yeah not surprised at all, fellaini is on fire

Any value in either of the games today?

I have a six-team parlay which all rests on Newcastle today (and I'm a Sunderland fan )

£3 on Everton, Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace, Tranmere, Yeovil and Newcastle pays £175.

How much to hedge?

mackem, up to you - it's obv -EV so it depends how much you need the money basically

Newcastle 0 West Ham 1

Typical scum *****.

lol.

anyway, anyone watching real madrid match? pitch is awful, should have been called off. bit better in 2nd half but still terrible. Got Real at 11/8 to win at 1-1 with 20 mins to go, few minutes to hold on

That pitch was a joke.

Why include Newcastle in the bet, if you know you are gonna hedge anyway?

Wrong thread (didn't wanna start a new), but does anyone know if Betfair quote the same odds online as on their mobile app? It noticed several times yesterday (after refreshing both) that the odds weren't the same. Just wanna know, if there's a bias in one direction that I should be aware of?

Huh?

Doing a 6 team accumulator with one playing a day later than the others is stupid if you are planning on hedging if the first 5 win.

Just do a 5 team on the Saturday teams instead of paying rake twice.

Is one showing odds after commission or something?

Nope, they are just showing two different (although pretty similar) "markets". It's weird.

Paying rake?

The odds quoted have in implicit rake.


_ _ _ _

Does anyone know if it's possible to get historical Betfair (live) odds? Would like to see how different lines moved during time.

http://data.betfair.com/

Sigh dont know why I'm going to spoon feed this to you but.....

You put on 5 teams to win in an accumulator. Prices 1.83, 1.91, 2.1, 2, 1.95.
You get 28.63 total on it and put $10 on to win. Returns 286.3 if it wins (276.3 profit)

You put on a 6 team accumulator with the 5 previous selections and a game the next day priced at 1.95.
You get 55.82 total and put $10 on it. Now the first 5 win and you are left waiting on the final game. You can hedge the final game by backing the opponents at 1.95 (if soccer in a AH +0.5 market). So now you are waiting on 558.20 if they win so you have to back the opponents with 286.26 to guarantee an even payout regardless of what happens.

So you win 558.20 either way, but now you have put on 286.26 and 10 on your two bets so your profit is going to be 558.20-286.26-10 = 261.94

Two mistakes with doing it the second way, you are obviously costing yourself 276.3-261.94 = 14.36 but you also have to have 286.26 available and tied up in doing the hedge which is pointless.

You may say well you dont fully hedge and just back the opponent enough to give you your money back or something. But even then you'd still be better off with the original 5 team accumulator paying out and putting a single bet to your liking on the next team.

thx

Any thoughts on Hinckley match tonight? They're doing **** in the league, are fighting off-field problems, got hammered by the team they're playing in the cup 5-0 last time they played, and Gainsborough -1 are evens :s

Match is Conference North fwiw

Was FA Trophy but no bother, bet -1, -1.5 and -2.5 (at 4/1) and they won 4-1

Consensus regarding international friendlies: more or less value on average? I'm unsure how much the lines incorporate the fact that the teams don't have to win and will be making a lot of subs.

Personally I avoid them like the plague unless there is still a big discrepency between the standard of the teams.

Don't bet on friendlies.

Indeed dont bet on friendlies unless you want to bet the underdogs maybe.

Anybody interested in starting a thread on the barclays premier league? Or posting their picks here.

I'll be making my picks later and will post them up