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Old 12-16-2009, 05:03 AM   #326
aao
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

thats a very interesting point actually. im not too sure it will affect the "bigger" clubs what with all the under-soil heating technologies and expert groundstaff teams making sure the pitch is easier to play on for the players... but yes, the ground is harder and should make for more scrappier matches as the ball bobbles around and bounces everywhere.

also, worth noting that we are approaching the xmas period of the season now and teams will start to pick up some form as well as injuries (a lot of hamstrings start to go... essien to name but one recently). i expect much more of the favourites to be winning in the next few weeks as teams filter out for their targets etc.

relating to morale and confidence, roughly around february+ teams start to panic and start picking up performances if they have been under-performing and start making those relegation-threatened escape attempts.

just my 2 cents
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Old 12-16-2009, 06:05 PM   #327
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

oh-my-gawd

I've just hit what seems like the first parlay of the year. Liverpool+Tottenham+Chelsea (barely, f---rs!) paid over +240.

And on to the useful part of my post. Apparently, unders will be hitting fairly regularly in the next couple of weeks due to extreme cold. Cashed on Partizan-Shakhtar in League Europa (U2.5 paid -110, FT 1-0, and 4-5 hours before kickoff time there was still a chance of game cancellation due to low temperature...)

If you stumble upon a piece of similar info, be sure to use it. I foolishly bet a couple of overs in France today. In both games, home team went up 1-0 by 20th minute and (I guess) just killed the game off.

Unders FTW
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Old 12-16-2009, 10:22 PM   #328
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
16/12 games:

tottenham vs man city DC on 1 or X @1.33 - 3u
tottenham vs man city exact score 2-1 @8.5 - 0.5u
burnley vs arsenal @1.48 - 3u


@5.74 - 1u
burnley vs arsenal
montpellier vs bordeaux DC on 1 or 2
psg vs lens
fk partizan vs shakhtar
.
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Old 12-16-2009, 10:36 PM   #329
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Tot vs Man City over 2.5 goals @1.82 on betfair
Tot are averaging scoring 2.33 goals a game and have only managed 2 clean sheets all season. They have one of the most on form strikers (defoe) and winger (lennon) in the EPL. They also have modric coming back from injury, who normally tranforms the way tot play (for the better )

City have averaged 1.86 scored goals a game, they look like there attack has clicked since robino has been back, they offer some of the best forward talent in the world with tevez and adeb. At the back toure and lescott look so uncomfortable together and Richards and bridge look like they will have a tough time contolling the threat from tot flanks.

This should be a real open game with both teams wanting a win, tot struggle to break teams down when teams get men behind the ball and compact there own half, City wont do this, they are deadly on the break (as seen by arsenal and Man united) and should be good for a goal, should be a good game.
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For all the reasons above again

Birmingham vs Blackburn under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 on betfairBirmingham also have the second highest clean sheets in the EPL. They still have no real threat up front.

Blackburn are averaging 2.3 shoots on target a game and under a goal a game away from home, they are missing there top scorer and most creative M.F (dunne) and are struggling away from home.
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Just saw wolves have made 10 changes and united are playing two up front (always think Rooney and united look more of an attacking threat when they play someone next to him)

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60


Nice to see jerome get his second and third of the season in one
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Old 12-16-2009, 11:23 PM   #330
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

trying those unders for today

17/12 games:


Villarreal vs RB Salzburg under2.5 @1.95 - 1u
Fenerbahce vs Sheriff under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
Everton vs Bate under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
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Old 12-17-2009, 09:38 AM   #331
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Portsmouth vs Liverpool (liverpool @ 4/6 on 888sport)

I think there value in this line. Portsmouth have been playing good of late and have been running bad i.m.o but the same can can be said of liverpool.
They were unlucky against arsenal and on a different day could have won 2-0. They are a different team with gerard and torres, just looking at the castro ranking of the two teams the golf of quality is huge

Portsmouth (4044)
Liverpool (7824)

Portsmouth might also be with out David james and have the worst home form in the EPL (aloso the second worst goal ratio per game in the league)

Last edited by ceire; 12-17-2009 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:07 PM   #332
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

West ham vs Chelsea (chelsea @ 2/5 on betfair)

I still think there is good value in this line, chelsea will have drogba back which is huge for this type of game.
West ham have looked terrible all season, they have alot of injuries, most notable there top scorer (cole). Upson is also a huge blow esp if chelsea have drogba back.

West ham have leaked goals at home all season and have only 2 clean sheets all season (home and away). If the game becomes scrappy the game will be won in MF, the power and strength chelsea have in MF should out muscle and out class west ham.
Chelsea seem to be one of the best team to grind out a result when they are up against a well organized team that defend as a unit (something i havent seen west ham do since they sold collins)

Last edited by ceire; 12-17-2009 at 08:17 PM.
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Old 12-17-2009, 08:45 PM   #333
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
trying those unders for today

17/12 games:


Villarreal vs RB Salzburg under2.5 @1.95 - 1u
Fenerbahce vs Sheriff under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
Everton vs Bate under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
hat off to macaubungee.
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Old 12-17-2009, 09:02 PM   #334
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

nice
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Old 12-17-2009, 09:02 PM   #335
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Oh you are welcome. I went the same path, trying to pick the coldest places and the most uninterested teams.

Results?

Rapid 3-3 Celtic
Ajax 1-3 Anderlecht

lol
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Old 12-17-2009, 11:23 PM   #336
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

18/12 games:

Grimsby vs Morecambe @2.05 - 1u (slightly risky, but great odds for a team that is out-of-form vs a team that is in-from).

Tours vs Istres u2.5 @1.57 - 1u (avg of 2.2 goals over last 5 matches H&A)

Brestois vs Nimes u2.5 @1.57 - 1u (avg of 2.9 goals over last 5 matches H&A. However, avg of 1.66 goals over the last 3 games for each H&A)

Vannes vs Bastia u2.5 @1.60 - 1u (avg of 2.4 goals over last 5 matches H&A)

Combine all that with the cold weather and what macau said above... fingers crossed.
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Old 12-18-2009, 04:27 AM   #337
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
trying those unders for today

17/12 games:


Villarreal vs RB Salzburg under2.5 @1.95 - 1u
Fenerbahce vs Sheriff under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
Everton vs Bate under2.5 @1.75 - 1u
Wow, that was great!
I hope it works for today, since im a bit down on SB right now...

Thy very much!

Regards
A234
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Old 12-18-2009, 05:01 AM   #338
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
18/12 games:


Vannes vs Bastia u2.5 @1.60 - 1u (avg of 2.4 goals over last 5 matches H&A)
Two short questions:
-where do i find the game above? what league?
-what is H&A?

Regards and thanks in advance
A234
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Old 12-18-2009, 09:43 AM   #339
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by A234 View Post
Two short questions:
-where do i find the game above? what league?
-what is H&A?

Regards and thanks in advance
A234
It's France Ligue 2 and should be a market for this on any decent european book (Bet365, Bwin).

H&A is Home and Away (not the unbelievably bad Aussie soap opera though lol)
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Old 12-18-2009, 09:51 AM   #340
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
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Two short questions:
-where do i find the game above? what league?
-what is H&A?

Regards and thanks in advance
A234
it's a French Ligue 2 game.

the line is available on gamebookers.com (i use this site almost all the time) and bet365 to name but two.

H&A = home & away. i search the internet for stats, form, recent results etc. and make a rough calculation using 'no. of games' and 'total goals'. it's not a "system", its just a rough guide for me to see how the recent games are going and so on... are they scoring lots of goals... how many clean sheets... so, home&away means that i looked at the recent games they played both home and away, instead of just the home teams home form and the away teams away form.
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Old 12-18-2009, 10:19 AM   #341
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Thumbs up Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

3 games which I really like in the English Championship this weekend, and show great value, are:-

Nottingham Forest vs Preston @ 1.84 (19/12)
Cardiff vs Leicester @ evens (19/12)
Newcastle vs Middlesbrough @ 1.82 (20/12)

Nottm Forest are unbeaten in their last 13 league games which is a terrific achievement on its own. 8 wins, 5 draws, but most importantly, out of their 6 home games in this period they have won 5 of them! Some of them very comfortable victories indeed with their last 2 home games ending in 4-1 and 5-1 demolitions against Doncaster and Leicester. They now sit joint 3rd (4th on GD) in the table with Cardiff. 13th place Preston are fairly poor on the road and not as good a team as Leicester. This could be another big scoreline so take the very decent price with Nottingham Forest.

