Quote:
Originally Posted by yeaFMLdegen
@everyone
at what point/line for betting a liverpool win over blackburn becomes +ev?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jp1444
ars @1.08
spurs @1.62
chels @3.5
newc @4.5
finally fixed all my bugs. gonna throw out the relegation numbers again because they may have been affected by the issues i was having.
the numbers my model spits out are...
p(liverpool win) = 0.365405
p(blackburn win) = 0.362408
p(draw) = 0.272187
this means i still have liverpool as being overvalued and will be taking blackburn tomorrow (assuming no massive line move). pepe being out cant help them either. ill post the pick officially later tonight when i actually place it.
top 4s
gooners - .9807
spurs - .5762
chelsea - .2053
newcastle - .2378
relegation
Wolves - .9863
Wigan - .4708
Blackburn - .4647
QPR - .6268
Bolton - .44
Villa - .0112
WBA - .0002 lol
while im at it ill throw this out since theres been chatter in the thread
p(city win) = 0.741052
p(WBA win) = 0.091892
p(draw) = 0.167056
Last edited by sayhey69; 04-09-2012 at 11:07 PM.