 for today and watch EPL for fun. GL, 3.65 seemed like a tad short at first glance but starting to think theres value at 3.5>~
SMUTTTT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 03:32 PM   #3936
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT View Post
Good job sayhey68, ty. Blackburn - Liverpool is not a game i wanna get involved in, ill stick to scotland div 1 for today and watch EPL for fun. GL, 3.65 seemed like a tad short at first glance but starting to think theres value at 3.5>~
it appears that not getting involved in this game would have been my best play as well
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 03:34 PM   #3937
TheVig
adept
 
TheVig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: It Ain't Easy
Posts: 940
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

What was that pk attempt Yak?
TheVig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 03:41 PM   #3938
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

always nice to lose the under with 10 minutes to go in the first half. just turned the game on. howd doni get sent off? yakubu missed a pen?
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 03:47 PM   #3939
TheVig
adept
 
TheVig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: It Ain't Easy
Posts: 940
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

It was god awful, he basically rolled it to the 3rd string keeper. Doni took out Hoilett in the box for the auto red card.
TheVig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 04:17 PM   #3940
yeaFMLdegen
grinder
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 555
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

lol that flanagan guy won't last long in football. he had a god awful game the other day now tonights horrific backpass which gets doni sent off
yeaFMLdegen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 04:51 PM   #3941
DMMx69
old hand
 
DMMx69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: This Mortal Coil
Posts: 1,680
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

2-2 in blackburn match , 90th minute.

what's with all the cards here? I hope no one had U9.5 cards.

Last edited by DMMx69; 04-10-2012 at 04:55 PM. Reason: ****. i jinxed this for sure.
DMMx69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 05:20 PM   #3942
SMUTTTT
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SMUTTTT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7,126
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

absolutely absurd game. like sayhey said any1s lucky not to be involved. maxi scored 2 goals within 18 min.
doni got sent off but it wasnt a giant mistake, hoilett was gonna score being 1v1 v doni.
yakubu made WOAT penalty, then 3rd keeper shoulda been sent off after the WOAT effort of saving a ball & kicking one right on yakubus legs i think it was, then a dece penalty. yakubu header from a free kick then a carroll later for 3ps so thats when u know its completely unpredictable
SMUTTTT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 06:14 PM   #3943
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u

Blackburn Win @3.68L
Blackburn, Pool U2' @1.962L
today: 0-2 -2u
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u

not exactly the kind of game i was expecting. im not sure how brad jones doesnt get sent off for essentially the same foul as doni. tbh i woulda been fine with doni just getting yellow and the pk but if youre gonna send him off dont you also have to send off jones
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 06:31 PM   #3944
Comfortably Nub
newbie
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: 7-high in a bloated pot.
Posts: 47
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

What can I add to that Blackburn - Liverpool debacle except, "LOL".
I played it Over 2,5G just to be contrary to sayhey69.

Uneasy about tomorrow's Serie A matches; got a single unit on Udinese winning in Rome @ 3.80, hoping Roma doesn't find its pair too soon. The rest of the lines suck and the bet is one of pure spite, fair warning.

Last edited by Comfortably Nub; 04-10-2012 at 06:34 PM. Reason: FAIR WARNING
Comfortably Nub is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 07:07 PM   #3945
jp1444
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 850
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
today: 0-2 -2u
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u

not exactly the kind of game i was expecting. im not sure how brad jones doesnt get sent off for essentially the same foul as doni. tbh i woulda been fine with doni just getting yellow and the pk but if youre gonna send him off dont you also have to send off jones
the difference is hoilett had a clear goalscoring opportunity when he got taken out by doni, in the 2nd scenario yak didnt, as he headed the ball away from goal...

loading up on the everton win/everton to qualify vs l'pool this weekend in the FA cup now, epc with jones in goal
jp1444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2012, 09:13 PM   #3946
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Comfortably Nub View Post
What can I add to that Blackburn - Liverpool debacle except, "LOL".
I played it Over 2,5G just to be contrary to sayhey69.

Uneasy about tomorrow's Serie A matches; got a single unit on Udinese winning in Rome @ 3.80, hoping Roma doesn't find its pair too soon. The rest of the lines suck and the bet is one of pure spite, fair warning.
fading my totals recently has been profitable. i think im back to break even on the year on those. good thing ive ran hot as tits on the other bets
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2012, 12:06 AM   #3947
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u
Wigan Win @9.12 risking .5u
Swansea Win @3.64

Swansea U2' @1.885

gl
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2012, 05:50 AM   #3948
OHaiSup
centurion
 
OHaiSup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: 47 , 9.47346 | 20 , 10.73556
Posts: 105
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
Wigan Win @9.12 risking .5u
hm? why? :0
OHaiSup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2012, 10:25 AM   #3949
sayhey69
adept
 
sayhey69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP
Posts: 832
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by OHaiSup View Post
hm? why? :0
wigans not as bad a team as their record shows and theyre playing well atm. they also have more to play for than united although i dont think saf will let united get lazy. its pretty marginal in the end esp at the current price.
sayhey69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2012, 10:58 AM   #3950
Paasei
grinder
 
Paasei's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 469
Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT View Post
absolutely absurd game. like sayhey said any1s lucky not to be involved. maxi scored 2 goals within 18 min.
doni got sent off but it wasnt a giant mistake, hoilett was gonna score being 1v1 v doni.
yakubu made WOAT penalty, then 3rd keeper shoulda been sent off after the WOAT effort of saving a ball & kicking one right on yakubus legs i think it was, then a dece penalty. yakubu header from a free kick then a carroll later for 3ps so thats when u know its completely unpredictable
Paasei is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:27 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive