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Old 11-25-2009, 08:52 PM   #251
A234
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by HipsterDufes View Post
Ez game guys ... everybody wins!
Nope, Everton doesnt

I have no access at my betting ac right now but i guess it wasnt that good a day...

Last edited by A234; 11-25-2009 at 08:53 PM. Reason: added smthing
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Old 11-26-2009, 05:15 AM   #252
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Which league do you guys think has the most efficient market? Seems like it should be the EPL right?
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Old 11-26-2009, 07:13 AM   #253
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Isn't it by default the market with most action, week in and week out?

Champions League, followed by EPL. And every four years, the World Cup
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Old 11-26-2009, 07:33 AM   #254
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Which league do you guys think has the most efficient market? Seems like it should be the EPL right?
Whichever has the most liquidity should be the most efficient....so Premier League

Some of the more obscure leagues on BF are way off at times imo...French Div 2 to name one
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Old 11-26-2009, 07:41 AM   #255
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Nice result last nite guys, v comfotable didnt even have to swaet it . A little bit upset tho as i forgot to back bordauex after earlier in the week deciding too. didnt realsie until i saw them go a goal up and all value had dissappeared quicker than a drogba injury, oh well not to worry. With regards to the market efficiency q i would have to say the premier league.
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Old 11-26-2009, 08:59 AM   #256
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Post Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Haven't looked into them as much as I can yet, but this weekend's bets that stand out the most so far are:-
Homes
Blackburn @ 1.90
Fulham @ 1.90
Newcastle @ 1.72
Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.75
TSG Hoffenheim @ 1.75
Werder Bremen @ 1.80
Barcelona @ 1.85
Aberdeen @ 4.50 (I may of course need to explain this one a little bit )

Aways
Birmingham @ 3.10
West Brom @ 2.10

I just took all these prices off Bet365 for convenience atm. Obviously Betfair and Oddschecker will lead you to the better prices i.e. Fulham @ evens on BF, and Aberdeen at 4.95 on BF.
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Old 11-26-2009, 09:25 AM   #257
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

yes please elaborate on Aberdeen!

Thx for the picks.
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Old 11-26-2009, 10:21 AM   #258
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Smile Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by A234 View Post
yes please elaborate on Aberdeen!

Thx for the picks.
Historically, this is a pure hatred match-up that easily ranks alongside the same hate shown at any Real vs Barca, West Ham vs Millwall, Palermo vs Catania, Boca vs River Plate, and Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray match. It goes back decades now and has involved horror tackles, media stirring, and crowd violence both inside and outside Aberdeen's Pittodrie stadium on numerous occasions. When Aberdeen sell-out their stadium on any matchday throughout the season you can be sure it will be against Rangers. Come this Saturday lunchtime the whole club will be well up for this one.

From a footballing perspective, things look fairly bleak in both camps. Rangers have just been knocked out of europe on Wednesday after another woeful performance and have injuries, not to mention star centre-back Madjid Bougherra going AWOL. Aberdeen have an impressive injury list aswell, and despite playing some good football in recent weeks, will struggle to field a strong midfield imo. However, Rangers have won only won 1 in the last 8 league games at Aberdeen, with the Dons taking 4 wins.

In terms of sheer value, the Aberdeen @ 4.95 price on Betfair is simply ridiculous. The draw looks tasty aswell, but I'm certainly not ignoring that home price. The fact i'm an Aberdeen fan looks obviously biased, but the stats speak for themselves on this one. Regardless of the fact I'm a fan, I'm sure it would be added to my picks this week for the above reasons anyway. Many Scottish football neutrals will snap up that price aswell. Rangers and Celtic have struggled on the road a lot more this season than previous campaigns i.e. Celtic's recent 3-3 draw away at bottom club Falkirk.
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Old 11-26-2009, 10:54 AM   #259
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Veeeery interesting. Thx for your work!

btw
West Brom @ 2.10
who tf?

Last edited by A234; 11-26-2009 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 11-26-2009, 11:28 AM   #260
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Veeeery interesting. Thx for your work!

btw
West Brom @ 2.10
who tf?
West Brom in the English Championship away to Sheffield Wednesday.

Basically, West Brom are on fire after scoring 11 goals in thir last 3 league games (all wins funnily enough ). Sheff Wed haven't won in last 5 games, losing 3, and all against fairly mediocre mid-table teams. I would expect West Brom to carry their form into this game and beyond. Hope this helps
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Old 11-26-2009, 12:11 PM   #261
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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West Brom in the English Championship away to Sheffield Wednesday.

Basically, West Brom are on fire after scoring 11 goals in thir last 3 league games (all wins funnily enough ). Sheff Wed haven't won in last 5 games, losing 3, and all against fairly mediocre mid-table teams. I would expect West Brom to carry their form into this game and beyond. Hope this helps
Thx!

I think you pick your spots quite well. Do you do it by any kind of a system?
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Old 11-26-2009, 06:50 PM   #262
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I think Fulham are a great bet this weekend. I got even money at William Hill.
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Old 11-26-2009, 07:53 PM   #263
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

thx for the picks gazo. I think i might have a bet on aberdeen, does seem like solid value. I try to stay away from betting on the championship tho as its a bit of a lottery/circus at times, been let down so many times.

