Quote:
yeah, you're right.
as an aside, i have:
lens vs st. etienne @1.90 for today.
both are pretty low down the table so there is lots of motivation from both sides. lens are good at home, having beaten some top teams recently (marseille) and st. etienne are struggling away from home.
Awesome job! I hit both Lens AND Under 2 goals - the former, miraculously, the latter... I wish every bet was this easy.
Tonight I am looking at these three matchups...
Paris SG vs Grenoble
O.Lyon vs Montpellier
Marseille vs Auxerre
Top three teams in France for a while now (maybe with exception of PSG who still are 'champions at heart'..hmm ok), all playing home games to close out year 2009. As stats show, a home blowout is rather unlikely in this scenario and hasn't happened ONCE out of nine games.
PSG: 1 home draw, 1 away draw, 1 away win 1-0 (all opponents placed 5 to 18 that respective season)
Lyon: 1 home draw, 1 away draw, 1 away win 1-0 (all opponents placed 11 to 17 that respective season)
Marseille: 2 home wins (1-0 and 2-1) over 11th and 9th and
1 home loss 0-3 (!) to 15th placed Nancy last year
This tells me draws in all three fixtures are overpriced (4.2-4.35). Betting away team asian handicap (+1) might be a good idea too*
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*
Originally, I was looking for a reason to bet PSG and possibly lay Lyon, since their opposition (Grenoble and Montpellier, respectively) seem to be 'earth and heaven' - 7 points and 30 points, and both home favorites are priced the same, around 1.5. However, further inspection showed that Montpellier have a fantastic record against bad-to-mediocre teams and struggle against the elite - although they should have taken a point from Bordeaux two weeks ago (but again, that was at home!). I still might back Montpellier on asian (+1), but a draw is the ceiling for this team I believe...all that said, none of the home favorites have a great record in the final game of december... but there is one road team that does! see below...
Also I looked up Toulouse vs Bordeaux matchup. Basically, Toulouse played home last three years in a 'mid season finale'... drew twice, and lost 0-4 to the team that ended up being relegated that year. Bordeaux, on the other hand, have been rock solid with three wins out of three. So of course I'm betting Bordeaux @ 2.20 and probably them to keep a clean sheet.
So my bet is:
Parlay/Round Robin (2 of 6)
Selection 1: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.250
Selection 2: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Olympique Marseille vs AJ Auxerre) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.350
Selection 3: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Paris Saint Germain vs Grenoble ) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.200
Selection 4: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Girondins Bordeaux 23-December-2009 11:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.20