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Old 11-20-2011, 07:18 PM   #2526
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by TheVig View Post
1-1 -.1u

ytd 44-36-7 +23.45u
How is this -0.1u?
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Old 11-20-2011, 07:40 PM   #2527
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Kev what do you think about this one.

Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham total cards 2-3 14/5


I know the ref dosent give out to many cards but surely in a close game like this and with the defence having to try and catch Bent and Agbonlahor all game there might be a couple for spurs.
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Old 11-20-2011, 07:49 PM   #2528
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx View Post
Dag&Red - Southend @1.83
Norwich - Arsenal @1.70
Brentford - Charlton @2.40
Southampton - Brighton @1.53
Wigan - Blackburn @2.70
Chelsea - Liverpool @4.20
Swansea - Man Utd U2.5 goals @2.00
Not bad imo. Now if I could only stay away from those parlays...
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Old 11-20-2011, 10:43 PM   #2529
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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How is this -0.1u?
you are correct sir, i will update my record. -.25u on the day
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Old 11-21-2011, 05:19 AM   #2530
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Betfair offers 2.16 on Arsenal to finish before Tottenham this season, for small money on the exchanges at this point. Tottenham are 1.57, which seems a tad low. Arsenal seems like decent value but i dont know, they have the same score but Tottenham 2 less played
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Old 11-21-2011, 12:25 PM   #2531
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by ONE OF A KIND View Post
Kev what do you think about this one.

Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham total cards 2-3 14/5


I know the ref dosent give out to many cards but surely in a close game like this and with the defence having to try and catch Bent and Agbonlahor all game there might be a couple for spurs.
Spurs are bottom of the discipline table and only have 5 home bookings all season so I wouldn't count on them for that. In saying that though, Villa have 15 bookings on the road so they will likely be your best bet to rack up the card count.

Mark Halsey is known for being pretty lenient so it's a pretty tough market which is why I'll probably stay away from it but between 2-3 seems like a good shout.

---

Im probably going to opt for the corner market in this one for some interest.

Spurs are averaging 6.7 corners at home while Villa are averaging 3.6 on the road. Bet365 have the line at 12.

Spurs win + Under 12 is something I might go for.
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Old 11-21-2011, 01:30 PM   #2532
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Tottenham to score in both halves @ 2.37


Tottenham have scored in both halves in their last 5 matches in a row and 6 of the last 7.

A Villa have conceded in both halves in their last 4 games in a row and 3 of their last 4 away games.




Also backed HT 1-1, FT 2-1 @ 25/1 & HT 1-1 FT 3-1 @ 45/1


Be intersting to see if R VDV is passed fit since getting injured playing for holland. He scored all 4 goals against villa last season in two 2-1 victories



Any tottenham player to be carded @ 1.61. Tottenham have received at least 1 yellow card in 9 of their 10 games so far. Tottenham have also picked up at least 1 yellow card in their last 10 games against villa

Last edited by punterzpal; 11-21-2011 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 11-21-2011, 03:22 PM   #2533
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Gabby Abundleofwhores has been booked 4 times on the road this season. Have a little bit on him picking up another booking tonight. 5/1
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Old 11-21-2011, 03:33 PM   #2534
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Thanks for the help Kev, im pussying out on the card bet now which i was so happy with before , but might change my mind again 2 minutes before kick off. Im going with 18/5 on wiliam hill for over 2.5 goals and 10-12 corners.
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Old 11-21-2011, 04:24 PM   #2535
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Too many corners!

Luckily Im on Spurs -3.5 on the corner count. Should dig me out of a hole if needs be!
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Old 11-21-2011, 08:25 PM   #2536
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Cashed out everything at paradise poker, software just tilts me too hard.

Left some money to make one big soccer bet though, any hot tips for the CL are appreciated.
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Old 11-21-2011, 08:53 PM   #2537
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by punterzpal View Post
Tottenham to score in both halves @ 2.37


Tottenham have scored in both halves in their last 5 matches in a row and 6 of the last 7.

A Villa have conceded in both halves in their last 4 games in a row and 3 of their last 4 away games.




Also backed HT 1-1, FT 2-1 @ 25/1 & HT 1-1 FT 3-1 @ 45/1


Be intersting to see if R VDV is passed fit since getting injured playing for holland. He scored all 4 goals against villa last season in two 2-1 victories



Any tottenham player to be carded @ 1.61. Tottenham have received at least 1 yellow card in 9 of their 10 games so far. Tottenham have also picked up at least 1 yellow card in their last 10 games against villa
I dont get why people base their bets on this type of information. Like the bookies don't factor in obvious stuff like recent history.
Yeah you are probably the first noticing at least 1 yellow card in 9 of their games or whatever.
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Old 11-21-2011, 09:01 PM   #2538
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

The problem isn't that the books have already accounted for stats like that, the problem is they are basically just statistical noise
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Old 11-21-2011, 11:15 PM   #2539
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I think Man Utd are value tomorrow even at 1.5 Benfica have looked horrendous so far this year
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Old 11-21-2011, 11:41 PM   #2540
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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I think Man Utd are value tomorrow even at 1.5 Benfica have looked horrendous so far this year
I'm a United fan and watch every game, and the same could be said of United lately. With Rooney playing in midfield, Young out and Nani off form the creativity in attack just isn't there and they've been scraping 1-0 wins. I've been betting unders on United lately, and gone 3-0, under 2.5 @2.05 looks pretty good value there. United to win and under 2.5 goals @3.75 looks pretty good as well.

