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Old 12-12-2009, 10:12 PM   #301
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Yeah unlucky dude, some good picks there but just a weird day like you said. Sunderland couldnt even win at home to port, even with there good home form.
yeah, the stoke game was agonizing to watch - they had so many chances to score too.

today reminded me of that day last year when all the top 4 drew 0-0 or something... practically EVERYONES accumulators lost lol.

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I went 1-10 in all bets today and 0-5 in the EPL. It was a particularly bad day to learn to look more closely because they switch the to win and risk when you're betting a favorite. The Chelsea-Man U-Man City 0 for 3 was pretty brutal especially since I bet more than I had intended on them.
ah

was really shocked with the man utd and man city scores especially since man utd were on a good run of form (+ scoring a good few goals in each game) and man city had just come off the back of 2 good results to arsenal and chelsea... its like all their hard work was for nothing.

oh well, hopefully their odds for a win next week may be higher than normal to discourage people laying them :P... we'll see.
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Old 12-12-2009, 10:42 PM   #302
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Birmingham vs West Ham under 2.5 goals @ 1.82 on betfair

West ham are missing there main striker cole who has got a 3rd of west hams goals this season. They are only averaging 4.2 shoots on target and averaging just over a goal a game away from home (thats when they had cole)

Birmingham have kept 6 clean sheets this season (4 of them at home), they have only let in 5 goals at home, average just over 3 shoots on target at home and only a goal a game all season.
For all the reasons above again

Birmingham vs Blackburn under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 on betfair

Birmingham also have the second highest clean sheets in the EPL. They still have no real threat up front.

Blackburn are averaging 2.3 shoots on target a game and under a goal a game away from home, they are missing there top scorer and most creative M.F (dunne) and are struggling away from home.
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Old 12-12-2009, 11:30 PM   #303
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Tot vs Man City over 2.5 goals @1.82 on betfair

Tot are averaging scoring 2.33 goals a game and have only managed 2 clean sheets all season. They have one of the most on form strikers (defoe) and winger (lennon) in the EPL. They also have modric coming back from injury, who normally tranforms the way tot play (for the better )

City have averaged 1.86 scored goals a game, they look like there attack has clicked since robino has been back, they offer some of the best forward talent in the world with tevez and adeb. At the back toure and lescott look so uncomfortable together and Richards and bridge look like they will have a tough time contolling the threat from tot flanks.

This should be a real open game with both teams wanting a win, tot struggle to break teams down when teams get men behind the ball and compact there own half, City wont do this, they are deadly on the break (as seen by arsenal and Man united) and should be good for a goal, should be a good game.
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Old 12-13-2009, 04:11 PM   #304
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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13/12 games:

liverpool vs arsenal over 2.5 goals @1.90 - 3u
middlesborough vs. cardiff double chance on draw or cardiff @1.62 - 3u

double on liverpool and cardiff to win @7.26 - 0.5u
.
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Old 12-13-2009, 10:33 PM   #305
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

14/12 games:

wba vs qpr @1.67 - 3u

wba's home form is currently LWWLW, with W's against lower-to-mid-table opposition and L's against tougher opposition that are competing for the play-offs. i think theyll make mince meat of a very, very weak QPR team who are themselves on a very poor run of form away from home (WWLLL). QPR are also on a run of 5 games (home and away) without a win.

there's also an argument for the o2.5 goals line too (@1.65)... but i like the wba win better.
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Old 12-14-2009, 08:15 AM   #306
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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there's also an argument for the o2.5 goals line too (@1.65)... but i like the wba win better.
Oi, thx for the pick!
Just for your info, The odds for wba went to 1.63 (bf) and are curr @ 1.8 (bf)

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Old 12-14-2009, 12:38 PM   #307
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

yah cool, ty for that.

ive now taken a double on:

1u
@2.81
wba vs qpr o2.5 goals
birmingham vs blackburn u2.5 goals
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Old 12-14-2009, 03:35 PM   #308
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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yah cool, ty for that.

ive now taken a double on:

1u
@2.81
wba vs qpr o2.5 goals
birmingham vs blackburn u2.5 goals


I hoped i helped you pick that one
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Old 12-14-2009, 06:33 PM   #309
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Blerk tie, but i limited my losses by taking the o2,5...

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Old 12-14-2009, 08:54 PM   #310
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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14/12 games:

wba vs qpr @1.67 - 3u
sjidfgfdj!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
yah cool, ty for that.

ive now taken a double on:

1u
@2.81
wba vs qpr o2.5 goals
birmingham vs blackburn u2.5 goals
fingers crossed to claw some units back.

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[/b]

I hoped i helped you pick that one
yup - you did. v good pick. i should have taken your u2.5 for the sat game too i think in hindsight

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Blerk tie, but i limited my losses by taking the o2,5...

