Well, how did you come to the pick in the first place?

really sorry guys. so frustrating.

Does anybody know where I can find player salary information? The more leagues/players the better ...

Between this and last week my ABU/ABScouser sentiment is finally paying off. I should be even about 2022.

20/12 games:

wolves vs burnley @2.00
wolves rested all their outfield players for their match against man utd, so they should all be fit, well rested and raring to go against a poor (away form) burnley team.

everton vs birmingham @4.00
birmingham are on a great run of form for a team of their stature. they have also been able to rest for 2 extra days than everton have, who themselves have a lot of injuries. everton have been fairly bad recently, losing three and drawing two of their last 5 home matches in all competitions. i think considering these facts, there is great value in this price offered.

west ham vs chelsea @1.40
after man utd slipped up, chelsea will have a lot of motivation to slaughter an under-performing west ham team. drogba is expected to return too, with a few others expected to come back in (carvalho, malouda etc).

Another very good weekend. Comfortable monies in the end. Don't mean to twist the knife in further but Man U and Liverpool were obv fades folks . Put half my roll on Real last night. 1.25 odds was very decent for it. Won 6-0! Might stick a little bit on Inter later. Bit short though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceire

Portsmouth vs Liverpool (liverpool @ 4/6 on 888sport)

I think there value in this line. Portsmouth have been playing good of late and have been running bad i.m.o but the same can can be said of liverpool.
They were unlucky against arsenal and on a different day could have won 2-0. They are a different team with gerard and torres, just looking at the castro ranking of the two teams the golf of quality is huge

Portsmouth (4044)
Liverpool (7824)

Portsmouth might also be with out David james and have the worst home form in the EPL (aloso the second worst goal ratio per game in the league)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceire

West ham vs Chelsea (chelsea @ 2/5 on betfair)

I still think there is good value in this line, chelsea will have drogba back which is huge for this type of game.
West ham have looked terrible all season, they have alot of injuries, most notable there top scorer (cole). Upson is also a huge blow esp if chelsea have drogba back.

West ham have leaked goals at home all season and have only 2 clean sheets all season (home and away). If the game becomes scrappy the game will be won in MF, the power and strength chelsea have in MF should out muscle and out class west ham.
Chelsea seem to be one of the best team to grind out a result when they are up against a well organized team that defend as a unit (something i havent seen west ham do since they sold collins)

Whats the line on Benitez - Next manager sacked ?
Should be any day now.......
Should've been a month ago...

Benitez at 7/1 on William Hill. Megson favourite for next sacking/departure at 9/4

My pick for today:

FC Augsburg - 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.68BF and u2.5 1.78BF

- 1. FC K. run at W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-D-W atm H&A and are Leader in the 2. BuLi
- Augsburg is only 7. in 2. BuLi and run at L-W-D-W-W-L-W-D-D-D H&A
- The last 3 matches they only scored

+Its still fairly cold...

Fingers crossed!

Regards
A234

Bournemouth - Notts County u2.5 1.95BF 1.75Bwin

5 of their 6 last went under 2.5, its still fairly cold...

BF notes:

Might be more against betting the line. But im fairly comfy doin it.

Regards
A234

not much on today.

mets vs caen @2.10

is the best out there i think. mets are 4th and caen are 1st in the french ligue 2. metz have a good record vs caen and are also on a 5 game winning streak at home. caen are also very good, leading the league by 6pts. mets can jump to 2nd (still 6pts behind caen) if they win here too.

ty, Benitez performing far worse than Megson in terms of pre-season expectation and the teams current state of affairs

I just took an enormous position (by my standards) on a bet thanks to a tipoff from uistbhoy on the EPL thread. In the market "Head to Head Leagues" on Betfair, Liverpool were trading at an absurd 3.1 (I got some money under 3, even) to win out of the northwest clubs, which in practical terms means beat City and United in points total for the season. My normal sportsbet amount is $50 and I just do it for kicks, but I have so far laid 1K on Liverpool, so 20 units I guess. They're out to 3.65 now because I ate all the bet money in the market, but there's still good value betting Man United at 1.56. I'd be taking that too if I knew of a good way to hedge against City, who will be an unknown quantity after the January trade window. Frankly I still think laying Liverpool is value at 3.65 as well. 3.1 was completely ludicrous, currently united are 10 points ahead, city are 2 points and a game ahead, and liverpool are playing like utter ****e.

Scratch that. Apparently in Head to Head Leagues, only matches between those teams count.

Did you mean my picks?