P.S. u forgot Sunderland/Newcastle when u were mentioning the best/most fierce derbies
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Old 11-27-2009, 05:07 AM   #264
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

VfL Bochum 2.20
X 3.25
1. FC Köln 3.15

Any thoughts in that?
Im not that informed bout Bundesliga...

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Old 11-27-2009, 05:34 AM   #265
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I'd swerve this one
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Old 11-27-2009, 05:44 AM   #266
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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I'd swerve this one
Bochum 2 weak?
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Old 11-27-2009, 06:59 AM   #267
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Bochum 2 weak?
Good win at Hamburg last week. Cologne are too hot n cold at the minute. Both sitting in bottom 4 so anything can happen. Too difficult.
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Old 11-27-2009, 08:33 AM   #268
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Good win at Hamburg last week. Cologne are too hot n cold at the minute. Both sitting in bottom 4 so anything can happen. Too difficult.
Podol injured and Nova probably benched after an argument with Soldo.
Last match for Soldo if they lose here probably, no bet.
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Old 11-27-2009, 06:30 PM   #269
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Mainz against HSV and Schalke at Mönchengladbach look more promising with the odds I saw.
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Old 11-28-2009, 10:17 AM   #270
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

RC Lens - Olympique Marseille seems not bad at 1.85
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Old 11-28-2009, 11:45 AM   #271
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I thank you for the Aberdeen tip.

Might want to lay off Leverkusen. Price too short.
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Old 11-28-2009, 12:41 PM   #272
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
Haven't looked into them as much as I can yet, but this weekend's bets that stand out the most so far are:-
Homes
Aberdeen @ 4.50 (I may of course need to explain this one a little bit )

Aberdeen at 4.95 on BF.
Aberdeen 1-0 Rangers
Nice 1, even down to 10 men for last half hour.
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Old 11-28-2009, 02:16 PM   #273
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
Historically, this is a pure hatred match-up that easily ranks alongside the same hate shown at any Real vs Barca, West Ham vs Millwall, Palermo vs Catania, Boca vs River Plate, and Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray match. It goes back decades now and has involved horror tackles, media stirring, and crowd violence both inside and outside Aberdeen's Pittodrie stadium on numerous occasions. When Aberdeen sell-out their stadium on any matchday throughout the season you can be sure it will be against Rangers. Come this Saturday lunchtime the whole club will be well up for this one.

From a footballing perspective, things look fairly bleak in both camps. Rangers have just been knocked out of europe on Wednesday after another woeful performance and have injuries, not to mention star centre-back Madjid Bougherra going AWOL. Aberdeen have an impressive injury list aswell, and despite playing some good football in recent weeks, will struggle to field a strong midfield imo. However, Rangers have won only won 1 in the last 8 league games at Aberdeen, with the Dons taking 4 wins.

In terms of sheer value, the Aberdeen @ 4.95 price on Betfair is simply ridiculous. The draw looks tasty aswell, but I'm certainly not ignoring that home price. The fact i'm an Aberdeen fan looks obviously biased, but the stats speak for themselves on this one. Regardless of the fact I'm a fan, I'm sure it would be added to my picks this week for the above reasons anyway. Many Scottish football neutrals will snap up that price aswell. Rangers and Celtic have struggled on the road a lot more this season than previous campaigns i.e. Celtic's recent 3-3 draw away at bottom club Falkirk.
Thank you very much! Your great!

Regards
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Old 11-30-2009, 06:14 AM   #274
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazo View Post
Haven't looked into them as much as I can yet, but this weekend's bets that stand out the most so far are:-
Homes
Blackburn @ 1.90
Fulham @ 1.90
Newcastle @ 1.72 WIN
Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.75 WIN
TSG Hoffenheim @ 1.75
Werder Bremen @ 1.80
Barcelona @ 1.85 WIN
Aberdeen @ 4.50 (I may of course need to explain this one a little bit ) WIN

Aways
Birmingham @ 3.10 WIN
West Brom @ 2.10 WIN

I just took all these prices off Bet365 for convenience atm. Obviously Betfair and Oddschecker will lead you to the better prices i.e. Fulham @ evens on BF, and Aberdeen at 4.95 on BF.
Thanks folks. Yes I (and hopefully we) had a very successful weekend, and on top of those ones I posted earlier in the week made a few big plays on Genoa (won 3-0), Gijon (scraped it 1-0 after missing 2 pens!), and Bilbao (a very impressive 4-1 away win at Almeria).

The Aberdeen game and Barca game were huge scores for me personally (managed to convince myself even more on Aberdeen after writing all that ). The liability on Barca was a lot of course, but luckily both them and Aberdeen held on with 10 men for long periods of their games! Disappointed with Hoffenheim and Fulham but still very very happy overall.

I won't manage to get on here much, if at all over the next 2 weeks, but good luck with whoever you all decide to bet on.
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Old 11-30-2009, 07:33 AM   #275
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by Gazo View Post

I won't manage to get on here much, if at all over the next 2 weeks, but good luck with whoever you all decide to bet on.


Would be very interested in your EuroCup picks for the next week!

Looks like holidays, so hf if its the case!

Regards
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