very nice the vig , had ur 3 under/over tips individually plus as a 3 way combo , made up for city winning being a united fan

i'm curious as to why you got the under 2.5 in everton/arsenal? same with QPR/liverpool...?

are you asking me why i picked them?

cause they won

4-0 +4.04u

Ytd 102-92-9 +37.38u

wow nice day in EPL for the thread. well done.

nice thevig, didnt tail but i was a fan of all from the getgo except qpr-pool

yes.

i disliked the QPR one the most but i have an open mind so convince me i'm ******ed

i have a model that i use for picks that basically is a complicated way of estimating each teams scoring intensities, then sims games based on those intensities. i follow the epl closely so i veto my model if there are important injuries, managerial changes, most recent form, etc. ive only been betting for ~6 weeks so my judgement could be way off (as ive already admitted for the city game today).

as far as those two games go i didnt see anything that would make me think i should not go with what the model generated. also not sure if youre talking about qpr to win or the u2'. sorry i cant give a better answer. do you have specific reasons why you didnt like them? i could write a paragraph or two on each games "qualitative" analysis but it wouldnt make much sense if we agree on everything except for a few points. and as far as getting my ballpark estimate of each pick i can send you info on the model im using if you pm me.

i was talking about the o/u, win i like, went with them at +0.5 myself
sounds like an interesting model. very interesting :P

i actually had both QPR win and draw as +ev which is why i said earlier that i think i should have taken +.5. but i thought win was massively more +ev although much higher variance obviously. anyways... what a game that was

another note: i have been working on the model for close to 3 months. but have not tested to see whether it actually works make betting predictions. i hope to improve the model and test it so i can tell exactly how awesome or terrible it is and possibly start betting more serious sums of money. i decided to start betting with it prematurely just to get a feel as to how sports betting works and also get any thoughts on the picks on this forum. so, if you have specific qualms with any picks, let me know any i will consider other analysis i may have to do and whether i can improve the model. i liked the hate my city pick received as it made me see some things i need to consider more closely.

Ty guys, good stuff all around today.

Santander - Sevilla both teams to score 1.92 IMO

What are the chances at this point of QPR being relegated?

Mar 24 11:00 ET Sunderland *v* Queens Park Rangers Stadium of Light Premier League
Mar 31 10:00 ET Queens Park Rangers *v* Arsenal Loftus Road Stadium Premier League
Apr 8 8:30 ET Manchester United *v* Queens Park Rangers Old Trafford Premier League
Apr 11 3:00 ET Queens Park Rangers *v* Swansea City Loftus Road Premier League
Apr 14 10:00 ET West Bromwich Albion *v* Queens Park Rangers The Hawthorns Premier League
Apr 21 12:30 ET Queens Park Rangers *v* Tottenham Hotspur Loftus Road Premier League
Apr 29 8:30 ET Chelsea *v* Queens Park Rangers Stamford Bridge Premier League
May 6 9:00 ET Queens Park Rangers *v* Stoke City Loftus Road Premier League
May 13 10:00 ET Manchester City *v* Queens Park Rangers Etihad Stadium Premier League

Their final 9 games is brutal, Away at United, Sunderland,West Brom,Chelsea, City. I see them maybe drawing with Sunderland and West Brom. Then at home they get Gunners, Swansea, Spurs, Stoke. I don't see many points in there as well maybe a win or a a few draws. So let's say 5 points? So out of a final 27 points I would say they pick up 3-7 points max.

I haven't gone over the bottom 3's remaining schedule yet. IMO Blackburn is safe, it's a four team race. I know it wont happen but I would be so happy if Villa got relegated. I can't stand the team and think they are just a bore.

I agree I think Torres is god awful, and is in the same category as Balotelli..If Balotell didn't play today that game would have gone over 2.5 way earlier

Torres 22 games played 2 goals 3 assists
Balotelli 18 games played 11 goals 0 assists

To say Torres is in the same category as Balotelli is an insult to Balotelli.

i agree. balotelli is clearly incredibly talented. hes a huge douche but hes 21. he also cost way less than torres. i was never a huge fan of torres at liverpool but he did score a lot. now it seems like hes completely lost all desire to play the game.

TheVig where do you get your footy stats?

yea but they both blow plently of opportunities.. Balotelli will never get a crucial goal when it counts

http://www.espnstar.com/football/pre.../stats-centre/
http://www.thescore.com/epl/player_splits/games_goals

Just a couple I found now scrolling thru my bookmarks.

Do you have any you would recommend?

i seem to remember him scoring the first two in a 6-1 demolition of that other manchester team. i dont think hes clinical yet but hes 21 and will be one of the top players in the world in 2 or 3 years if he doesnt let his ego get to him

wow the player stats on thescore.com are gonna be fun to scrape and mess around with. thanks man. i use football-data.co.uk. they have csvs of game results for the last ~20 years and additional stats (betting odds from multiple sites, halftime score, cards, corners etc.) for the last ~10. also statto.com has some good stuff

The kid is only 21, give him time. I don't know if there is any City fans in the thread, but If they could back me up when I say I'd wager that Balotelli has scored some crucial goals this season. Torres hardly is ever in a position to blow a scoring chance. Only one that comes to mind is when he blew the open net against United? Can't remember exactly.

Thank you as well, def going to add those to my soccer bookmarks.