Bleh 4-1

Bournemouth - Notts County u2.5 1.95BF 1.75Bwin DNS

match postponed.

i just read that in the EPL thread - betfair were pretty out of line regarding their market definition imo.

paddy power also did something similar with some special markets they opened for the chelsea-united CL final. i saw a market for "which phrases will the commentators say?" and they gave a huge list of standard one-liners they always say. me being me, i thought it was like printing money so put a few units on that... turns out i read the rules afterwards and they were only paying out on the FIRST PHRASE SAID.

my BR was not happy

Not really out of line really in that they were angle-shooting (they have nothing to gain from doing so anyway) but just badly worded.

Reading the rules is basically the first thing you should do in any market you're not experienced in, especially if it seems to good to be true.

Yeah was my fault really. Unfortunately I was a bit drunk, and then a combination of things happened - the bet was presented to me in a certain way in the EPL thread, leading me to think that the guy posting about it had actually investigated how it worked, then there was the phrasing "Top Northwest Club" which seemed pretty unambiguous. The idea that it meant "Top Northwest Club, oh except we don't mean in the Premier League obviously" never occurred to me. Live and learn.

As I said in the EPL thread, the worst part is that I'm a Liverpool fan and was prepared to cheer my own bet down if it meant Liverpool finished above United. But now I'm in a situation where I might lose my bet and Liverpool could still have a disaster season. I'm trying to offload the bet for an acceptable guaranteed loss at the moment, since the idea of watching Man Utd v Liverpool at Old Trafford and hoping Man Utd win makes me sick.

yeah, you're right.

as an aside, i have:

lens vs st. etienne @1.90 for today.

both are pretty low down the table so there is lots of motivation from both sides. lens are good at home, having beaten some top teams recently (marseille) and st. etienne are struggling away from home.

Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar u2.5 @1.98 BF

Last 3 matchs they never scored more than 2...

Regards
A234

Baronie v Sparta @1.47 BF

I guess thats a decent price for such a huge fav.

Reagards
A234


P.s. Any thoughts on the rottedam v alkmaar game 2nite?
I guess rotterdam might be a good pick, they won their past 4 matches and only because az is last years champin they are slightly overrated. their recent form is bad (WLDL H&A)
I got Rotterdam at 2 on bwin, others might be bether!

Yay!

Lens did heir job too! Good day

Regards
A234

Awesome job! I hit both Lens AND Under 2 goals - the former, miraculously, the latter... I wish every bet was this easy.

Tonight I am looking at these three matchups...

Paris SG vs Grenoble
O.Lyon vs Montpellier
Marseille vs Auxerre

Top three teams in France for a while now (maybe with exception of PSG who still are 'champions at heart'..hmm ok), all playing home games to close out year 2009. As stats show, a home blowout is rather unlikely in this scenario and hasn't happened ONCE out of nine games.

PSG: 1 home draw, 1 away draw, 1 away win 1-0 (all opponents placed 5 to 18 that respective season)

Lyon: 1 home draw, 1 away draw, 1 away win 1-0 (all opponents placed 11 to 17 that respective season)

Marseille: 2 home wins (1-0 and 2-1) over 11th and 9th and 1 home loss 0-3 (!) to 15th placed Nancy last year

This tells me draws in all three fixtures are overpriced (4.2-4.35). Betting away team asian handicap (+1) might be a good idea too*

----------
*Originally, I was looking for a reason to bet PSG and possibly lay Lyon, since their opposition (Grenoble and Montpellier, respectively) seem to be 'earth and heaven' - 7 points and 30 points, and both home favorites are priced the same, around 1.5. However, further inspection showed that Montpellier have a fantastic record against bad-to-mediocre teams and struggle against the elite - although they should have taken a point from Bordeaux two weeks ago (but again, that was at home!). I still might back Montpellier on asian (+1), but a draw is the ceiling for this team I believe...all that said, none of the home favorites have a great record in the final game of december... but there is one road team that does! see below...

Also I looked up Toulouse vs Bordeaux matchup. Basically, Toulouse played home last three years in a 'mid season finale'... drew twice, and lost 0-4 to the team that ended up being relegated that year. Bordeaux, on the other hand, have been rock solid with three wins out of three. So of course I'm betting Bordeaux @ 2.20 and probably them to keep a clean sheet.

So my bet is:

Parlay/Round Robin (2 of 6)

Selection 1: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.250

Selection 2: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Olympique Marseille vs AJ Auxerre) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.350

Selection 3: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Draw(Paris Saint Germain vs Grenoble ) 23-December-2009 9:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 4.200

Selection 4: France - Ligue 1, Soccer
Girondins Bordeaux 23-December-2009 11:59 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.20