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04-09-2012 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
whenever football-data.co.uk updates their results file ill run my monte carlo and put up top 4 probabilities. what are the odds for newcastle? spurs been in poor form but their remaining fixtures are somewhat easier than newcastle who have to play city and chelsea
ars @1.08
spurs @1.62
chels @3.5
newc @4.5
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04-09-2012 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
ytd: +20.147


Sunderland +.5 @1.962L
Newcastle Win @1.595W
Norwich Win @10.18W
Fulham Win @3.62L

Sunderland, Everton U2.5 @1.741L
Norwich, Tottenham U3.5 @1.73W
Stoke, Villa U2.5 @1.676W
Fulham, Chelsea U2.5@1.971W
today: 5-3 +9.152u
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u

ill get back to you guys about liverpool/blackburn and top 4 as soon as i can
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04-09-2012 , 08:36 PM
the site ive been stripping remaining fixtures from is messing up. anyone have another site that lists all remaining fixtures in one table?
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04-09-2012 , 09:08 PM
might not be what ur looking for but i use this

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/pr...ewerb_GB1.html
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04-09-2012 , 09:10 PM
WBA vs City +1.75 @ 1.9 is good enough for me btw
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04-09-2012 , 09:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT
might not be what ur looking for but i use this

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/pr...ewerb_GB1.html
thanks i actually found some other site and dealt with rewriting the code to strip and format the fixtures. if i did everything right ill have some predictions in 10 or 15
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04-09-2012 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT
WBA vs City +1.75 @ 1.9 is good enough for me btw
wba for the win @14 atm - very good price, think ima be laying the city win at least
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04-09-2012 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yeaFMLdegen
@everyone

at what point/line for betting a liverpool win over blackburn becomes +ev?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jp1444
ars @1.08
spurs @1.62
chels @3.5
newc @4.5
finally fixed all my bugs. gonna throw out the relegation numbers again because they may have been affected by the issues i was having.
the numbers my model spits out are...

p(liverpool win) = 0.365405
p(blackburn win) = 0.362408
p(draw) = 0.272187

this means i still have liverpool as being overvalued and will be taking blackburn tomorrow (assuming no massive line move). pepe being out cant help them either. ill post the pick officially later tonight when i actually place it.

top 4s
gooners - .9807
spurs - .5762
chelsea - .2053
newcastle - .2378

relegation
Wolves - .9863
Wigan - .4708
Blackburn - .4647
QPR - .6268
Bolton - .44
Villa - .0112
WBA - .0002 lol

while im at it ill throw this out since theres been chatter in the thread
p(city win) = 0.741052
p(WBA win) = 0.091892
p(draw) = 0.167056

Last edited by sayhey69; 04-09-2012 at 11:07 PM.
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04-10-2012 , 01:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
today: 5-3 +9.152u
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u
Blackburn Win @3.68
Blackburn, Pool U2' @1.962

gl
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04-10-2012 , 01:14 PM
Good job sayhey68, ty. Blackburn - Liverpool is not a game i wanna get involved in, ill stick to scotland div 1 for today and watch EPL for fun. GL, 3.65 seemed like a tad short at first glance but starting to think theres value at 3.5>~
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04-10-2012 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT
Good job sayhey68, ty. Blackburn - Liverpool is not a game i wanna get involved in, ill stick to scotland div 1 for today and watch EPL for fun. GL, 3.65 seemed like a tad short at first glance but starting to think theres value at 3.5>~
it appears that not getting involved in this game would have been my best play as well
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04-10-2012 , 03:34 PM
What was that pk attempt Yak?
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04-10-2012 , 03:41 PM
always nice to lose the under with 10 minutes to go in the first half. just turned the game on. howd doni get sent off? yakubu missed a pen?
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04-10-2012 , 03:47 PM
It was god awful, he basically rolled it to the 3rd string keeper. Doni took out Hoilett in the box for the auto red card.
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04-10-2012 , 04:17 PM
lol that flanagan guy won't last long in football. he had a god awful game the other day now tonights horrific backpass which gets doni sent off
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04-10-2012 , 04:51 PM
2-2 in blackburn match , 90th minute.

what's with all the cards here? I hope no one had U9.5 cards.

Last edited by DMMx69; 04-10-2012 at 04:55 PM. Reason: ****. i jinxed this for sure.
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04-10-2012 , 05:20 PM
absolutely absurd game. like sayhey said any1s lucky not to be involved. maxi scored 2 goals within 18 min.
doni got sent off but it wasnt a giant mistake, hoilett was gonna score being 1v1 v doni.
yakubu made WOAT penalty, then 3rd keeper shoulda been sent off after the WOAT effort of saving a ball & kicking one right on yakubus legs i think it was, then a dece penalty. yakubu header from a free kick then a carroll later for 3ps so thats when u know its completely unpredictable
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04-10-2012 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
ytd: 34-33 +29.299u

Blackburn Win @3.68L
Blackburn, Pool U2' @1.962L
today: 0-2 -2u
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u

not exactly the kind of game i was expecting. im not sure how brad jones doesnt get sent off for essentially the same foul as doni. tbh i woulda been fine with doni just getting yellow and the pk but if youre gonna send him off dont you also have to send off jones
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04-10-2012 , 06:31 PM
What can I add to that Blackburn - Liverpool debacle except, "LOL".
I played it Over 2,5G just to be contrary to sayhey69.

Uneasy about tomorrow's Serie A matches; got a single unit on Udinese winning in Rome @ 3.80, hoping Roma doesn't find its pair too soon. The rest of the lines suck and the bet is one of pure spite, fair warning.

Last edited by Comfortably Nub; 04-10-2012 at 06:34 PM. Reason: FAIR WARNING
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04-10-2012 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
today: 0-2 -2u
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u

not exactly the kind of game i was expecting. im not sure how brad jones doesnt get sent off for essentially the same foul as doni. tbh i woulda been fine with doni just getting yellow and the pk but if youre gonna send him off dont you also have to send off jones
the difference is hoilett had a clear goalscoring opportunity when he got taken out by doni, in the 2nd scenario yak didnt, as he headed the ball away from goal...

loading up on the everton win/everton to qualify vs l'pool this weekend in the FA cup now, epc with jones in goal
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04-10-2012 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Comfortably Nub
What can I add to that Blackburn - Liverpool debacle except, "LOL".
I played it Over 2,5G just to be contrary to sayhey69.

Uneasy about tomorrow's Serie A matches; got a single unit on Udinese winning in Rome @ 3.80, hoping Roma doesn't find its pair too soon. The rest of the lines suck and the bet is one of pure spite, fair warning.
fading my totals recently has been profitable. i think im back to break even on the year on those. good thing ive ran hot as tits on the other bets
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04-11-2012 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
ytd: 34-35 +27.299u
Wigan Win @9.12 risking .5u
Swansea Win @3.64

Swansea U2' @1.885

gl
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04-11-2012 , 05:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sayhey69
Wigan Win @9.12 risking .5u
hm? why? :0
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04-11-2012 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OHaiSup
hm? why? :0
wigans not as bad a team as their record shows and theyre playing well atm. they also have more to play for than united although i dont think saf will let united get lazy. its pretty marginal in the end esp at the current price.
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04-11-2012 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMUTTTT
absolutely absurd game. like sayhey said any1s lucky not to be involved. maxi scored 2 goals within 18 min.
doni got sent off but it wasnt a giant mistake, hoilett was gonna score being 1v1 v doni.
yakubu made WOAT penalty, then 3rd keeper shoulda been sent off after the WOAT effort of saving a ball & kicking one right on yakubus legs i think it was, then a dece penalty. yakubu header from a free kick then a carroll later for 3ps so thats when u know its completely unpredictable
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