3rd place Cardiff have just come off the back of two fantastic wins away at West Brom (0-2), then away at Middlesbrough (0-1). They are a very good footballing team on their day and are maybe finally puting some consistent form behind them. They should put away a Leicester team who just can't seem to find their feet against the big teams this season thus far. Take Cardiff.

Newcastle are going great guns this season and should continue their form into the new year and regain Premiership status a club of it's huge size and history deserves. They were on a fantastic 7 game win streak until last weekend's 2-2 draw away at Barnsley. I think this is just a slight blip and can see them easily running over a pathetically bad Middlesbrough side under Boro's new boss, Gordon "no clue" Strachan. Newcastle have won 8 out of 10 home games this season, drawing the other two. This should surely be win number 9. Take Newcastle.
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Old 12-18-2009, 11:03 AM   #342
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

@aao Tx for the reply

@Gazo Tx too and welcome back! (Finally ) Tx for your picks!
this is the first time i dont find a bet on betfair, a total of 3 didnt find for this week...

General question(s):

-What does Match Odds Unmanaged mean? I saw that on the Cardiff game on BF
-As soon as I change to any other language than English (UK) i lose the search future on BF... Do you guys have an idea why?


Regards
A234
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Old 12-18-2009, 11:05 AM   #343
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
[U]
Vannes vs Bastia u2.5 @1.60 - 1u (avg of 2.4 goals over last 5 matches H&A)

Combine all that with the cold weather and what macau said above... fingers crossed.
Hey, found it on bwin, first time they offer a better line.
Its at 1.62 atm...
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Old 12-18-2009, 02:35 PM   #344
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
18/12 games:

Tours vs Istres u2.5 @1.57 - 1u (avg of 2.2 goals over last 5 matches H&A)
game postponed so bet refunded.
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Old 12-18-2009, 06:30 PM   #345
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
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@aao Tx for the reply

@Gazo Tx too and welcome back! (Finally ) Tx for your picks!
this is the first time i dont find a bet on betfair, a total of 3 didnt find for this week...

General question(s):

-What does Match Odds Unmanaged mean? I saw that on the Cardiff game on BF
-As soon as I change to any other language than English (UK) i lose the search future on BF... Do you guys have an idea why?


Regards
A234
Betfair are running a trial in CCC and Serie B games where match odds markets will be running in-play but unmanaged - i.e. they won't suspend markets and it's the responsibility of people to take down and put up money instantly when goals go in etc etc.
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Old 12-18-2009, 08:50 PM   #346
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
18/12 games:

Grimsby vs Morecambe @2.05 - 1u
Tours vs Istres u2.5 @1.57 - 1u - postponed
Brestois vs Nimes u2.5 @1.57 - 1u
Vannes vs Bastia u2.5 @1.60 - 1u
.
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Old 12-18-2009, 10:30 PM   #347
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

12/19 games:

fulham vs man utd @1.61 - 3u
arsenal vs hull hull to score a goal @2.10 - 1u
sheff. wed vs swansea @2.40 - 1u

and an acc. on:

1u
@5.04
blackpool vs WBA
portsmouth vs liverpool
man city vs sunderland
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Old 12-19-2009, 07:43 AM   #348
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

oops i mean acc. on:

1u
@5.04
blackpool vs WBA
portsmouth vs liverpool
man city vs sunderland

just saw my mistake.

the WBA game is postponed though. so bet should be recalculated.
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Old 12-19-2009, 01:35 PM   #349
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

haha Fulham just defeated MU a with a categoric 3-0, won 124 $ )
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Old 12-19-2009, 02:35 PM   #350
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
**** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** UGHHHHHHHHHHHHH ****

i would have shipped 2.7k if they held on for 5 more ****ing minutes!
CWC Final ...
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