Regards
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Old 12-14-2009, 09:14 PM   #311
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

do i get that right? u didnt bet the o2.5? why if so?
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Old 12-14-2009, 09:24 PM   #312
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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yup - you did. v good pick. i should have taken your u2.5 for the sat game too i think in hindsight

Story of my betting career
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Old 12-14-2009, 09:35 PM   #313
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

15/12 games:

sunderland vs aston villa draw @3.25 - 1u
sunderland will be eager to make amends for dropping points against portsmouth and aston villa will be on a high after achieving a fantastic result against manchester united. sunderland are the weaker team out of the two, but they are fairly solid at home recently (WDDWD) against opposition including arsenal and liverpool, whereas aston villas away form is flip-flopping to a degree (win vs man utd, draws vs burnley+everton and loss vs. west ham), but are currently on a 2 win run.

i dont usually like the idea of betting on a draw but i think theres a chance that aston villa may not be able to keep up the way they played against man utd but will still be too strong for sunderland to overcome them.

sunderland vs aston villa multiple exact score 1-2, 1-3 or 1-4 @5.50 - 0.5u
im also concerned that since (dont quote me on this) gordon, ferdinand and catermole are out injured... so ill hedge my bet and pick aston villa to win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 given they have a general clean bill of health and should be pumped after the man utd win.

also have the u2.5 on the double still alive (thanks ceire).
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Old 12-14-2009, 09:39 PM   #314
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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do i get that right? u didnt bet the o2.5? why if so?
for clarity,

i took the o2.5 for the wba game as the line got better later in the day (you prompted me)... but i put it in a double with the u2.5goals line with the birmingham vs blackburn game for tomorrow/today.
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Old 12-15-2009, 07:44 AM   #315
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

edit (this was quoted from above post dont know how to quote half a post): im also concerned that since (dont quote me on this) gordon, ferdinand and catermole are out injured... so ill hedge my bet and pick aston villa to win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 given they have a general clean bill of health and should be pumped after the man utd win.

************************************************** **************************

I am sunderland fan and ur injury info is correct. I have to say if we play like we did against portsmouth 2nite (i was there) id have to go for villa. However we have really raised our game against the top teams, wins aginst liverpool and arsenal and draw away to man u which we were v unlucky not to win. Personaly i wont b betting on the game but just to warn u we seem to play better the better the team we playin. Id normaly say good luck but if u are right im in for 1 depressing night lol.
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Old 12-15-2009, 10:25 AM   #316
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Oio i just saw that BF offers a no action when draw bet on villa at 2 atm!

"Sunderland v Aston Villa - DRAW NO BET" is the bet it just went down to 1.98 atm

Hf
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Old 12-15-2009, 10:51 AM   #317
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

ceire I like your reasoning on Tottenham/Man City o2.5, I'm going to place a small wager.

Edit: Cancel that, it's down to 1.75 on Betfair plus the 5% commission, I don't think I like it so much at that price.
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Old 12-15-2009, 10:59 AM   #318
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

As per Jared's model I have a couple of bets on West Ham and Liverpool for the midweek games. I'm a Liverpool fan and am very confident they will be able to crush Wigan with Torres fit. You can get 1.35 on Betfair and I think a fair price is more around the 1.25 - 1.3 mark.
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:51 PM   #319
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Just saw wolves have made 10 changes and united are playing two up front (always think Rooney and united look more of an attacking threat when they play someone next to him)

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60

Last edited by ceire; 12-15-2009 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 12-15-2009, 03:56 PM   #320
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Just saw wolves have made 10 changes and united are playing two up front (always think Rooney and united look more of an attacking threat when they play someone next to him)

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60
Darn i already got the under cus of their bad recent scoring...
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Old 12-15-2009, 04:00 PM   #321
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Darn i already got the under cus of their bad recent scoring...
Well good luck man (obv i dont mean it ) but should be interesting, united are pretty strong at home and i can see a 3-0 (+) and wolves just lying down after one goal like most teams do when they go to OT.

Also united will be wanting to make up for what happened this weekend.
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Old 12-15-2009, 05:58 PM   #322
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Well good luck man (obv i dont mean it ) but should be interesting, united are pretty strong at home and i can see a 3-0 (+) and wolves just lying down after one goal like most teams do when they go to OT.

Also united will be wanting to make up for what happened this weekend.
U got me obv!
Well wasnt the best nor the worst day...
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Old 12-16-2009, 01:12 AM   #323
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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1u
@2.81
wba vs qpr o2.5 goals
birmingham vs blackburn u2.5 goals
Quote:
Originally Posted by aao View Post
15/12 games:

sunderland vs aston villa draw @3.25 - 1u

sunderland vs aston villa multiple exact score 1-2, 1-3 or 1-4 @5.50 - 0.5u
hehe was close with the multiple exact score

had bolton vs west ham @2.10 - 1u which came through though.

season to date: -5.78u
win-losses: 30-27
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Old 12-16-2009, 03:42 AM   #324
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

ugh, did the write-ups for todays games but 2p2 had a database error so not writing them again...

basically:

16/12 games:


tottenham vs man city DC on 1 or X @1.33 - 3u
tottenham vs man city exact score 2-1 @8.5 - 0.5u
burnley vs arsenal @1.48 - 3u

and although i run quite badly on accumulators...

@5.74 - 1u
burnley vs arsenal
montpellier vs bordeaux DC on 1 or 2
psg vs lens
fk partizan vs shakhtar
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Old 12-16-2009, 04:22 AM   #325
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I have a cupple of questions regarding snow:

-Snow slows the pitch down more than rain, a short passing game is most effective.
-It lowers the potential total of scores.

Do I get that right?
Did I miss on any thing very important?

Regards
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