blackpool @ peterborough tmro offers great value

i think stoke +1.25 looks VERY attractive,
seems like ur gettin somewhere around what ur paying for on most of the rest

What is your strategy? my model acutally says the sunderland liverpool game is the best pick. giving sunderland a 42% chance of a win and 30% chance of draw. and some of the picks are very small edges

i know nothing about that sir im sry, i get selections emailed to me from a supposed genious and watch a ton for fun, good u asked cause needed to be said anyway wrt my pick above

liv sun does look sound

If you would like some honest opinions/critiques, I'd be interested in hearing about how the model works more than what plays it spits out.

ill pm you with details if thats ok. dont want to take up more of this thread with my stuff.

sounds good

Are the absences of Sessegnon, Cattermole and probably Richardson accounted for in those numbers? I wouldn't touch Sunderland this weekend without Sessegnon, everything good that team does comes through him.

Anyone else think Stoke at 8/1 away to Chelsea is a little generous?

Fulham at 15/8 seems like a good price considering both teams recent form?

YTD:30-34-1(+7.05u)


My picks for today:
Bolton-QPR Over 2.5 goals 2u to win 2.12u

Got a quadruple - Brighton, Reading, Carlisle and Port Vale - 14/1

Brighton (vs Pompey) and Reading (vs Leicester) are going both at evens or better, ridic prices!

how QPR never won that game i'll never know, the referee/both linesmen may have just cost them £20million

nvm

Adding

Aston Villa-Fulham Over 2.5 goals 2u to win 2.12u
Brighton-Peterbrough Brighton -1 AH 1u to win 2u

Correction meant to write Brighton-Portsmouth

Adding:

Everton-Tottenham Over 2.5 goals 2u to win 2.46u
Betis- Real Madrid Real Madrid -1 AH 3u to win 2.4u

In other news, fading me is extremely profitable.

If i didnt misread livescore somehow, gratz.
Currently sweating Everton whom i got on -0 ball

Individual players' injuries are not included. I'm working on collecting data to work on that but it's incredibly hard. Total number of players injured/suspended is included. The model is a huge work in progress. If you have any idea as to where I could possibly find data on games including who played for each team let me know.

By the way, the beginning line of my picks post was completely being sarcastic. Obviously I don't think my picks are incredible (I havent even backtested a betting strategy using this model, but I do know the model fits teams performance over a season reasonably well). I've only been making picks for three weeks now so I'm just trying to get them out there to hear what other people have to say and learn exactly how sports betting works (ie the question about spreads, etc.).

Hope everyone else had as good a weekend as me (i threw in sunderland ML last minute for ~3u win, wont add this in to my record on this thread since i didnt post it before the match, even though my previous posts made it quite obvious i was going to take it ) and made some money.

0-4 -5.7u

Ytd 94-87-8 +34.45u

don't worry man you were probably right with that analysis. i got lucky. fitting individual players into the model is going to be incredibly challenging but its definitely something to work on

Ytd 94-87-8 +34.45u
Bets on a 1-5u scale

Over 3 goals in West Brom and Man United 2.16u to win 2u
Under 2.5 goals in Swansea and Man City 1.05u to win 1u
Over 2.5 goals in Norwich and Wigan 1.2u to win 1u

Monday. Over 3 goals in Gunners and Newcastle 2u to win 2.2u

ytd 11-6 +4.519u

Norwich -.5 over wigan @ 1.84

2-2-1(+0.12u)yesterday
YTD:32-36-2(+7.17u)

My picks for today:
Karabukspor-Antalyaspor Over 2.5 goals 2u to win 1.64u

Nice picks earlier. the 11/6 is win/loss? and the 4.519 is units won ?
Still dont understand this to be honest. How much is an unit, a % ?

Betting for a long time on a small level, so would like to understand how that works now

Norwich -.5 is same as a win for Norwich right?

I also took the Norwich bet including 2 of the picks of the Vig. Also there is much value in:
NEC Nijmegen v Twente@1.9