Does Inter seem ridiculously priced to you? 2.5 vs a team that only made the CL because of the scandal in Turkey looks very good to me. Also considering Lille@3.10 and City @2.1.
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Old 11-22-2011, 12:04 AM   #2541
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Inter have been awful so far their league position is an accurate picture of how they have been performing. Not a fan of opposing Russian teams at home esp. against a team as mediocre as Lille
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Old 11-22-2011, 12:35 AM   #2542
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Inter have been awful so far their league position is an accurate picture of how they have been performing. Not a fan of opposing Russian teams at home esp. against a team as mediocre as Lille
Inter have gone 6-1-3 since Ranieri took over, 4-1-1 in the last six games, and the game they lost vs Juventus they played decent and definitely were the better team. They've alseo won 2 away games in a row in the CL. I haven't watched much Serie A this season, but there seem to be some signs of them turning it around lately.

I can see what you are saying about away games in Russia tho, even tho CSKA's record at home in the CL is nowhere near as impressive as Shakhtar's or Zenit's. 3 wins in last 10.
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Old 11-22-2011, 12:44 AM   #2543
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Inter have gone 6-1-3 since Ranieri took over, 4-1-1 in the last six games, and the game they lost vs Juventus they played decent and definitely were the better team. They've alseo won 2 away games in a row in the CL. I haven't watched much Serie A this season, but there seem to be some signs of them turning it around lately.

I can see what you are saying about away games in Russia tho, even tho CSKA's record at home in the CL is nowhere near as impressive as Shakhtar's or Zenit's. 3 wins in last 10.
Yea their results have been better and Trabzonspor are pretty bad so I kind of like that price now. I'm not looking to bet on French teams in the champions league, it's such a weak division now
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:08 AM   #2544
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx View Post
I'm a United fan and watch every game, and the same could be said of United lately. With Rooney playing in midfield, Young out and Nani off form the creativity in attack just isn't there and they've been scraping 1-0 wins. I've been betting unders on United lately, and gone 3-0, under 2.5 @2.05 looks pretty good value there. United to win and under 2.5 goals @3.75 looks pretty good as well.

Does Inter seem ridiculously priced to you? 2.5 vs a team that only made the CL because of the scandal in Turkey looks very good to me. Also considering Lille@3.10 and City @2.1.
I like City and think it's going to be a low scoring game
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:52 AM   #2545
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVig View Post
ytd 44-36-7 +23.30u
bets on a 1-5u scale

Over 3 goals in Villa and Spurs 1.05u to win 1u L
0-1 -1.05u

ytd 44-37-7 + 22.25u
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Old 11-22-2011, 09:01 AM   #2546
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

I like the look of this treble, odds from william hill at 3.95-1


Real madrid only team to score 1/2

Real have not let in a goal in so far in the champions league and Dinamo have not scored a goal, Dinamo also only average 3 shots on target a game.

Man City win 11/10

Cant think of a reason to bet aginst City at the moment

Man utd 4/7

Man Utd will qualify tonight if they win, think Alex will put a strong team out trying to finish it with a game to go.



If you dont like the City bet, you can replace this with Napoli to have more booking points than City at 6/5, Napoli have 15 yellow cards in there 4 games and the referee is Damir Skomina who has given 11 yellows in his 2 games in charge this year.

If you want to know what each team has to do with the last 2 games to reach the knock out stage this page explains it all. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2...ue_group_stage
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Old 11-22-2011, 09:13 AM   #2547
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

OK, a few bets that stand out for me tonight.

Lyon @ 4/5 to beat an Ajax side that are in quite a bit of trouble both on and off the pitch. Injuries not helping their cause, Lyon have lost 2 in a row in the league but CL nights @ home seem to bring out the best in them.

Real to score 1st on 27th min and under @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) seems like really good value here. They tend to fly out of the traps and have covered this bet 9 out of their last 10 games.

Napoli/City over 5.5 cards @ 6/5 (Stan James). This should be a feisty encounter between 2 sides desperate for a result. The referee is always in and around the 5/6 card marker but since this is such a big game and on a big stage I think he might get a little card happy.

Those are the 3 I have my eye on right now. Gonna have another look when teams are announced later tonight.

--

Quote:
Real madrid only team to score 1/2

Real have not let in a goal in so far in the champions league and Dinamo have not scored a goal, Dinamo also only average 3 shots on target a game.
This is a really good shout though quickly checking some prices you can get Real keeping a clean sheet at around 8/13.
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Old 11-22-2011, 10:03 AM   #2548
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Ok 20€ -> 11,187.00€ will prooobably need some rungood.
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Old 11-22-2011, 10:09 AM   #2549
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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The problem isn't that the books have already accounted for stats like that, the problem is they are basically just statistical noise
+1

(Why you never post in the EPL thread any more?)
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Old 11-22-2011, 02:04 PM   #2550
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

where's the epl thread?
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